Trumping China

With all the explosive rhetoric flying around about trade wars, as a result of remarks by the President-elect, one might wonder if Donald Trump wants to damage China.  Is Trump's objective to reduce imports from China?  Does Trump want a trade war?  The answer to these questions is NO!  Here's the bottom line ... Trump demands greater parity - greater fairness!  And, he is using his life long experience as a negotiator to achieve an end that is desirable for both the USA AND China!

Here's some facts to make the point ...

China is second to the USA as the largest economy in the world!  China's GDP is nearly 8x larger than Canada and 10x larger than Mexico.  And yet, China imports less than 1/2 what these two trading partners import from the USA.  The story is similar with other nations.  Many of our other trading partners have a much more balanced trade relationship than China.  Not that we don't have a right to want better deals with any of them!

Trump doesn't want to import less from China, he wants China to import more from the USA. Trump also expects China to be more fair about how it treats USA companies trying to do business in China. In addition, Trump wants better protection of USA intellectual property (patents, trademarks, etc.) which are being stolen and used to compete against their rightful owners in world markets. Fair and ethical practises includes reducing the extent to which China exploits workers and the environment in order to gain a competitive advantage over America and other Western countries.

Is Trump risking a trade war? YES. But all negotiations involve risk. One must be willing to risk in order to win.  Trump is setting up negotiations. and he knows how important it is to be fearless in negotiations.  The average American does not have a clue.

It's not an accident that Trump is saying things intended to scare Chinese leaders.  But we shouldn't let Trump's tactics scare us.  Understand that the media loves fear because it gets ratings! So the media loves to fan the flames of fear.  And, Trump loves it when they do, because it plays right into his negotiating style!

Trump is able to negotiate a better deal for the USA because Trump knows he is negotiating from strength. The USA is China's number one market for exports - we make up nearly 16% of all their exports.  And, whereas the health and stability of the Chinese economy and Communist political party is very dependent on exports to the USA, Chinese exports account for less than 1% of the USA GDP. In other words, while neither the USA or China want a trade war, the Chinese have more to lose!

(Click on image to expand)

It is also important to understand that where one starts in negotiations is not typically where one ends up.  Trump is starting out with reasonable demands and the USA stands to benefit substantially from any progress Trump makes in negotiations.

In the final analysis, the problem is not that the USA imports nearly $400 billion in goods from China.  The problem is that China imports only about $100 billion from the USA.  The Chinese don't have to lose - they just have to expand their economy and increase USA imports. If played right, Trump can succeed at the ultimate goal in negotiations for two parties that want to have a long term relationship - a WIN WIN!

The Middle East Dodged A Bullet

I am happy to see that the first big "IF" which I have blogged about has been avoided!  Alarm Bells have stopped ringing over what could have happened at the Paris conference yesterday.  Thanks to pressure from Israel, it's supporters, and the momentum of President-Elect Trump, Israel dodged a bullet.  

If not for such pressure, anti-Israel and anti-Peace forces, including most Arab nations, would have gotten their way.  And then the final communique out of the conference surely would have read very differently.  Furthermore, chances of that communique working it's way into a rushed United States resolution are now all but nill.

Apparently in deference to the Trump team, the UK delegation did not include any senior-level officials.  Britain sent Michael Howells, head of the Mideast desk in the foreign office, and two diplomats in its embassy in Paris.  Russia, as well, was “only” represented by its ambassador to France, and not by its foreign minister. Even new UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres didn’t attend the conference.

Diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said intensive efforts by Israel over the last few days were successful in softening the language of the statement, which – for instance – did not include the language of Resolution 2334 in referring to east Jerusalem as “occupied territory.” They also noted that there would be no follow-up in the Security Council, and attributed this largely to Israel’s furious reaction to the US failure to veto that resolution. 

The final communique also shied away from explicitly criticizing plans by Trump to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, although diplomats said the wording was meant to send a “subliminal” message.

