THE 5% WARNING

The Fiscal Story We Have Not Finished Telling 

By Jonah Ritter · September 16, 2026 

A 10-year Treasury yield near 5% gets my attention. The last time we saw a rate around this level was before the financial crisis. That does not mean another crisis is imminent. But it does raise a fair question: Are investors demanding a higher return because they expect stronger growth, because inflation may persist, or because lending to a heavily indebted government for ten years now requires a bigger premium? 

The answer matters. A 10-year yield reflects expectations about future short-term rates, inflation, and compensation for holding a long-term bond. It is not a direct reading of today's inflation rate. Nor does every dollar of existing federal debt immediately refinance at the new yield. But as maturing debt is replaced and new deficits are financed, higher rates steadily raise the government's interest bill.  

That creates the feedback loop I worry about: more interest expense adds to the deficit; the deficit adds to the debt; and a larger debt can push interest expense higher still. The danger grows if investors begin to doubt that economic growth and federal revenue can keep pace. 

The deficit Trump walked into 

We should start with the calendar. On January 17, 2025—before President Trump took office—the Congressional Budget Office projected a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal 2025, a fiscal year that was already more than three months underway. It also projected federal debt held by the public rising from about 100% of GDP in 2025 to 118% in 2035 under the laws then in place. Those projections show that the debt and much of the 2025 deficit were inherited. They do not mean every subsequent outcome belongs to a previous administration. CBO's January 2025 outlook. 

By February 2026, CBO still projected an approximately $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal 2026 and debt reaching 120% of GDP in 2036. Its update also shows why attribution has to be honest: CBO estimated that the 2025 reconciliation law and immigration-related administrative actions increased projected cumulative deficits, while higher tariffs reduced them. A president inherits a budget trajectory and then changes it, for better or worse, through policy and economic results. CBO's February 2026 outlook. 

Why cuts can take time to appear 

An announcement is not the same as a lower Treasury payment. Some employees who accepted the administration's deferred resignation offer continued receiving pay and benefits through September 30, 2025. In those cases, the payroll benefit would begin later. Other personnel reductions may involve severance, accrued leave, continuing benefits, or work shifted to contractors. The relevant figure is the net reduction in actual spending, not the number of departures announced. Office of Personnel Management's deferred resignation FAQ. 

Fraud and waste work the same way. Identifying an improper payment does not instantly put cash back in the Treasury. Savings appear when future payments are stopped; recoveries appear when money is actually collected. Some discoveries may prevent large future losses even if the deficit in the discovery year barely changes. And an estimated improper payment is not automatically proof of fraud or a sum that can all be recovered. 

There is also a scale problem. Federal civilian payroll is one component of a budget dominated by Social Security, health programs, defense, and interest. Genuine administrative savings matter, but they must be large and sustained to move a deficit measured in trillions. 

What is happening beneath the headline? 

One useful measure is the primary deficit: the deficit with net interest costs removed. It tells us whether current revenue covers current noninterest spending. It is a clearer way to spot operating improvements, although it does not make interest disappear from the government's actual bills. 

CBO projects a primary deficit of 2.6% of GDP for fiscal 2026. Its August monthly review shows that, through the first eleven months of the fiscal year, net interest outlays were $111 billion higher than in the comparable 2025 period. After adjusting for shifts in payment dates, the primary deficit was modestly lower than a year earlier. That offers some evidence of improvement beneath the headline, but not enough yet to establish a lasting turnaround. 

CBO's 2026 outlook; CBO's August 2026 budget review. 

There is a legitimate case for patience: inherited commitments, payroll arrangements, contracts, and enforcement changes take time to show up in cash spending. But 2028 is a testable hypothesis, not a guaranteed payoff date. We should expect to see measurable improvement in the primary deficit and debt relative to the economy as those changes mature. 

What the deficit builds

The deficit tells us how much the government must borrow. It does not tell us whether the money paid for ongoing expenses or helped build something the economy can use for years. Congress provided $12.5 billion to begin modernizing the air traffic control system, replacing aging equipment and facilities. In September 2026, the Transportation Department announced $1.1 billion in airport grants for projects including runways, terminals, a control tower, and equipment that helps controllers track vehicles on the ground. Construction also began this year on the replacement Blatnik Bridge, a freight and commuter link between Minnesota and Wisconsin, using a federal grant awarded in 2024. FAA; Transportation Department airport grants; Transportation Department bridge announcement.

These projects still cost money, and their value depends on finishing them efficiently. But safer flights, more reliable bridges, and less congested airports can support commerce long after the construction bills are paid. When we judge federal spending, we should ask not only “How much did it cost?” but also “What did the country gain?”

