"Under the 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act, Congress explicitly named Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and demanded that the U.S. embassy be relocated there or risk losing State Department funding. But the law includes an important caveat — the president can waive the requirement for a six-month period in the name of national security interests. All administrations have opted to waive the requirement every six months, citing security concerns and advice from experts, as well as opposition to Congressional efforts to direct executive control over foreign policy."
As we know, Trump campaigned with a repeated promise to move the USA's embassy back to Jerusalem - in simple terms - to NOT sign the extension. It is a promise I believe he totally intends to keep. Frankly, I expected that he wasn't going to sign the last 6 month extension, which came up for the first time during his presidency back in June.
Trump's excuse for extending the move another 6 months as all Presidents have done for over two decades was "to give the peace process a chance" was reasonable. By the same token, it seems to me that there are more likely underlying reasons. (There always are.)
It is practically inevitable that a large portion of the middle east, and Muslims around the world are going to go apoplectic over the embassy move. As far as Israel is concerned, the most likely ways are outbreaks of violence and terror at "The Mount," from rockets fired out of Gaza and from Lebanon, and with attacks on civilians in the West Bank and Israeli cities.
We know that Israel will use crushing force in a "measured" response to such violence. We also know that no matter how measured Israel's handling is, UNESCO and even certain allies will condemn her. What I wonder most about is how Israel will address threats of and actual aggression coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel appears to be readying for a major thrust into Lebanon to deal a big blow to Iranian backed Hezbollah forces and bases.
I suspect that the last embassy move extension was less about "giving peace a chance" and more about giving war a better chance. The last extension provided Israel and the USA with important time to plan, arm and train. This was time needed to deploy the new F-35 strike fighter and other new modern systems. Simply put, knowing full well the peace process had virtually no chance, the last six month extension provided crucial time to prepare for war.
What is quite interesting to me is the possibility of a partial connection to what is happening in Saudi Arabia, as far back as the Arab Summit in Riyadh. Israel, the USA, and Saudi Arabia have a common enemy - Iran. I believe the USA and Israel have been working intensely to ensure that should there be an action by Israel in Lebanon, which may also include or draw in its ally Iran, that S.A. stands down, and may even covertly support Israel.
We can't forget about Syria, which is also an ally to both Lebanon and Iran. Without going into details, suffice to say that Syria has for all intents and purposes been neutered by their own internal matters coupled with Israeli strikes against Hezbollah's supply chain from Iran within Syria, and the USA's missile strike against a key Syrian airfield at the beginning of Trump's term.
When you boil this down, a trap is being set for Hamas in Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and potentially for the ultimate target, Iran. We are closing in on the next deadline for it to be sprung - the need for Trump to sign the next extension in December.
Is Trump about to deliver a Christmas gift to both those who elected Trump and Israel, by reaffirming that Jerusalem is the eternal capital of Israel and moving our embassy back? Is this part of what Trump has in mind when he says we will be saying "Merry Christmas" this year. If so, and the gift is delivered by virtue of Trump rejecting to sign the extension, will Israel get what it wished for?
Is Trump about to deliver a Christmas gift to both those who elected Trump and Israel, by reaffirming that Jerusalem is the eternal capital of Israel and moving our embassy back? Is this part of what Trump has in mind when he says we will be saying "Merry Christmas" this year. If so, and the gift is delivered by virtue of Trump rejecting to sign the extension, will Israel get what it wished for?
What do you think?