In a nod to Israel, the final declaration of Sunday’s conference included criticism of incitement and “terror,” a reference to Palestinian attacks. And some of the pro-Palestinian language in an earlier draft was removed after diplomats huddled in Paris.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon dismissed Sunday’s conference, tweeting that it was “flat as a failed soufflé.” And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the conference marked the “last flutters of yesterday’s world.”  “Tomorrow will look different and tomorrow is very close,” he said.

Thankfully, it will also be a world in which French President François Hollande, who organized the conference, will not be leading!  His days are numbered.

So does it mean the peace process must fail if the peace conference didn't achieve the result which Palestinian leadership sought?  Of course not! Ultimately, the Paris Conference proclaimed what Netanyahu and others who want peace have been saying all along. Peace requires direct negotiations -- Not a United Nations mandate! 

Hopefully, Abbas has come to the end of the long road he has taken since breaking off direct negotiations in 2014 and trying to force Israel to accept terms he wanted by bringing International pressure on Israel.

There can be no peace unless the parties want peace.  Something that is so obvious and yet missing when it comes to the true intentions of Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and others who are on the ground and/or dictating Palestinians actions. Abbas, or his successor, must come to the table in good faith!

“The Palestinians and a number of Arab states have not expressed a will for peace,” said Serge Klarsfeld, a well-known French Nazi hunter. “If it existed and if the Arab world recognized the existence of Israel, we would find the means to solve all the problems very quickly.”

The next stress test for the Middle East will come after Trump is in office.  Will he move the US Embassy to Jerusalem?   We shall see if he keeps his campaign promise.  IF so, the alarm bells, and possibly air raid sirens, will sound again.  But there is a righteous ring to such an announcement.  Our sovereign nation, the USA, has EVERY right to locate our embassy in Jerusalem, the eternal capital of Israel, another sovereign nation.  And any country that opposes that never truly wanted peace in the first place and probably never will. 

Until then, the sad and tragic news of more innocent civilians being killed by terrorist and jihadist will continue on a weekly and near daily basis. How long can Israeli, and Jews in Europe who face terrible hate, continue to live this way?  For as long as they need to!

[Facts, some wording, and qoutes in this post have come from the Jerusalem Post and World News.]
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Here is egg on the faces of Hollande, Obama/Kerry, and especially Abbas! 

Check out what British Prime Minister Therasa May has to say about the Obama Administration's handling of the Peace Process and UN Resolution 2335's and treatment of Israel.  
Article in the Guardian
Washington Post 
The Syndey Morning Herald
Theresa May on Israel "a thriving democracy, a beacon of tolerance, an engine of enterprise"

Countdown To Purim

Fear not, Purim is around the corner. Though Haman's evil plan is about to unfold, the one G-d draws close to keep the covenant and defend Israel!

I have been blogging on this concern for months. It is finally time for things to be, or not to be. The timing is no coincidence.

Today, Sunday, is the day.  The first "IF" in a series that leads to war in the Middle East will be put on the table today.  When we start our day on Monday in America, the news won't be so much about Russian hacking and Trump being illegitimate  . . .  It will be about a crisis brewing for Israel.

The betrayal of Israel was delibrately timed for after the US Presidential election so it would not hurt Hillary's chances and yet still give time for Obama and Kerry to allow critical UN Resolutions to pass.  Even the timing of the announcement from the Paris conference falling on Martin Luther King Day, is part of the deception.  And we can expect Hamas to draw IDF fire to locations in Gaza where children are by conducting Gaza border raids so that Hamas can release images of dead children to also stir anger against Israel during this week!

The next "IF" will occur by mid week. That is when world attention will shift to the United Nations which will announce plans to convene a special meeting to consider the statement out of the Paris conference before Obama leaves office.  That will set the stage for the next "IF" -- a United Nations resolution, which for all intents and purposes, unilaterally establishes the state of Palestine which includes Jerusalem.  Haman has deceived the king.

BUT THESE "IFS" CAN BE TURNED BACK WITH ENOUGH PRESSURE.  AND THAT PRESSURE IS WORKING ON KEY PARTICIPANTS IN FRANCE. 