Signs the economy may have more room to grow

There is also good news that deserves attention. In the second quarter of 2026, real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 4.2%. That second measure captures household spending and private fixed investment and suggests firmer underlying private demand than the headline GDP number alone. It is one quarter, not a settled growth trend. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

Capital is still coming into American businesses. Foreign investors spent $232.2 billion acquiring, establishing, or expanding U.S. businesses in 2025, up 49.5% from 2024; manufacturing accounted for 52.5% of the total. Most of that money purchased existing businesses, so it would be misleading to call the entire amount new factories. The longer-term opportunity is for ownership, new plant construction, equipment spending, and supplier investment to turn into more output here. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

The 2025 investment figures do not capture the scale of what has since been announced. President Trump has spoken of trillions of dollars in planned U.S. investment, and the "White House lists commitments" from American companies and foreign governments across manufacturing, technology, energy, and infrastructure. In 2026, the United States and Japan selected the first projects under Japan’s $550 billion investment commitment, showing how a broad pledge can begin to take shape in specific projects. This is a substantial potential source of future growth. The announced totals cover different years and types of commitments, however, including planned spending and purchases; they are not a measure of money already invested or factories already producing. The test is how much becomes financed construction, equipment, jobs, and output in the United States. U.S. Department of Commerce." 

New factories and AI infrastructure can expand capacity, and AI tools could raise what each worker produces. Those gains would help businesses earn more, pay higher wages, and generate tax revenue without requiring a higher tax rate. But productivity gains are earned through deployment and actual output, not through announcements of future projects. Manufacturing construction has been substantial, though recent construction data also show a slowdown from its earlier pace. Federal Reserve monetary policy report; Census construction spending release. 

Allied defense spending adds another potential source of demand for American manufacturing. NATO reports that European allies and Canada increased core defense expenditure by nearly 20% in 2025 compared with 2024. Allies have also committed to invest 5% of GDP in defense and related security needs by 2035, including at least 3.5% for core defense. That creates opportunities for U.S. producers and suppliers of air defense systems, aircraft, electronics, drones, and emerging autonomous technologies. Successful exports could support factory expansion, skilled jobs, research, and earnings here at home. The spending targets do not guarantee U.S. orders: allies may buy from their own industries, and contracts take time to become production and revenue. NATO's 2026 spending update; The Hague Summit Declaration. 

Public safety belongs in the economic picture

Crime takes a toll that a GDP table cannot fully show. Violence destroys lives and property; addiction tears through families and workplaces; fear changes where people shop, invest, hire, and raise children. Safer communities can make it easier for businesses to operate and for people to participate in the economy. That benefit matters even when it cannot be converted into a neat deficit estimate. 

The border numbers changed quickly after the administration took office. DHS reported that encounters with gotaways—people detected crossing who evaded apprehension—were down about 95% during Trump's first 100 days. In June 2026, DHS reported 13 consecutive months with no Border Patrol releases at the border. That describes a specific release practice for people apprehended by Border Patrol; it does not mean no one entered the country unlawfully or that every type of admission ended. The abrupt change is an important result of the administration's border policy, though a claim about its precise effect on nationwide crime would require separate evidence. DHS first-100-days report; DHS June 2026 release. 

The broader public safety numbers are striking. The FBI estimates that violent crime fell 9.3% in 2025, the largest one-year decline in its national violent-crime rate estimates since they began in 1936. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell 18.1%, robbery 18.5%, aggravated assault 7.2%, and rape 7.6%. Property crime fell 12.4%, including a 22.7% drop in motor vehicle theft. The estimated murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 tied the rates recorded in 1955 and 1956. These are national estimates based on crimes reported to participating agencies. FBI 2025 crime report; FBI account of the decline. 

Drug deaths offer another measure of human and economic relief. The CDC's provisional estimates show opioid-involved overdose deaths fell about 19%, from 55,296 in 2024 to 44,564 in 2025. DEA testing found that the share of fentanyl pills it analyzed containing a potentially lethal dose fell from 76% in fiscal 2023 to 29% in fiscal 2025. That is a comparison of tested pills, not proof that all fentanyl sold in America became equally less dangerous. The DEA also reports major seizures, although seizure totals alone cannot tell us how much drug supply ultimately reached users. CDC provisional 2025 data; DEA fentanyl testing and seizures. 

We should give credit for the sharp border shift and take the 2025 crime decline seriously. We should also get the timeline right: overdose deaths were already falling before January 2025, and a nationwide crime total does not by itself identify which federal, state, or local policy caused the decline. That is precisely why critical thinking matters. When we look only at the deficit, we miss gains in safety and human welfare. When we attribute every favorable statistic to one election, we miss the evidence that would tell us which improvements can last. CDC on the earlier overdose decline. 

The growth case—and its test 

A strong economy can make a large debt easier to carry because the denominator—GDP—grows, incomes and tax receipts rise, and the government has more capacity to service what it owes. That may be one reason some investors are willing to give the fiscal story more time. Still, growth alone cannot be assumed to outrun persistent primary deficits and rising interest costs. Strong demand can also keep inflation and long-term rates elevated; the second-quarter PCE price index rose at a 5.3% annualized rate, a reminder that the inflation question has not vanished. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

The 10-year yield may be telling us several things at once: America has real prospects for investment and growth, while lenders want greater compensation for inflation uncertainty and a large supply of government debt. We cannot know the precise mix from the yield alone. 

