Friday, September 30, 2016

Why I Support Johnson and Weld

Let's see, me and my parent’s generation is leaving future generations with a 20 trillion dollar debt and enormously underfunded public and private pensions. So what do we have to show for it?

The slowest expansion on record since 1949.

According to the McKinsey Global Institute, 81 percent of the United States population is in an income bracket with flat or declining income over the last decade. 

Capital investment by businesses has actually become a drag on growth, falling 2.1% in the final quarter of 2015 and 4.5% in the first quarter of 2016. 

A nation of millennials who are so burdened by college debt that they can't afford to purchase homes and have put off off household formation.

INFRASTRUCTURE IS AMERICA’S BACKBONE

It’s your local water main and the Hoover Dam, the power lines connected to your house and the electrical grid spanning the U.S., and the street in front of your home and the national highway system. Yet, according to the American society of civil engineers, who do a report card on US infrastructure every 4 years in 2013 they gave America a grade of D+ plus and said that we have 3.6 trillion dollars worth of needed infrastructure improvements in America. 

From the crumbling bridges to the overflowing sewage drains and corroading water lines that are poisons us, to the rusting railroad tracks in the Northeast Corridor, decaying infrastructure is all around us, and the consequences are so familiar that we barely notice them—like urban traffic congestion, slow-moving trains, and flights that are often disrupted, thanks to an outdated air-traffic-control system. The costs are significant, once you reckon wasted time, lost productivity, poor public-health outcomes, and increased carbon emissions. 

TRUMP IS RIGHT ... HERE IS WHY WE NEED TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN:

National Center for Academic Statistics in the educational rankings of developed countries, the USA ranked 17th in reading, 19th in science, and 26th in math skills.

According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report for the United States ranked 13th.

The Fraser Institute—a free market think tank—released its annual Economic Freedom of the World report, which showed Hong Kong topping the list of the world's most free economies, with Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland and Canada rounding out the top five. However, America mired in the 16th spot for the second consecutive year, the institute noted.

The United States has less than 5 percent of the world’s population, yet we have almost 25 percent of the world’s total prison population. The numbers today are much higher than they were 30, 40 years ago despite the fact that crime is at historic lows. Our victimization rate is about the same as Europe but our incarceration rate is nearly 3 1/2×.

Taxes should be for running operations of the government. Not for realigning the economy or wealth. The government should strive to run as efficently as possible and to leave as much capital as it can in the free markets To create jobs and more wealth. Instead we have tax policy that pushes US multinational companies to do inversions in order to achieve more competitive tax rates and to keep 2 trillion of their cash overseas.  There is a growing attitude that we punish success and reward failure, which will drag down America. 

Why are we in the shape we're in?

Neither a marriage, an organization, or a team would survive if the individuals involved functioned the way our government and political system do today.  Party over people.  We are tearing ourselves down, rather than building America up.

Instead of looking for ideas to support from the other party, we look to either claim them for ourselves or to find only the faults.  We fail to give credit where credit is due, or hold ourselves accountable for our flaws and mistakes.  Trump is highly criticized, and yet, he started the discussion on how we need to do a better job of negotiating with NATO, and our trade deals. And now, with Gary Johnson, instead of focusing on his constructive ideas the media is exploiting is weakness on names.
We need Democratic ideas, we need Republican ideas, we need Green Party ideas, we need Libertarian ideas.  What we need most is an approach to government that:
  1. fosters cooperation and accountability 
  2. puts a higher emphasis on the vision of our Founding Fathers and the concepts in which our nation was founded.
  3. Understand that government is failing by many measures and be willing to innovate and try new approaches.
  4. we need to stop seeing leaving wealth in the hands of wealth creators as a bad thing, when that is better place for it to be.  
  5. We need to elevate nonprofits and religious philanthropy. 
  6. We have a mistaken forgone conclusion that regulation always makes things better. You couldn't build Beacon or Fishkill or Kingwood Park in Poughkeepsie today.
  7. When America builds the world wins.  When we rebuild our infrastructure the world's less developed nations that rely on their mining and natural resources benefit.  The Internet may have started in the USA, but the world benefits.  Our leadership in drug research, space exploration, and nanotechnology, DNA, and other areas has benefited the world.  We have a great opportunity to lead in exploring and protecting the worlds oceans!  