Otherwise, just in time for Purim ... The trumpet will sound for America's new leader. That is when the third "IF" will happen. After Trump is sworn in - Trump will receive and sign a bill from both Houses to move our embassy in Israel to the eternal capital of Jerusalem. This bill will also reaffirm Israel's right to defend itself.  In addition, this bill will hang the family of Haman in the United Nations by defunding it.

If these three big "IFs" come to be  . . . .  The Shofar will sound and disrupt our enemies!  (Num. 10:9 “And when you go to war in your land against the adversary who attacks you, then you shall sound an alarm with the SHOFARS, that you may be remembered before the Lord your God, and be saved from your enemies.”) The tables will turn on shabbat March 11th when the swords of the mighty decendents of Mordecia rise up against Israel's enemies.

Until then I anticipate Israel will take certain limited strikes to soften opponents military readiness inside Gaza, Lebenon, and Syria, starting two days ago in Syria.

Russia will profit from the war through the sale of weapons,  but I do not believe that Putin will enter the war thanks in large part to Trump's "Russian Reset"

One love. One state. Israel!

Just Stop It

Wrote lyrics for a song. Now I need to figure out a melody.

Title: Just Stop it

Black, white, they both know

The other don't know

Understanding can't grow

Blue, red, watch the show

Folks voting down the row

Keeping everyone in tow

You, you  ... you

You, you  ... you

That's what we

do, do ... do

Do do ... do

Just stop it, stop it.

East, west, says they're the best

The other can't pass the test

All we got is unrest

Building bombs to kill the rest

Leaving infants with no nest

Is that anyway to be blessed

You, you  ... you

You, you  ... you

That's what we

do, do ... do

Do do ... do

Just stop it, stop it.

Listen, listen, pull your fist in

Violence comes around

When everyone stands their ground

Who ever can hear the sound

Please God, not another round

Mercy in empathy must be found

You, you  ... you

You, you  ... you

That's what we

do, do ... do

Do do ... do

Just stop it, stop it.

War On The Table

THE PROSPECTS FOR WAR OR PEACE WILL BE ON THE TABLE IN LESS THAN ONE WEEK.

A Congressional Bill to move the US Embassy to the "eternal capital of Israel" is IN-PROGRESS, and will happen as Trump promised.  If ever there was something meant to be it is for Jerusalem to be the eternal capital of the one and only Jewish State, Israel!

If moving our Embassy to Jerusalem means there will not be peace with the Palestinians, then so be it if we must settle this with a war.  Who ever will lift a weapon against Israel for calling Jerusalem its Capital, never wanted peace in the first place.

There are dozens of Muslim countries. Countries whose existence and boundaries were created, and have far less historical basis for existence than Israel. (One exception is Egypt, whose history is as rich as Israel.) These countries have brutal Sharia Laws, that treat women and Christians and Jews harshly. Unlike Israel, where Muslims, Christians, and women live with respect and freely.  In Gaza, a place where all Jews left and is controlled by Hamas, a group whose Charter calls for the destruction of Israel, they celebrate and reward murder. The world can make room for One State of Israel.

To me Hamas is no better than Hitler's Nazi party.  And like Hitler, anyone who supports it, is Israel's sworn deadly enemy and should be dealt with as such!

As for Iran, it comes down to THREE FACTS and ONE QUESTION:
THREE FACTS:
1. Their controlling clerics have pledged to destroy Israel
2. They promote and fund terrorism around the world
3. In the so called Iran deal, the United States had previously held the posture that Iran should not be allowed to enrich uranium. But we made a shift during the negotiations of the nuclear accord, which allows the Islamic Republic to enrich up to 3.67% of uranium for 15 years and only for "PEACEFUL PURPOSES." That is just enough to make a bomb.  And they keep improving and building missiles to deliver it.

ONE QUESTION:
1. Do we believe Iran is up to "PEACEFUL PURPOSES?"