I am willing to give delayed savings and new investment time to work. But the evidence I want to see is concrete: sustained productivity and private investment, a falling primary deficit, interest costs stabilizing relative to federal revenue, and debt no longer growing faster than the economy. If those measures improve, a 5% Treasury yield will look more like the price of a growing economy. If they do not, it will look more like a warning we should have taken seriously.

HISTORY MAY JUDGE DIFFERENTLY

By Jonah Ritter

Standing before the Lincoln Memorial today, it is easy to imagine that Abraham Lincoln was always revered. He was not. During his presidency, opponents in the North as well as the South attacked his judgment, his character, and the war he led. His 1860 victory came with less than half the popular vote in a four-way contest. The nation that later placed him in a marble temple had once been bitterly divided over him.

The contrast is striking, but it needs one important detail: Americans began proposing a national monument soon after his death. In 1867, Congress created the Lincoln Monument Association. Political disagreements and practical problems stalled its plan. Construction of the memorial we know began in 1914, and its dedication came in 1922—fifty-seven years after Lincoln's death. The National Park Service tells that history plainly.

Time did not make every argument against Lincoln vanish. It gave later generations a fuller view of the Union he preserved and the emancipation he advanced. Imagine the United States if the seceding states had become a permanent separate nation. We cannot prove what that country, or ours, would have become. Yet asking what a decision prevented is part of judging what it accomplished.

That is what comes to mind as I watch Washington change today. President Trump's planned White House ballroom is being judged while construction and controversy are still fresh. People have real questions about its size, design, cost, and the changes to the East Wing. Future presidents may have a different question: does this room allow the White House to host the large events it has long struggled to accommodate? Decades of use will tell us something that today's renderings cannot.

Rendering of the 250th anniversary arch planned for Memorial Circle, where preparatory excavation has been announced.”

The proposed arch commemorating America's 250th anniversary makes the Lincoln comparison even more direct. It is a monument, meant to outlive the administration that proposed it. The National Capital Planning Commission advanced preliminary site and building plans in July 2026. That approval does not settle whether the arch should be built, whether its scale belongs in that setting, or what visitors will think of it fifty years from now. It does mean that today's political debate is only the opening chapter of its possible history.

Washington's public spaces during a season of restoration—fountains, sculpture, and monuments receiving renewed attention for America's 250th year.

There is also less dramatic work underway: taking care of the capital we already have. The National Park Service describes a broad effort to repair Washington's historic fountains, stonework, sculpture, and public spaces in time for the anniversary and beyond. The Columbus Circle fountain at Union Station returned to operation in 2026 after being silent since 2007. The Meridian Hill cascade has reopened, and the gilded equestrian groups near the Lincoln Memorial have received attention as well. My collage illustrates the work at several familiar landmarks. It is fair to scrutinize workmanship and expense; it is also fair to ask what long neglect would have cost them.

The most consequential question, however, may not involve marble, gold, or water. It may involve Iran. Without American action against Iran's nuclear facilities, how much closer might the regime have come to a nuclear weapon? That is a counterfactual, not a fact we can measure. The strikes damaged facilities and set back activity, but the length of that setback cannot yet be established. In September 2026, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it lacked access to affected facilities and could not verify previously declared enriched uranium. I hope the danger has been halted for a long time. I cannot honestly say inspectors have confirmed that the entire program has ended.

A suitable landing for the Commander in Chief: The South Lawn has long welcomed Marine One. This before-and-after comparison shows how the landing area might be given a more fitting appearance beside the White House.

There is a second possibility in Iran that makes the Lincoln analogy more human. If the Iranian people gain the freedom to choose a government that represents them instead of the Islamic revolutionary regime, that would be an emancipation in their own right. It would belong to them, not to an American president. And as Lincoln's story reminds us, freedom brings the hard work of building a durable nation after a profound division.

I am not claiming that Trump is Lincoln, or that a ballroom is a memorial. I am asking how we judge a contested undertaking while we are still standing inside the contest. A building's usefulness emerges over years. A restored fountain proves itself by continuing to run. A monument takes meaning from generations who visit it. And the full consequences of a decision about Iran will depend on a future that has not arrived.

Lincoln's memorial offers no guarantee about any of these outcomes. It offers a caution about certainty. History sees farther than a headline can.

SAME PLAYBOOK, NEW TEAM, NEW PLAYERS

In the 1930s, economic desperation made many Germans receptive to Hitler’s promises and restored national greatness. He exploited existing antisemitism, falsely blaming Jews for Germany’s hardships and giving frustrated people a target for their anger. His appeal combined a promised better future with scapegoating and national grievance. 

The DSA isn't a "Party" yet. But they are writing the script. Blaming Israel, billionaires, capitalism, Trump and MAGA is reviving old evil spirits.

Who will the Left cast for the part of the charismatic, convincing orator? Bernie's too old. AOC says too many stupid things. They need a fresh face without prior political baggage, but with enough political credibility to fool the masses. Hmmm, who could it be?  

I am not saying that the DSA represents the return of the NAZI party!! I am saying it is a deceptively dangerous political movement that threatens the American way of life.