One of the greatest strengths of America is the vision that our Founding Fathers had and left us with when America and its Constitution were created.  And, one of the greatest strengths of America is that our founding fathers knew the importance of States power.  The concept of innovation, competitiveness, that is derived from having 50 states who both compete for and share resources – is a brilliant facet in the formation of our nation.  The Federal Government undermines that system and the benefits of that dynamic when we take powers away and centralize decisions and control.  Educational processes, health care options, and more, can all develop better by giving greater control to the states.

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Our two party monopoly and partisan politics is damaging America precisely in the ways and for the reasons our Founding Father George Washington warned us. And I believe Johnson and Weld are the best present hope to correct this trend.  You in?

Excerpt from George Washington Farewell letter: (penned by Alexander Hamilton)
"Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.

This spirit, unfortunately, is inseparable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human mind. It exists under different shapes in all governments, more or less stifled, controlled, or repressed; but, in those of the popular form, it is seen in its greatest rankness, and is truly their worst enemy.

The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries which result gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of public liberty.

Without looking forward to an extremity of this kind (which nevertheless ought not to be entirely out of sight), the common and continual mischiefs of the spirit of party are sufficient to make it the interest and duty of a wise people to discourage and restrain it.

It serves always to distract the public councils and enfeeble the public administration. It agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms, kindles the animosity of one part against another, foments occasionally riot and insurrection. It opens the door to foreign influence and corruption, which finds a facilitated access to the government itself through the channels of party passions. Thus the policy and the will of one country are subjected to the policy and will of another.



There is an opinion that parties in free countries are useful checks upon the administration of the government and serve to keep alive the spirit of liberty. This within certain limits is probably true; and in governments of a monarchical cast, patriotism may look with indulgence, if not with favor, upon the spirit of party. But in those of the popular character, in governments purely elective, it is a spirit not to be encouraged. From their natural tendency, it is certain there will always be enough of that spirit for every salutary purpose. And there being constant danger of excess, the effort ought to be by force of public opinion, to mitigate and assuage it. A fire not to be quenched, it demands a uniform vigilance to prevent its bursting into a flame, lest, instead of warming, it should consume."

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Federal Leadership and Congress Have Failed Us

Profits have fallen for five straight quarters, with the Q4 (so far) trough now showing a contraction of 11.2% year-over-year. Second quarter 2016 GDP was revised slightly lower, from about 1.21% to just 1.09%, as real GDP has averaged now only 0.93% over the past three quarters, and approximately 1.7% on average over the past seven quarters. 

Equities have risen in large part because of historically low interest rates around the world. Investors have little choice for yield and corporations have invested in their own stock to engineer their earnings per share.  

The Democrats love to remind us that Wallstreet and Main Street are different worlds and that Republicans caused the Great Recession.  By the same token,  the Democrats have presided over this weakest recovery and the income equality that has resulted these past 7+ years. But how can either party claim they have the answers?  

The problem is both parties. The problem is that we have two parties, which monopolize government, and don't show any willingness to work together, or worse. They actually undermine one another and the best interests of our Nation in order to achieve their party's self-interests.  

Any hope and promise for the future offered by either political party is canceled out by the other.  We are locked in battle that has arrested economic growth and prosperity and stymied business investment.  

Can't you see that the solution is neither a Republican one or a Democratic one?  The answer is to break the strangle hold which two-party politics has on America. A third party is the best hope our Nation has to force politicians to find and implement solutions, to dismantle the hold which lobbyists and special interests have on Washington and that Washington has on the States.  We need to reduce the size of the Federal government and take away the motivation life long politicians have to pander rather than do the right thing by having term limits. 