The US Embassy move is in-progress and will pass.  BUT THAT WILL BE AFTER TRUMP BECOMES PRESIDENT AND I SAID WAR WOULD BE ON THE TABLE IN LESS THAN ONE WEEK. HERE IS WHY ...

On Jan. 15th, 3 days from today, 70 plus Nations will meet in France.  If they agree to declare the State of Palestine, with boundaries that include the old Temple and Ancient Biblical Jerusalem, that will set in motion a chain reaction that may bring a vote up in the United Nations with wording from the Paris conference, just in time before Barack Obama and Kerry leave office.  WHAT THEY DO IF SUCH A UNITED NATIONS RESOLUTION IS PUT ON THE TABLE WILL DETERMINE THE PROSPECTS OF WAR OR PEACE.

IF THAT MOTION DOES COME TO A VOTE IN THE UN BEFORE OBAMA IS OUT, IT WILL BE BY OBAMA'S DESIGN IN BOTH MEANING AND TIMING. THEREFORE, IT WILL ALSO SEAL OBAMA AS THE MAN WHOSE DEEDS BETRAYED ISRAEL.  WILL OBAMA TURN OUT TO BE AS HAMAN?  THAT QUESTION WILL BE ANSWERED VERY SOON ... JUST IN TIME FOR PURIM!

IF OBAMA DEVIOUSLY PLANNED THE TIMING OF HIS CONSPIRACY WITH ARAB COUNTRIES AND THE FRENCH CONFERENCE PLANNERS AND THOSE IN THE U.N. WHO BROUGHT US RESOLUTION 2334:
After that conference the initial reaction to the French and UN vote will be jubilation!  It will be Trump and the Bill moving through Congress to move the Embassy that will be the catalyst for turning that celebratory emotion into an angry and violent uprising. Thus, Obama will blame Trump. Obama is devilishly clever.  But if these events actually do unfold, anyone should be able to tell who the architect of this future confrontation truly was.

Days away from a very big IF!!

Previous Post - IF>THEN: You Do The Math On The Middle East

Quick Fix For High Drug Price In America

QUICK EXPLANATION AND SOLUTION FOR HIGH DRUG PRICES.

What good is it to have the buying power that Medicare has if we don't use it?  See facts below from WSJ article.

"Medicare, the largest single U.S. payer for prescription drugs, is by law unable to negotiate pricing . . . The arrangement means Medicare is essentially forfeiting its buying power, leaving bargaining to doctors’ offices that have little negotiating heft, said Sean Sullivan, dean of the School of Pharmacy at the University of Washington.

Asked to comment on the higher prices Medicare pays compared with foreign countries, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said: “The payment rate for Medicare Part B drugs is specified in statute.”

Furthermore, Americans fund much of the global drug industry’s earnings, and its efforts to find new medicines. “The U.S. is responsible for the majority of profits for most large pharmaceutical companies,” said Richard Evans, a health-care analyst at SSR LLC and a former pricing official at drug maker Roche Holding AG .

Laws in USA which unreasonably protect drug company patents and make it ridiculously expensive, difficult, and lengthy to get new treatments approved, benefit large Pharma. Meanwhile, other countries benefit from Americas amazing drug research while Americans foot the bill.

Why are Americans getting such a bad deal? Because Congress is bought and paid for by Pharma!!!  Republicans are as or more guilty as Democrats on this for selling influence.  As Trump said, essentially, Americans are being screwed by drug lobbyists.

Their biggest recipient? Clinton. She collected $336,416 in donations, over a third of the total contributions during the 2016 presidential campaign. The next biggest recipient was Republican candidate Jeb Bush, who collected less than half the amount of Clinton. Trump received the least in donations: $1,010, enough to buy one Daraprim pill.

Obamacare was virtually written and paid for by Pharma lobbyist. The health care law is expected to boost Big Pharma's profits, possibly from $10 billion to $35 billion over the next decade.

Ultimately, Obama turned on Pharma in latter years. Just as he did with insurers. He played them. That's why insurers are dropping like flies. He was smart and wiley and Pharma can now see the writing on the wall if we get to a single payer system.  I am all for negotiating the best deal, but I oppose socialized medicine.  With Medicare we have the power of a monopoly but we dint use it to America's advantage, as described above, again because the Pharma Lobby owns congress.