Time can provide evidence to assess the comparison. A rapid rise in popularity alone shows growing influence, but not dangerous intent. More telling would be whether that growth accompanies collective scapegoating, acceptance of political violence, suppression of dissent. Those are observable tests.

HERE IS A CLUE

In the book "Hitler’s Professors" from 1946 by survivor Max Weinreich, he details how the masses were brought into power by the universities and far left. 

Clue: Zohran Mamdani was groomed by his far left-wing parents to become a radical activist in the Communist mold. His father, Mahmood Mamdani, was a Marxist and a Professor at Columbia University.

Look Up In The Sky

During the 30s in America, we saw the rise of the comic book character "Superman." He was able to leap tall buildings and defended the "American Way." Hmmm, who could that be. 

Hilter's propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels accused Superman of being a Jew.

Some years back, I blogged about Superman as a quasi-messiah figure in a post I titled "Superman As A savior." 

VISIONING A BETTER WORLD CONTINUED

VISIONING A BETTER WORLD: THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

Visioning A Better World Part I

Rubio’s effort to strengthen regional partnerships connects American security to the resources and industrial capacity our future requires.

In “Visioning a Better World,” I explored the greater promise of the Abraham Accords: nations can create practical reasons for peace through trade, investment, and security cooperation. Shared prosperity gives people something valuable to protect.

That discussion also pointed toward a shift in America’s own hemisphere. This follow-up explores why that shift matters.

America cannot afford to surrender its industrial capacity or become excessively dependent on China for the materials that keep our industries operating. Bringing factories home is only part of the task. Those factories need dependable access to resources, facilities that process them, and transportation networks that deliver them.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s regional diplomacy belongs in that larger discussion. Strengthening relationships in the Americas can improve security while creating opportunities for more resilient economic partnerships. The question is how to turn those opportunities into lasting results.

Factories Need More Than a Flag

A factory built on American soil still depends on its supply chain. Its production can be interrupted if an essential material becomes unavailable, a processing facility shuts down, or a shipping route is disrupted.

Copper, lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements serve different purposes, but all illustrate the relationship between materials and modern industrial production. Building American capacity requires attention to every stage: extraction, processing, components, and finished products.

China’s position is particularly significant in processing. The International Energy Agency’s 2025 assessment identified China as the dominant refiner for 19 of 20 strategic minerals examined, with an average market share of approximately 70%. The agency also documented expanding Chinese export restrictions affecting industrial materials and processing technologies. IEA assessment

That concentration creates a vulnerability. Commercial access today does not guarantee uninterrupted access during a diplomatic or economic confrontation.

The goal should be reliable alternatives. Trade can continue while American companies develop additional suppliers and processing capacity. Greater choice strengthens our ability to make decisions in our own national interest.

Rubio and the Regional Map

During Rubio’s September visit, Peru announced that it would join the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas. The coalition focuses on intelligence sharing and cooperation against transnational criminal organizations. His visit followed stops in Colombia and Ecuador and formed part of Washington’s broader effort to strengthen regional relationships and counter growing Chinese influence. Reuters report

The immediate security purpose matters on its own. Criminal networks cross borders, and governments need dependable partners to exchange information and coordinate lawful responses.

There is also a broader strategic possibility. Regular cooperation builds relationships between officials and institutions. Those relationships can support discussions about investment, transportation, infrastructure, and the security of commercial systems.

This is the sense in which Rubio is trying to redraw the map: strengthening the network of governments willing to work with Washington. The boundaries remain the same; the relationships may change.

Why Peru Matters

Peru connects the security discussion to natural resources. It is a major copper producer, and China remains its largest export market, principally because of copper and other mineral exports. Reuters trade report

Peru is also part of an existing American supply relationship. In the figures reported by Reuters in February 2025, Chile, Canada, and Peru together supplied more than 90% of U.S. refined copper imports. Hemispheric partnerships already help sustain American industry. Reuters copper overview

Security alignment, however, does not automatically redirect commerce. Peru’s participation in the Shield does not itself establish mineral purchase agreements, change infrastructure ownership, or create new refineries.

Its continuing trade with China makes the challenge clear. Washington must offer practical economic opportunities alongside security cooperation. Partners have their own interests, customers, and development needs.

Partnerships Must Deliver

The earlier article emphasized that cooperation becomes durable when ordinary people gain something from it. That principle applies here too.

Regional governments need investment, employment, dependable markets, and infrastructure. American businesses need reliable supplies, predictable contracts, and conditions that justify long-term commitments. Agreements that address both sets of needs have a stronger foundation.

For America, a serious industrial strategy would connect domestic production with trusted external suppliers. It would support processing capacity, recycling, and transportation alongside new factories. The IEA identifies international partnerships linking resource-rich countries, processing capabilities, and industrial consumers as important to diversifying concentrated supply chains. IEA assessment

Such investments have costs and tradeoffs. New facilities take time, communities have legitimate concerns, and alternative supplies may initially be more expensive. Those considerations belong in the calculation alongside the potential cost of a major interruption.

Dependability has economic value. A supplier’s price means less if the required material cannot arrive when production needs it.

