NOW WHAT??

A transformer destroyed by a geomagnetic storm in 1989. 

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is a unique forum where the governments of 37 democracies with market-based economies collaborate to develop policy standards to promote sustainable economic growth. In 2011 OECD issued a report on the impacts of solar storms. It stated, “Electric power is modern society’s cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend.”

The push for electric powered vehicles, electric heat pumps, electric stoves along with the demand to power the internet, communications and electric devices of all kinds increasing our dependence dramatically!  It is also bringing our current electric grid to the point failure.

In a late response, governments and electric utility companies are emphasizing the need and urgency for upgrading the electric grid.  You might say "they put the electric cart before the horse." 

Another reason for overhauling the national grid is the possibility of "extreme" geomagnetic storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 5-point Geomagnetic Storms Rating Scale. A G5 geomagnetic storm is an intense geomagnetic disturbance classified as “Extreme.” 

An extreme geomagnetic storm can cause devastating damage that would leave major areas of the world without power and communications for weeks or months. The ripple effects would be catastrophic, spelling large scale havoc, famine and death. 

A 2008 workshop run by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in the USA on the Societal and Economic effects of Space Weather estimated a $1-2 trillion loss for such an event in the first year alone and recovery times of four to 10 years. A similar group dubbed SolarMAX gathered in Europe last year and studied the multiple technological infrastructure risks and knock-on societal effects.

Of particular concern is the vulnerability of the very large power transformers that step voltages in our power grids. One of the purposes of the transformers is to balance loads and prevent grid failure. Unexpected geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) at the Earth's surface caused by rapid changes in the geomagnetic field caused from a space weather event can permanently damage transformers. 

Large power transformers are generally custom designed for each location, cost on the order of $10 million each and have replacement times that are from many months to years. Power networks do not usually have backup transformers. 

The NAS report estimates up to 350 US transformers would be at risk of failure in a solar super storm. Translation: A G5 event could leave something like 130 million people without power. 

The knock-on effects of a long-term power outage include the loss lighting, heating, food and medicine spoilage, water shortage and untreated sewage. The disruption of telecommunication. GPS navigation and transportion would hamper emergency and recovery efforts. To be clear, it would be a national scale disaster and not just in the USA!  

One of the SolarMAX collaborators, Ashley Dale, writing in a recent article in Physics World, explored a European scenario where the collapse of the power grid leaves the hundred-odd nuclear reactors struggling to find enough power or generator fuel to maintain the systems needed for the month long cool-down to prevent meltdown, such reactors rarely having more than a week’s worth of backup power. 

There is corroborating evidence that the estimates of the possible force of solar events are in the right ballpark.  Recently analysis of the frequency of solar flares on other sun-like stars using data from the Kepler spacecraft telescope launched in 2009 reveals that there are solar events with orders of magnitude larger than the G5 Carrington in 1859.

Storm threats are coupled with a highly disconcerting fact that the Earth's magnetic field has been rapidly weakening over recent centuries. The Earth's magnetic field protects us from space weather threats. Reports indicate the Earth's magnetic field is upwards of 25% weaker than it was in the 1800's.  Therefore, we are far more vulnerable today than in 1859 when the last G5 storm struck the United States and fried telegraph wires and sparks set fire to the operator's stations.

In today’s immeasurably more connected and electricity dependent world, the consequences of a G5 storm stike would much more severe than in 1859.  Today, lengthy disruptions in power, communications, transportation and supply chains would devastate society!

It’s hard to appreciate just how many aspects of modern life rely on technologies that could be affected. As Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics told National Geographic in 2011, ”Every time you purchase a gallon of gas with your credit card, that’s a satellite transaction.” A giant storm could disrupt our GPS systems, communication with planes in flight and other crucial satellite-based technologies, including the World Wide Internet. 

What are the chances of such a storm hitting earth? 

We will absolutely experience another G5 geomagnetic storm in the future. The sun goes through regular 11 year activity cycles, including producing solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The world has barely dodged several bullets even in this decade!  

While not all of these solar eruptions align with Earth or possess the intensity to cause a G5 storm. The historical record shows that such powerful storms have and will occur and do hit Earth. It is quite possible that some episodes described in the bible correspond to such solar events. Doug Biesecker of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center, "We just don't know when."

Research in 2012 by Peter Riley looked at this question and estimated there was a 12% chance-class in the next 10 years.  The farther in time you go out the greater the probability.  I look at the chances this way -- solar events of this magnitude have a pattern of reoccurring every 150-200 years. The last event, known as the Carrington event, was in 1859, 164 years ago.  The frightening truth is that there are even larger Solar events that occur at a frequency of 6,000, and 12,000 years which fall into today’s time frame.  Those events are species ending, but even those are survivable.  You and I are proof of that!

READY OR NOT, HERE IT COMES

If a massive CME were spotted, we would have at best 3 days advance warning. There are some measures electric utilities could take to protect their equipment, such as disconnecting transformers. Some satellites could be switched into a safe mode to minimize damage.  Realistically, society would have just enough time to go into panic mode as absolute chaos and mayhem ensues.  It is fair to say that society could collapse. Surely there would be large numbers of humans struggling to survive. 

We should prepare for the worst.  Some day a huge explosion of magnetic force and plasma from the sun's corona, is going to produce a extremely powerful geomagnetic storms striking Earth with enormous power, showing no mercy to our planet resulting in global catastrophe and endangering our lives. 

To confront these threats, the U.S. government published its National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan in October 2015, outlining activities to improve the understanding, monitoring, prediction, and mitigation of space weather hazards. This "Strategy and Action Plan" specified what federal agencies and industry must do in the coming years to be prepared for not only forecasting an extreme event, but ensuring the nation is resilient to the impacts of such an extreme event.

I don't know about you, but I do NOT have much confidence in the government, especially these days.  Must I remind you that after the election President Biden assigned Kamala Harris to address our border crisis and in May 2023 President Joe Biden named VP Kamala Harris czar of AI for America. 

PREPAREDNESS AND SELF RELIANCE ARE THE REAL KEYS TO SURVIVAL

In conclusion, if you are starting to feel like a sitting duck you might ask yourself what can we do to personally prepare ourselves. As spouses and parents with children at home we have a greater responsibility and therefore obligation to provide protection.  In essence, we need to buy ourselves time and security to ride out the storm and it's aftermath.  

We may not be able to plan and prepare our way out of a 6,000 or 12,000 year solar event, but we can survive a G5 event!

So I will put it to you this way. Imagine you have just heard an announcement that a G5 geomagnetic storm is hurtling toward earth an will strike in 48 hours. It is too late to plan and organize. What are your next steps? Now what??

EPILOGUE:  We can prepare for a G5 storm and my name isn't Noah. A G5 storm is only a warm up act.  Artificial Intelligence is the real threat to humanity.  That's when it truly will take a supernatural force to shut off the power to rescue humanity. 

As it says in the Bible "In a flash, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet."  

Look Up!