Wait till Trump starts Tweeting and calling out Pharma, like he has the auto industry. Trump hates it when Americans are getting screwed while other countries benefit from our stupid politicians on the take.

Here is a simple idea that would not have a chance before Trump, but may going forward. Pass a law that drug companies can not charge more for a drug in the USA than they sell it for in other countries.

Couple this with reducing regulations and streamlining the process for approving new treatments to lower cost and speed up bringing new medicines and devices to market.

Bam!!  Watch how fast drug prices go down in the USA, AND how they go up internationally. Other countries have to start paying their fair share!!

Here is a link to a previous post - How Not To Solve Healthcare

How Not To Solve Healthcare

It is disengenuous for Obama to say that he welcomed Republican's help with the creation of Obamacare. It sounds good but the two parties were so FAR apart in their philosophy about how to approach Healthcare that it was either the President's way or the highway. And that's the way it turned out -- with not one Republican vote.

OF course Democrats call that obstructionism. And you can say it was!  But there was just as much unwillingness on the part of the Democrats to accept the Republicans ideas on HealthCare.  Both parties stood their ground and America became divided.  Here's is a NY Times article that delves into this.

It is not that Republicans are evil and uncaring people. And lets face it, they have the same healthcare problems - they get sick, and have pre-existing conditions, and struggle with the costs just the same as Democrats!  It is just that Republicsns have philosophical differences about how to solve problems. And Republican's knew Obamacare was ultimately a Trojan Horse version of Hillary care.  And here is why ...

Republicans foresaw what the President refused to admit - and actually lied about to sell his plan! Republicans, and Libertarians, anticipated the present and looming financial failures of Obamacare in the long run and how it would discourage competition and ultimately cost considerably more to taxpayers. Republicans were right about real problems, loss of carriers, and escalating premuims.

The President knew what was coming down the pike as well.  Many believe Obama expected competition, under the ACA as designed, to fail and drop coverage. Just as he knew ultimately many would not get to keep their original plan and the premiums would skyrocket. And, that insurers would drop out, as they are, because of rising costs and limits on government  reimbursement. This begs the question of why - what good come from designing a failure?  Here's the answer ...

In the end, the President gambled that there would be a Democrat in the White House. None other than the Queen of Socialized medicine - Hillary R Clinton!  SO, when the ACA failed BY DESIGN, the goverrment could "save the day" by moving to a "single-payer system," a Monopoly, and THEN the government could mandate prices through legislation. In essence a socialist system versus a capitalist system!!  Hello Bernie Sanders.  Obama's plan B.  And maybe his best salesman!  But clearly a Socialist!

I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to give up on our Founding Fathers vision for America's economic system.  But if you are maybe you should move to France, just saying.  (Pardon my snarky humor.)

It is also misleading to ONLY point to the people that now have coverage who could not get it before, and OTHER benefits of the ACA, as the reason that Obamacare is working.  Of course there are some Pros. But the system still has to be sustainable. So to only point to the positive misses the full picture.  Nor do they mean the overall program is optimal.  Nor should Republicans be relieved of an obligation to figure out how Americans can obtain coverage who might otherwise have been shut out. There are other Pros to the ACA and Republicans will have to cope with those challenges.

Obamacare started with many lies, and today as predicted it is failing under its own weight. Obama knows it, which is why he welcomes the Republicans to propose changes.  There will be major fixes needed for it to survive.  So, it is tempting for Republicans to opt to let it come apart on its own.  Which would be an embarrasment to the President if his legacy failed by design, however, if Democrats want to play it that way, that's an option.

But that's not the way to fix our problems! It is just another way to not fix Healthcare

I have never seen a departing President lead an effort to undermine the incoming President. America is a freaking mess! And until we start working together we are not going to solve Healthcare or our other major issues.

Here is a follow-up article on a Quick Fix to Healthcare.