A Shared Principle Across Two Regions

The Abraham Accords and the Shield of the Americas have different purposes. The Accords concern diplomatic normalization; the Shield concerns cooperation against transnational crime. Their results should be assessed against those respective goals.

Yet the comparison offers a useful principle: sovereign nations can develop relationships around shared interests and practical benefits.

In the Middle East, my earlier article explored how cooperation could create reasons to preserve peace. In the Americas, stronger security relationships may also create opportunities to build dependable economic connections.

Neither outcome is automatic. Diplomatic announcements begin a process. Investment, institutional cooperation, and tangible benefits determine whether it lasts.

The Work Behind the Vision

America’s industrial future requires attention to the entire chain that makes production possible. Our regional diplomacy and our domestic economic decisions need to work together.

Rubio’s engagement provides an opportunity to strengthen that connection. Its significance will ultimately depend on what follows: effective security cooperation, durable commercial agreements, and investments that expand the choices available to America and its partners.

A better world needs productive nations capable of cooperating from a position of confidence. For America, that means preserving the ability to build, obtaining the resources we need, and developing partnerships that can withstand pressure.

In my previous article, I suggested double-checking the seating chart.

This time, we should also check who supplies the table—and whether we can still build one ourselves.

VISIONING A BETTER WORLD

 “Imagine all the people living life in peace.”
—John Lennon, Imagine

The Greater Promise of the Abraham Accords

In the 1940s, few Americans could have imagined Germany and Japan becoming two of America’s closest allies. Both had fought devastating wars against the United States and its allies. Yet American leaders recognized that permanent punishment would only plant the seeds of another war. Reconstruction, economic development, security partnerships, and gradual reconciliation offered a better future.

That vision worked. Germany became central to the transatlantic alliance, while Japan developed into a peaceful democracy and one of America’s most important economic and strategic partners. This transformation did not require forgetting history. It required giving former enemies practical reasons to build a different future. Japan’s reconstruction ultimately produced a formal American alliance that has endured for generations. U.S. State Department historical record

Therein lies the brilliant promise of the Abraham Accords. They reject the assumption that the Middle East must remain imprisoned by its oldest grievances. Instead of demanding that every disagreement be resolved before cooperation can begin, the Accords allow cooperation itself to become part of the solution.

Diplomatic recognition leads to direct flights. Direct flights encourage tourism and personal relationships. Trade creates jobs and shared investments. Cooperation in water, agriculture, energy, technology, medicine, and defense gives governments and ordinary citizens something valuable to protect. Peace stops being merely a document signed by political leaders and becomes woven into everyday life.

The potential extends far beyond Israel’s present partners. A widening circle of normalized relations could connect Israeli technology and innovation with Arab capital, markets, geography, and energy resources. It could strengthen moderate governments, weaken extremist movements, and give younger generations an alternative to inherited hatred.

None of this requires nations to surrender their identities. Germany did not stop being Germany, nor Japan Japan, when they became American allies. Arab countries need not become less Arab or Muslim to cooperate with Israel, and Israel need not compromise its Jewish identity or security.

This is why the future of Iran is so important. The world properly focuses on the Iranian regime’s use of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other armed groups to spread instability. But Iran also participates in a wider strategic alignment with China and Russia. In a true sense, Iran their proxy. The three governments cooperate where doing so helps them challenge American influence and the Western-led international order. 

The replacement of Iran’s Islamic revolutionary government with one seeking normal relations would therefore represent far more than a regional change. It could weaken the network of proxy warfare surrounding Israel and demonstrate that national prosperity offers more than permanent confrontation. Regime collapse alone, however, would not guarantee this outcome. The real hope must be for a stable government accepted by the Iranian people and prepared to live peacefully with its neighbors.

The rise of the Persian people changes the equation for China and Russia, along with the USA and Israel. Witness this shift in America's Hemisphere. Thanks to the same mastermind. You know who!

No Place at the Table for the IRGC

There can be no place within a peaceful regional order for an apocalyptic theocracy committed to destroying Israel, driving America from the region, and undermining Western civilization. A government cannot demand the privileges of cooperation while financing terrorist proxies, exporting revolution, threatening its neighbors, and seeking another nation’s destruction.

This is not an indictment of the Persian people. Many Iranians want the same peace, freedom, normalcy, and prosperity that the entire region desperately needs. They deserve the opportunity to reclaim their country, determine its future, and restore Iran’s honorable place among the nations.

The door should remain open to an Iran that abandons terrorism, nuclear intimidation, and annihilationist ambitions. But the first requirement for joining a community of peace must be accepting the right of everyone else at the table to exist.

CAN COMMUNISTS SEE THE LIGHT?

If the Abraham Accords can help transform the Middle East from a battlefield of proxies into a community of sovereign nations cooperating through trade, security, and mutual interest, China and Russia will have reason to take notice. (Color me skeptical.)