The answer can't be Democratic or Republican because that is voting for more of the same.  The only sane solution is Johnson & Weld.

Friday, August 5, 2016

The Establishment Want Them Out, Which Is Why Johnson and Weld Should Be In


Obama is leaving with our country more racially divided, more economically divided, more politically divided. He is leaving with labor force participation (the truer measure of unemployment) at generational lows - near the lowest it's been in 40 years, even after today's 1/10 percent uptick. Also, the broader measure of unemployment (U6), which includes underemployment, increased to 9.7% from 9.6% in June. With business capital investment at recession lows, and income inequality at historic highs. Regulation is stymying growth with GDP failing to improve enough in 8 years. Home ownership rates are at recession lows. Food stamps are at record highs. And our national debt has increased more than all the presidents before him combined. This are just some of the reasons over 70% in national polls do not like the direction the USA is heading.  
But other than all of that, Obama is a great guy!! I seriously enjoy his personality and sense of humor! Truly love the way he respects and treats his wife & children, and women in general. There are definitely aspects about Obama that are very likable. 
With all said, I am NOT saying I support Trump. Nor have I ever. But I have long said we need to listen to the issues he has identified! So that leaves me with a difficult decision. I want our nation to change direction, and Senator Clinton offers more of the same. Trump is too scary. That is why I believe we need to bring Johnson/Weld into the National DEBATE.
BOTH parties are seeking to shut Johnson/Weld OUT of the discussion. BOTH parties would have you believe that a vote for J/W is a vote for the candidate "you don't want." WHY? Because BOTH candidates represent the establishment - the lobbyist, the super PACs, government workers with an interest in maintaining the status quo, the military that would have to operate more efficiently, existing congressmen/woman who would lose their "pork." For all the reasons the establishment does NOT want Johnson/Weld in the debate, we should WANT THEM IN THE DEBATE!


Thursday, July 28, 2016

Money from the Sky

I think so called "helicopter money," whereby monetary stimulus is directed into the economy, bypassing T-bills and expanding the debt is a superior approach. First of all, it gets more immediate stimulus traction. Up till now, much of the stimulus has not reached the segment of the money supply which circulates in the economy, creating jobs, and spurring jobs and expansion. Second, instead of that stimulus being on the balance sheet of the treasury and an obligation of the treasury, thus tax payers (our children and grandchildren), it goes on to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, off the budget. Thirdly, it is less likely to be used for governmental operations, thereby discouraging growth of our government. The Federal Reserve has a greater opportunity to direct those funds to where they will do the most good. Most previous Fed's stimulus has primarily driven down interest rates and forced investors to chase yield in riskier assets. This has resulted in greater income inequality.

Some friends know I've been hoping for this approach for a long time! If BoE and follows the BoJ lead we may find out if I was right. I have trouble imagining our Fed will get on board. But maybe in some ways they way. At this point our economy is moving forward, but one has to wonder if "helicopter stimulus" could have introduced earlier in the Great Recession for the better.

Monday, July 25, 2016

We Can Be Strong For A Lot Less

While I happen to agree with Trump on many issues including reducing and leveling out corporate taxes, reducing regulation, negotiating better trade agreements which protect American intellectual property, better border control, and other items, I also disagree with him on many things too including his plans to “strengthen our military.”

One area that I find appealing about the Libertarian positions of Gary Johnson, is their plans to reduce the excessive cost of supporting foreign military bases and personnel -- Money that could go to great use in America.  I seriously question whether America would be any less safe.

I believe it is high time for our allies to foot the bill financially and with troops.  There is massive youth unemployment in Europe and those young men & women could learn valuable lessons defending their country and supporting the NATO alliance!

Consider these facts and figures …

The United States has more foreign military bases than any other people, nation, or empire in history.  We have a presence in over 156 countries with approximately 730 bases and over 300K personnel. In Europe, for example, there are some 110K plus US military personnel including 75K in Germany alone.  We don’t just support the people – there are nearly 850K buildings and equipment covering a land area of nearly 30 million acres.

