Thursday, March 30, 2017

This May Make the Arab Spring Look Like Nothing

In a resolution being put forward by Arab states before UNESCO for vote in May would contest Israeli sovereignty over ALL of Jerusalem. It would declare that "any action taken by Israel, the Occupying Power, to impose its laws, jurisdiction, and administration on the City of Jerusalem, are illegal and therefore null and void and have no validity whatsoever."
This resolution is the first time the Arab states have asked a UNESCO board to reject Israeli sovereignty over Western Jerusalem. It plunges the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural body (UNESCO) even further into the highly emotional and contested Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The resolution was submitted by Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, and Sudan. It was drafted just as President Trump is going to make a decision on the move of the USA Embassy back to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. (Refer to the following excerpts from a recent article in The Atlantic on this.)
It is as though the nation's that make up UNESCO are trying to create even greater conflict, even promote war. A military conflict is imminent. Between Israel's Iron Dome, and Arrow system, and it's the newly received and tested F35, and other modern systems that the Israeli possess, Israel should be able to deal with air threats. I just wonder how it handles the insurgency uprising we can expect in the West Bank, and whether Hamas forces would attempt a suicidal crossing out of Gaza. Attacks would be mounted out of Lebanon, but will they be limited to rockets and missiles? Iran is sure to be involved through it's proxies, but direct military action is not out of the question. Jordan's King is wild card too, though much of their population hates Israel with a passion and would love nothing more than to raise arms.
For a long time I have said that when the USA moves our Embassy, the shit will hit the fan. I say Trump will NOT renew the waiver which keeps our embassy in Tel Aviv. Israel and the USA are choosing a site and will have an announcement soon.
In 1995, when Bill Clinton was President, Congress passed a bill requiring that the USA move it's embassy back to Jerusalem. The only exception is an option for the President to sign a 6 month waiver, which needs to be signed every 6 months by the President, otherwise the embassy must be moved. Every President has done so since then. Obama signed in 8 times, the last time being in Dec 2016. President Trump campaigned on the promise to NOT SIGN the waiver! Other Presidents BROKE THEIR CAMPAIGN PLEDGE. I say Trump WILL KEEP HIS PROMISE. And i believe members of UNESCO KNOW IT. And, UNESCO motion seems to me to be a preparation for Trump's decision to relocate the embassy.
Moving our Embassy to Jerusalem will be treated as a declaration of war by a VERY large segment of the Muslim/Arab world! And the impact will not be limited to Israel. Let us keep in mind that under NATO, an attack, or declaration of war on one country is a declaration on all the NATO allies. Violent uprisings and Jihad can be expected in France, the UK, and Germany. Not to sound apocalyptic, but this waiver issue is much larger than most people are aware of.
One thing is for sure, the potential effects of the US embassy move to Jerusalem are NOT priced in to the stock market or the bond and gold markets either. Although the increased volume of gold trading activity since January is pretty incredible, the question is whether that is sign of a fear of inflation or a fear of Trump, or a fear of what? Gold has stayed in a range of around 1200 to 1250 for 4 months, which could well go on for longer. But my guess is that it when it breaks out of that range one way or the other, we will have the answer to that question. And we may have that answer, like it or not, when Trump keeps his campaign promise. The last Embassy Waiver expires in June!