That points toward the larger message Trump has expressed since entering politics: nations can defend their sovereignty and interests without remaining trapped in endless wars. His administration calls this “America First” and “peace through strength”—a policy that seeks cooperation from a position of national confidence rather than weakness. White House

The Abraham Accords’ greatest promise, therefore, is not merely peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors. It is the possibility of demonstrating to the world that cooperation can produce greater security and prosperity than domination. Germany and Japan prove that yesterday’s enemies do not have to remain tomorrow’s enemies. The hope is that the Middle East will prove it again—and that China and Russia will recognize the possibilities for themselves.

Then Again, There Is Man

It is a magnificent vision. Unfortunately, it depends on human beings.

God told Noah that “the imagination of man’s heart is evil from his youth” (Genesis 8:21). 

In other words, humanity had just received a fresh start—and God was already managing expectations.

So, yes, let us pursue peace, expand the Abraham Accords, open embassies, increase trade, and keep everyone talking. Just do not assume that another treaty will cure pride, envy, greed, or our remarkable ability to turn a seating arrangement into an international incident.

There is another promise: the Messiah.

Until then, keep negotiating—and double-check the seating chart.

LINCOLN LOVES WHAT HE SEES

WASHINGTON DC NEVER LOOKED BETTER OR WAS MORE SAFE

The Trump Administration has launched an unusually large restoration program, but only some projects are fully completed. Others remain under construction or proposed.

Here is the most complete list I can verify for President Trump’s second term, from January 20, 2025 through September 4, 2026.

Completed or substantially completed

1. Lafayette Square rehabilitation

The park’s landscaping, walkways, fountains and related infrastructure were rehabilitated. Its fountains began operating again in June 2026 after being inactive for nearly a decade.

2. Meridian Hill Park lower plaza

The lower plaza, reflecting pool and thirteen-basin cascading fountain reopened on May 14, 2026. Additional testing and minor improvements continued after reopening. National Park Service

3. Arts of War statues

The monumental equestrian sculptures Valor and Sacrifice, located at the eastern entrance to Arlington Memorial Bridge, received bronze conservation, repaired granite bases and new 23.75-karat gold leaf. This portion was completed near the end of July 2026.

4. Columbus Fountain and Columbus Plaza

The fountain, sculpture, plaza and surrounding grounds at Union Station underwent cleaning and rehabilitation between late 2025 and mid-2026.

5. World War II Memorial beautification

Cleaning, landscape rehabilitation and maintenance of its fountains and water systems were undertaken for the America 250 observances.

6. National Mall cleanup and landscape work

Crews cleaned monuments, repaired walkways, restored turf and improved public areas in preparation for the country’s 250th anniversary. This is a collection of smaller projects rather than one construction contract.

Reopened but still requiring work

7. Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool

The pool was drained, repaired, resurfaced, refilled and reopened. Recurring algae and coating problems led to additional cleaning, repairs and temporary closures. It is therefore fair to call the refilling and structural work an accomplishment, but not yet a completely finished success.

8. Meridian Hill Park upper grounds

The lower plaza reopened, but landscaping and rehabilitation elsewhere in the park have continued.

Under construction or nearing completion

9. Arts of Peace statues

Music and Harvest and Aspiration and Literature are receiving the same conservation and regilding treatment as the Arts of War. Completion was scheduled for late September 2026.

10. White House ballroom

A major new state ballroom is under construction. It is intended to provide a permanent venue for large state dinners and official events, replacing the frequent use of temporary outdoor structures. It is not yet finished.

11. White House historic columns and porticoes

Conservation and cleaning work has been undertaken on the exterior columns and stonework, including work around the North Portico.

12. White House South Lawn helipad

The administration announced replacement or reconstruction of the existing landing area with a more durable granite installation. This should be described as an active construction project, not a completed one.

13. Lincoln Memorial undercroft museum

The large museum and visitor-space project beneath the Lincoln Memorial is moving toward completion. It began before Trump returned to office, so the administration can claim completion or stewardship if it opens during this term—but not sole credit for originating it.

Historic fountains being returned to service

The National Park Service identified nine long-inoperable fountains for rehabilitation:

14. Columbus Plaza Fountain

15. Freedom Plaza Fountain

16. John Marshall Park Fountain

17. John Paul Jones Memorial Fountain

18. Lafayette Square fountains

19. Meridian Hill Park fountains

20. Philip Sheridan Memorial Fountain

21. Rawlins Park Fountain

22. Simón Bolívar Memorial Fountain

Lafayette Square and Meridian Hill have documented reopenings. The others belong to the active restoration program, but public records do not consistently establish that every one is completely operational yet.

Operational fountains receiving upgrades

Nine additional sites were selected for maintenance, mechanical improvements or conservation:

23. Dupont Circle Fountain

24. Franklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial water features

25. George Mason Memorial Fountain

26. Japanese American Memorial water feature

27. Korean War Veterans Memorial Pool of Remembrance

28. National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial fountains

29. Taras Shevchenko Memorial fountain

30. United States Navy Memorial fountains

31. World War II Memorial fountains

The complete official fountain program is documented by the National Park Service.

Approved, proposed or preparatory—not yet construction successes

32. United States Triumphal Arch

The proposed 250-foot arch would stand at Memorial Circle between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Preliminary excavation has been announced, but the project still faces regulatory and legal questions. It should be called a proposed project, not a completed achievement.

