One of the things I like about New Year's day is how it causes us to forward think.
A thesis is forming in my mind. It goes like this. Commodity deflation leads to both producer cost deflation, consumer buying power AND consumer consumption. That leads to both rising corporate profits AND inventory draw down. That leads to increased productivity, hiring, and wage inflation. Which in turn leads to work force expansion, and with that comes greater household formation. The stage is now set for a surge in larger durable orders and new home purchases. Consumer borrowing and spending increase quite a bit. The economy moves into a stronger period of back to back hirer GDP quarters. Finally, the fears of deflation are whipped around and the Fed finds sufficient reason to let interest rates gradually tick up. Stocks enjoy this.
Russia can still spoil the party. The Euro can still unravel. Both would likely happen together. If so, that would be more than markets can handle = big sell off.
Time will tell ... It always does. As we appreciate especially on New Years.