According to one expert calculation, we spend at least $85 billion a year to support this, which is more than discretionary budget of every government agency except for the Defense Department.

Scholar and former CIA consultant Chalmers Johnson described the situation this way in 2004, “As distinct from other peoples, most Americans do not recognize—or do not want to recognize—that the United States dominates the world through its military power. Due to government secrecy, our citizens are often ignorant of the fact that our garrisons encircle the planet.”

Interestingly, while we consider the situation normal and accept that US military installations exist in staggering numbers in other countries, on other peoples’ land, the idea that there would be foreign bases on US soil is unthinkable.

But it’s not just the direct costs.  There is a human toll that comes along with all this expense. According to Chalmers Johnson, “The families of military personnel are among those who suffer from the spread of overseas bases given the strain of distant deployments, family separations, and frequent moves. Overseas bases also contribute to the shocking rates of sexual assault in the military: an estimated 30% of servicewomen are victimized during their time in the military and a disproportionate number of these crimes happen at bases abroad. Outside the base gates, in places like South Korea, one often finds exploitative prostitution industries geared to US military personnel.

And, worldwide, bases have caused widespread environmental damage because of toxic leaks, accidents, and in some cases the deliberate dumping of hazardous materials. GI crime has long angered locals. In Okinawa and elsewhere, US troops have repeatedly committed horrific acts of rape against local women. From Greenland to the tropical island of Diego Garcia, the military has displaced local peoples from their lands to build its bases.

In contrast to frequently invoked rhetoric about spreading democracy, the military has shown a preference for establishing bases in undemocratic and often despotic states like Qatar and Bahrain. In Iraq, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia, US bases have created fertile breeding grounds for radicalism and anti-Americanism. The presence of bases near Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia was a major recruiting tool for al-Qaeda and part of Osama bin Laden’s professed motivation for the September 11, 2001, attacks.

Although this kind of perpetual turmoil is little noticed at home, bases abroad have all too often generate grievances, protest, and antagonistic relationships. Although few here recognize it, our bases are a major part of the image the United States presents to the world—and they often show us in an extremely unflattering light.”

Another area of savings is to reduce cost overruns and simply scale back on new projects.  As the first new carrier design in 40 years, the USS Gerald R. Ford incorporates new technology and operational systems that will allow it to have a higher aircraft launch and recovery rate, reduced manning, and improved survivability against projected threats. The problem is that those things don't work and delivery is years behind schedule and tens of billions over budget!! So, which Presidential candidate do you think would have better handled the situation? So let's see who got the most lobbying money from defense contractors.
First of all, Northrup Grumman, lead contractor on the project, was the # 2 contributor. But how did the 2015-16 money breakouts?
Sanders, Bernie (D) Senate $379,135
Cruz, Ted (R-TX) Senate $360,262
Thornberry, Mac (R-TX) House $354,500
Clinton, Hillary (D) $317,257
Frelinghuysen, Rodney (R-NJ) House $288,000
Lockheed Martin, contractor for the new F35 Joint Strike Fighter Jet, is the #1 Contributor in 2015-16. And, the F35 Project is is $163 billion over budget, seven years behind schedule, and will cost taxpayers about twice as much as sending a man to the moon. The $400 billion dollar project for approx. 2500 planes is the most expensive weapon ever built. It is hard to imagine that we couldn't manage with 1500 plane. But it's easy to imagine the incredible good amount of infrastructure we could do with that money! To give you an idea, the TOTAL Federal Transportation budget for 2016 was $17.2 billion - and that's for roads, rail, air, transit, maritime, safety, and grants!
NOBODY OWNS TRUMP OR GARY JOHNSON! We know the establishment in Washington has been wasting tax dollars for generations. Why would anyone believe that the establishment is going to change? They are called the "establishment" for a reason! We need to reduce the size of our Federal government and give more choice and resources back to the states and local leadership. And that includes rethinking and restructuring our defense! We need USA infrastructure more we need the excessive military projects.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Step Back From Politics of Violence for a Deeper Understanding


The unthinkable is now a pattern. Killing cops has become the thing to do -- the way one who feels suppressed and victimized by the system expresses their rage at the system.