33. National Garden of American Heroes

Congress provided $40 million toward the planned sculpture garden, but it is not yet a completed physical attraction.

34. East Potomac Golf Links redevelopment

Plans have been advanced for a substantial redevelopment, but it remains a proposal rather than a finished project.

35. Presidential Capital Stewardship Program

The Administration has proposed a very large, long-term federal investment for Washington restoration and beautification. 

DC is looking great. President Trump is undertaking the most concentrated presidential campaign to restore and reshape Washington since the Kennedy–Johnson era. Whether he ultimately surpasses Lyndon and Lady Bird Johnson will depend on how many of his major projects are completed.

SAFER TOO! 

Washington, D.C., is experiencing its lowest overall per-capita crime level since 1962.

All his critics can do is complain. 

Note: The Jefferson Memorial roof and portico restoration and the Arlington Memorial Bridge rehabilitation were substantially associated with Trump’s first term, not his current term. 

ISRAEL'S QUIET COMEBACK

How Trump and Netanyahu Rewrote the Map

In a period when antisemitism has been loud on college campuses, in the streets, throughout the media, and at the United Nations, the state-level map did not move the way the noise suggested. If foreign policy were merely a weather vane for protests, 2025 and 2026 should have brought Israel even greater isolation. Instead, governments restored ambassadors, pledged or opened embassies in Jerusalem, signed security and trade agreements, and joined diplomatic frameworks modeled on the Abraham Accords.

That gap between public hostility and government behavior is where strategy shows.

That is why this is a quiet comeback. A diplomatic realignment of this size should be a major international story. But much of the mainstream media is reluctant to report anything that reflects well on Israel, while a growing part of the Democratic Party has become openly hostile to Zionism. The individual events may receive scattered coverage, but the unmistakable pattern is ignored. Israel’s comeback is quiet not because it is small, but because acknowledging it would mean admitting that Trump’s foreign policy—and Netanyahu’s refusal to bend—are working.

The shift was not universal. Europe remained divided. Brazil and Mexico remained cold at the top. Public opinion toward Israel deteriorated across much of the West. Grant all of that. Then look at what actually changed among governments.

The List Tells the Story

Political, diplomatic, and strategic shifts during 2025–26

Argentina — Became Israel’s closest Latin American ally; launched the Isaac Accords; designated an arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization; pledged to move its embassy to Jerusalem.

Colombia — Restored the relationship damaged under Gustavo Petro; announced the reopening of its embassy in Jerusalem; recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Bolivia — Restored diplomatic relations severed in 2023 and began reversing the previous government’s alignment against Israel.

Peru — Began a security-centered reset under Keiko Fujimori; expanded cooperation with Israel; severed diplomatic relations with Iran.

Chile — Returned an ambassador to Israel after the election of José Antonio Kast.

Honduras — Restored ambassadorial representation and expanded bilateral cooperation.

Venezuela — Restored consular relations with Israel after seventeen years.

Ecuador — Expanded security and cybersecurity cooperation and opened an innovation office in Jerusalem.

Costa Rica — Signed a free-trade agreement with Israel.

Dominican Republic — Adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism.

Slovenia — Reversed sanctions and restrictions imposed by its previous government and announced plans to move its embassy to Jerusalem.

Kazakhstan — Joined the Abraham Accords in November 2025, giving new life to one of Trump’s signature foreign-policy achievements.

Somaliland — Established full diplomatic relations with Israel following Israel’s historic recognition in December 2025.

Fiji — Opened an embassy in Jerusalem in September 2025.

Palau, Nauru, and Papua New Guinea — Continued moving toward stronger diplomatic identification with Israel and Jerusalem.

Greece — Signed a roughly $3.5 billion agreement for an Israeli-built multilayered air-defense system.

Romania — Purchased approximately $2.3 billion in Israeli SPYDER air-defense systems.

Germany, Finland, Slovakia, Czechia, India, Cyprus, and Abraham Accords states — Bought or expanded their purchases of Israeli defense systems.

Read individually, these developments can be dismissed as unrelated events. Read together, they reveal something much larger: Israel’s diplomatic and strategic map is being redrawn.

Latin America Was the Proof

The greatest movement occurred in Latin America, a region where socialist governments, Iranian influence, and anti-Israel politics had been gaining ground. That direction changed.

Argentina’s Javier Milei supplied a political and moral language that other leaders could follow. He spoke openly about Western civilization, liberty, terrorism, Israel, and the danger posed by Iran. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar recognized the opportunity, declared 2026 the “Year of Latin America,” and worked the region aggressively.

Trump supplied the larger force behind the movement.

He did more than offer diplomatic incentives after these elections. He helped create the political movement producing them. His defense of national sovereignty, capitalism, secure borders, and Western civilization—and his warnings about socialism, illegal immigration, Iran, and failed globalism—resonated far beyond the United States. Voters elsewhere were confronting many of the same problems and drawing many of the same conclusions.

Trump changed the political conversation, and Israel benefited from the governments that conversation helped bring to power.

