Wednesday, December 25, 2019

2020 Vision


I enjoy taking a stab at predictions for the New Year. Like goal setting, it's something I try to do at the end of every year. Here's my stab at 2020.

2020 is going to be very different.  I forsee a number events and developments which will make 2020 dramatically different than 2019, or even the last decade.

  1. We are going to have a rip roaring economy.  The best GDP growth in 20+ years. Inflation will be moderate thanks to several items below.
  2. Economies around the world are going to take off, especially in Asia, India and the U.K. This will be a major multi-year expansion which will lift trade and the USA economy, and coincide with the Administration's new trade deals.  The USMCA will start to pay big dividends as well.  USA farmers are big winners, but they certainly are not alone!
  3. Faith in God is going to make a comeback.  The unborn finally gain some rights. End-of-times focus fuels a revival in Christianity. There will also be continued  growth in Satanism!  
  4. USA energy efficiency and production are going to achieve extraordinary improvements.  Breakthroughs, discoveries and consumer behavior are going to combine to provide great promise for meeting our energy needs for the rest of the century in cleaner ways. Recycling and waste management will be a positive factor. 
  5. The debate and concerns over climate changes dramatically for the better. 
  6. Labor force productivity is going to take off. 
  7. Labor force participation will rise measurably and add significantly to the GDP.
  8. Business capital investment will accelerate and increase markedly, contributing to the GDP. 
  9. The USA will make enormous investments in infrastructure.  This will pay big dividends in energy conservation and labor force productivity in the long run. 
  10. Household income, wealth and spending all shoot up. This will result in a very active consumer that is making substantial durable goods purchases. Big ticket purchases will be big. The consumer will contribute to the GDP expansion in a major way.
  11. America is finally going to make significant inroads to fixing health care.  This will come through big changes on multiple fronts including but not limited to delivery systems, personal accountability, new treatment methods, cost structure improvements, liability reforms, approaches to insurance coverage, etc.
  12. There will be largest shakeup of the Democratic party in history as findings from the Durham investigation rocks Washington DC.  A new star will arise to lead the party. Many long time politicians in the party will be replaced. 
  13. Great turnover in Congress. Lots of incumbents in Washington from both parties will lose their seats in Congress or choose to retire. Term limits have a chance of passing.
  14. Donald Trump will win reelection by the largest landslide since 1936. Such a victory is going to give Trump the strongest mandate any President has had in a over a century. He will continue to remake the courts, drain the swamp, cut government programs and waste and put through his  legislative agenda.  He will fill another Supreme Court Justice, but probably not until 2021
  15. Distrust in the FBI, DOJ, CIA and FISA court will cause an historic nonpartisan review and important reforms. 
  16. With a new government formed in Israel, the Trump Administration will put forward an historic and vastly different approach to peace between Israel the Palestinians and other Arab nations. And it will work!  
  17. Iran is further isolated.  A Revolution is coming.  An Israel and USA military action will damage Iran's ability to be a nuclear military threat or to use advance weapons. This action will be much more than an "escalation." 
  18. The USA Military and Pentagon will dramatically rethink how the USA approaches defense and our role in being the world's police force. Significant and lasting strategic and tactical changes will involve new wespons technology and require new training.  
  19. The USA takes big steps forward in resolving immigration and gun violence. The border wall, cooperation with Mexico and deportations will collectively result in steep declines in illegal crossings and a drop in USA crime by illegal aliens.
  20. Black swans may appear including major environmental disasters! 
DESTRUCTION and REBIRTH