How did we get here? It is NOT new for cops to shoot black guys in the course of police work, whether rightly or wrongly so. And they are NOT doing it more than the past. And there certainly is NOT more police brutality than there has been historically. Access to rifles is NOT new! So why the rise is people shooting cops?

We've seen what is already happening with radical Islamist terror attacks. What is happening with the police shootings is born of the same phenomenon. I think the more recent rise is linked to the increased prevalence of smart-phones with the ability to watch and capture video images. Video is a far more compelling form of media that print. And it is streaming to one's phone from an endless barrage of sources. Watching a video is also easier to do than reading a long article.

Shooters are being radicalized to hate cops and the system and act in vigilant ways by a combination of self-reinforcing beliefs made possible by cell phone videos posted to the internet in conjunction with hate speech, that is also available online. This is forming a narrative in the minds of the shooters which becomes the imbalanced focus of their attention and scapegoat for the cause of the misery and perceived injustice in their own life. Individuals who go down this path tend to compound their bias by choosing sources that support their views. Once this cycle of brainwashing begins it builds on itself and spirals to the point where the person is consumed by hate and resentment. Needing an outlet for their aggression, without a constructive one, such as sports or psychotherapy or art, they take their inspiration from seeing others like commit acts of terror. Eventually, they may release their pent up hostility on the society and individuals who are the subject and cause in their warped mental narrative.

As authorities have been finding in each case of violence, there is very often a trail of social media on the assailants computer or phone. Case in point is the Baton Rouge copy shootings the weekend of 7/17.

Adding fuel to the fires, is the media coverage of such events which illustrate to any would be shooters hot the world will come to know them. Since the outcome is often that the shooter is killed too, rapidly in a hail of bullets, the shooter has the sense that they will be relieved of their emotion pain. Believing that they may be a martyr only contributes to their motivation, which is why the radical Islamist is a much more dangerous trend. These people are incentivised with promises for a fabulous afterlife experience.

Contributing to the radicalization process are charismatic leaders and spokespeople who reinforce beliefs of injustice and a system designed against the population that they empathize or sympathize with - the tribe they belong to. Watching and or participating in protests, the energy of the crowd of like minds validates their belief and may fuel their desire to demonstrate their support. This has long been the case with some Muslim Imams who preach hate. But much more recently we have BLM and other groups, and opportunistic spokespeople like Reverend Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.

Access to weapons is the convenient scapegoat for liberal politicians. Rather than offending their political base with notions of taking responsibility within their own communities, it is far more acceptable to point the blame at guns. But as Nice and the Oklahoma City Bombing in 1995 should have proved to all of us is that the options for destruction exist regardless of whether the assailant has access to assault weapons or not. Recent police shooters have used ordinary rifles.


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Lessons From The Last State

As more and more states, and the Federal government as well, take steps like Rhode Island, our economy is going to shift into a higher gear!  Government listening to business and cooperating with a focus on infrastructure, regulatory reform, tax relief, and a business friendly attitude is the formula for robust growth.  Not the practices of the last 8 years which represented the exact opposite!  Is Hillary about the last 8 years?  Or does she represent more of the same?

And if businesses see things turning around and the attitude of uncertainty shifts to one of optimism, they will rush to put their cash to work through acquisition, capital investment, and market expansion.  Then we are really off to the races as wages, labor force participation, and consumer spending kick in!

Keep in mind another huge positive dynamic. We are supplying more and more of our own energy, rather than importing from the middle east and elsewhere.  So growth in the economy and demand for energy will be an enormous stimulus to our energy sector!  That will equal nearly a trillion dollars that was leaving our economy and going overseas and is now being spent here.  Huuggggee!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/americas-worst-state-for-business-in-2016-takes-aim-at-talent-drain.html