Alignment with Israel once again became a way for foreign governments to demonstrate alignment with the United States. Supporting Israel, confronting Iran, controlling national borders, rejecting socialism, and cooperating with Washington became parts of the same political realignment.

Trump made that alignment valuable.

Netanyahu Refused to Let Europe Decide Israel’s Future

Netanyahu deserves equal credit for understanding that Israel’s legitimacy would not be decided by hostile demonstrations, editorial boards, European bureaucrats, or condemnations at the United Nations.

He looked elsewhere.

Israel treated Latin America, Central Asia, the Pacific, the Gulf, Africa, and Eastern Europe as markets, partners, security allies, and voting blocs. Netanyahu and Sa’ar did not wait for cultural approval before pursuing national interests. They worked with governments willing to work with Israel.

Israel recognized Somaliland when the safe diplomatic choice was to wait. It continued building relationships with small Pacific nations because their votes at the United Nations count. It sold air-defense technology to European governments whose politicians sometimes denounced Israel publicly while relying upon Israeli systems privately.

Netanyahu understood that the world is larger than Brussels, London, Paris, the editorial pages of American newspapers, and the Democratic Party.

Strength Recognizes Strength

Israeli defense exports reached approximately $19.2 billion in 2025. Greece signed its roughly $3.5 billion air-defense agreement. Romania purchased SPYDER systems worth about $2.3 billion. Germany, Finland, Slovakia, Czechia, India, Cyprus, and Gulf states continued buying Israeli technology.

These purchases do not depend upon affection for Netanyahu or agreement with every Israeli policy. They reveal something more important: when national survival and public safety are at stake, governments distinguish between political rhetoric and strategic reality.

They know Israeli technology works. They know Israeli intelligence matters. They know Israel has confronted many of the threats now moving toward them. And they know that an alliance connecting Israeli innovation with American power is more valuable than the approval of protesters.

Defense followed reality.

The Economic Comeback Will Follow

These alliances will produce more than diplomatic support. They will bring enormous economic benefits to Israel. Defense agreements create relationships that extend beyond the original purchase into manufacturing, maintenance, training, cybersecurity, research, and future contracts.

The benefits will spread throughout the Israeli economy:

• Exports — Greater demand for Israeli defense systems, cybersecurity, water technology, agriculture, medicine, and artificial intelligence.
• Manufacturing — Expanded production, new facilities, larger supply chains, and more skilled employment.
• Investment — Joint ventures and foreign capital flowing into Israeli companies and infrastructure.
• Tourism — More business travel, religious tourism, diplomatic visits, and direct transportation links.
• Trade — New markets opening as the Abraham and Isaac Accords expand.
• Construction — Greater demand for housing, commercial development, roads, utilities, schools, and public services.
• Aliyah — Jews moving to Israel will purchase homes, open businesses, fill jobs, raise families, and contribute to the country’s long-term growth.
• Regional renewal — Communities in Judea and Samaria, southern Israel, and eventually northern Israel will grow as security is restored.

This is already beginning, but it could accelerate dramatically as the Abraham Accords expand and Gaza is rebuilt without Hamas. A peaceful and reconstructed Gaza could open new regional opportunities in transportation, trade, construction, energy, and investment instead of remaining a base for terrorism and perpetual war.

The same opportunity exists in northern Israel. Once Hezbollah is defeated and can no longer threaten Israeli communities, displaced residents can return, rebuild their homes and businesses, and restore economic life along the border. Israelis who left the country during the violence may also come home as security and opportunity return.

Israel’s diplomatic comeback can therefore become an economic and demographic comeback. New allies create new markets. New security encourages new construction. Aliyah and returning Israelis strengthen the workforce and enlarge communities. The diplomatic map is being redrawn first, but the economic map will follow.

The Trump-Netanyahu Effect

Trump and Netanyahu share an understanding that much of the Western political establishment rejects: nations are not protected by international approval. They are protected by strength, borders, military capability, economic vitality, dependable alliances, and leaders willing to defend their own people.

Trump restored American strength as an organizing force. Netanyahu ensured that Israel remained strong enough to be an indispensable partner.

Together, they created a clear choice. Governments could align themselves with America, Israel, capitalism, national sovereignty, and opposition to Iran—or continue down the road of socialism, uncontrolled migration, globalist weakness, and accommodation of regimes that openly threaten the West.

A growing number chose the first road.

They Hate Us Cause They Ain't Us

Antisemitism did not disappear. In much of the West, it became worse. Israel did not suddenly win universal acceptance. But while its enemies were winning demonstrations, Israel was winning agreements. While protesters occupied campuses, governments exchanged ambassadors. While international institutions issued condemnations, countries purchased Israeli defenses, opened offices in Jerusalem, restored relations, and joined new diplomatic frameworks.

That is the story much of the mainstream media missed—or preferred not to tell.

Israel’s comeback is not complete, but it is real. Trump helped create the worldwide political movement that made it possible. Netanyahu possessed the strength and vision to take advantage of it.

The road did not disappear. It moved.

Trump pointed toward it. Netanyahu took it.