Friday, January 6, 2017

IF>THEN: You Do The Math on the Middle East


To use a rather crude expression, "The shit is about to get real!"

You can call me crazy, and I would be the first to agree that my psyche is obsessed with this matter for some reason.  But it has been my sense, and I have been speaking up for months now, that we are in important and treacherous times. It would be one thing if it were all "in my head."  But it is not -- I am working off articles in legitimate news sources about actual current events. Shouldn't we all be at least as concerned about a full fledged war breaking out between Arab Nations and Israel as many people are about Russians hacking the DNC?

As we enter the month of March, just after the French Middle East Peace Conference which will no doubt condemn Israel, there is another International Conference, this time in Ireland, but it may as well be any country in Europe, with a slate of speakers that are a “Who’s Who” of radical anti-Israel activists and academics, to literally "Explore the Elimination of the State of Israel" as the conference is titled. It does not take a 5th grader to tell what their conclusions might be!

I find the timing of these two international conferences to be either profoundly coincidental or divinely prophetic.  Is there anything to the dates?  In the month of March, Jews celebrate Purim. Purim is a joyful and fun festival based on The Book of Esther to commemorate the defeat of Haman, an evil Persian who plotted the destruction of the Jews, only to meet his and his families end for doing so.

So where might things in the Middle East go from here?  
There are many moving parts, and as I perceive them, they are somewhat linear in terms of sequence. Furthermore, each part is consequential, in other words dependent on the other.  So, one leads to another.  To lay them out I will apply a boolean expression, otherwise known as an "IF > THEN STATEMENT," starting with a long set of IF's:

IF - The French Peace Conference culminates with a proclamation condemning Israel and laying out wording for a United Nations Resolution declaring a State of Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza, with Jerusalem as its capital, and the Israeli settlements are required to be vacated, and IF;

IF - The United Nations supports passage before Obama and Kerry leave office, and IF;

IF - The Congress and New President pass a bill to move the USA Embassy to Jerusalem, and IF;

IF - TERRIBLE riots erupt on the Temple Mount along with Jihad in Israel and the West Bank, and IF;

IF - Jordan, which is responsible for controlling the Temple Mount, supports such revolts rather than putting them down, and IF;

IF - Israel police and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) take steps in to assertively put down that violence on the Mount and in the West Bank, and IF;

IF - Terrorist attacks breakout throughout Europe, and possibly the USA, and IF;

IF - Iran, and possibly other Nations attack Israel or otherwise become directly involved in the violence, THEN:

THEN:
A war in the Middle East has broken out!

Then, sides must be chosen! And I suspect Israel's Prime Minister will make that perfectly clear in a televised speech, saying it is time for every Nation to choose between Israel and Iran.

No doubt what side America is on. My guess Britain too. On the flip side, I do not think there is any doubt about Lebanon, where Hezbollah calls the shots. Jordan, given the IFs above, we can assume takes the enemy side. There are some 100+ Nations in the UN that have already shown their enemy stance against Israel!

But what nations will join the actual fight?  Syria, given their current state of internal military challenges, can at best send over missiles.  Israel knows that, having literally JUST divulged intelligence about those advanced missiles sites, so one might expect Israel to proactively take them out.  But I am not so sure that either Syria or Russia takes the enemy side. Israel's relations with Putin Russia are actually quite good.  And, Trump's "bromance with Putin" does not look so stupid after all when you consider what is brewing here.

Did US Intelligence Services miss the potential for all of this, like they missed ISIS and Bhengazi!? Or are they just too preoccupied with election polotics and DNC hacking? I seriously doubt Israel's intelligence is behind the curve. This may explain why Bibi Netanyu said he would wait until Trump is in office before divulging intelligence to the USA President. Bibi knows better than to trust anyone in the Obama administration, and especially not Obama or Kerry themselves, let alone our UN Ambassador, who have all brought this pot to boil by orchestrating the UN resolutions 2334 which kicked off the entire series of events. Thank goodness the USA Congress has Israel's back, still bleeding from Obama and Kerry, and Bibi knows it.

But what will Egypt do?  What will Saudi Arabia do?  If it is a case of my "enemies enemy," then the question must be what do those countries perceive to be their bigger threat, Israel or Shia Muslim centered Iran?  Any guess on what side France and Italy will take?

YOU DO MATH:
When you work out this IF>THEN statement, what do you come up with?  I come up with War in the Middle East.  But is that a World War?  There are bound to be many millions with the eyes out for the Mesiah.

And, as you can see, there are "a whole lot of ifs!"  Besides, who am I to call for this level of destruction.

I made it very easy to follow along.  This is an unfolding situation which can be turned back at any "IF statement" along the way. The next two big events to keep an eye on are the French Middle East Peace Conference in Paris on Jan. 15th, followed by the UN response while Obama is still President.  If I am right, Kerry has foreshadowed in speeches and writing that the Obama administration is going to take two key parting shots at Israel before leaving office. Two States or Not Two States?  That is the question!

Remember the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 and what came out of that - the Treaty of Versailles, the "Peace to End All Peace" which ultimately lead to the rise of Germany, Hitler and WWII.  Let's pray that what comes out of the Paris Peace Conference of January 2017 doesn't lead to WWIII.


LINKS TO OLDER POSTS:

World Warning

Change Can Make Your Head Spin

Bibi Grabs Victory from the Jaws of Defeat

It Begins

Trump Wants Biggest Trophy Ever

Russian Reset

One State of Israel