Yesterday I contacted the health care aid who took care of my mother years ago. She is from Jamaica, and she told me how awful things are there. I asked for her "venmo number." That got me thinking.
Increase Rates by Category (2015–2024 vs. Historical Baselines)
Major Disaster Declarations:
Averaged 63 per fiscal year (FY), a 61% increase from the historical average of 39 per FY in 1988–1997 (the first decade post-Stafford Act); this reflects a near-doubling in frequency over the prior 30-year baseline of about 55 per year.
Emergency Declarations:
Averaged 22.6 per year (totaling 226), a roughly 150–350% increase from pre-2015 historical averages of 5–10 per year; the surge was driven by a 2020 spike to 104 (COVID-19-related), with post-2020 averages stabilizing at ~18 per year—still over double historical norms.
Fire Management Assistance Declarations (FMAGs):
Averaged ~80–90 per year (comprising ~38% of total declarations), up approximately 50–100% from 1990s–2000s averages of 40–60 per year; this category has grown steadily due to escalating wildfire threats, contributing to the overall tripling of total declarations since the 1990s.
Total Declarations (All Categories):
Averaged 164 per year in the most recent five full years (FY2020–2024), more than double the 1990s–2000s average of ~70–80 per year and over 2.5 times (250%) the 1980s baseline, straining federal resources amid climate-driven events.
TO APPRECIATE THE TREND AND THE PROBLEM, DON'T LOOK AT JUST NOW. LOOK BACK FURTHER
Extending the historical view back to the 1950s (when modern federal disaster declarations began under the Disaster Relief Act of 1950) reveals an even more pronounced upward trajectory—essentially a 10- to 20-fold increase in annual averages over 75 years, accelerating sharply since the 1990s amid climate change, population growth, and expanded eligibility criteria. This dwarfs the already notable decade-over-decade jumps
Overall Trend (1950–2024):
From single digits annually to 150+ in peak recent years—a ~20x increase in total declarations (over 4,500 cumulative vs. ~200 in the 1950s).
WITH $40 TRILLION IN DEBT, CAN WE GET TO A POINT WHEN THE MONEY AND RESOURSES SIMPLY DO NOT EXIST TO RECOVER FROM A DISASTER?
Yes, the escalating U.S. national debt—projected to surpass $40 trillion by late 2025 or early 2026 based on Congressional Budget Office baselines—raises serious questions about fiscal sustainability, especially as disaster declarations continue on pace.
Most disaster funding comes from supplemental appropriations (e.g., via the Disaster Relief Fund), which are essentially deficit-financed and added to the debt pile. In FY2024 alone, Congress approved ~$110 billion for hurricanes and wildfires, on top of FEMA's baseline $30 billion annual budget—pushing total disaster outlays toward $150 billion amid record events.
Potential Tipping Points for Insufficiency
Interest Crowding Out (Short-Term Risk, 2025–2030):
At $40T debt and ~3–4% average interest rates, annual payments could hit $1.2–1.6 trillion—20–25% of the federal budget. This squeezes discretionary spending, where disaster aid lives. If disasters spike (as trends suggest, with 150+ declarations/year), Congress might prioritize them via debt ceiling hikes, but repeated brinkmanship (e.g., 2023 near-default) could delay aid by months, exacerbating damage costs (every $1 delayed can balloon to $2–3 in total recovery needs).
Inflation and Printing Limits (Medium-Term, 2030s):
Disaster costs have tripled since 2000 (adjusted for inflation), while debt service has quintupled.
The Fed can monetize debt to cover gaps, but excessive money creation risks 1970s-style inflation (10–15%), eroding purchasing power for recovery materials/labor. With supply chains already strained (e.g., post-COVID lumber shortages added 20–30% to rebuild costs), hyperinflation could make resources "unaffordable" even if dollars exist—think Venezuela-scale breakdowns.
Resource Scarcity Beyond Money (Longer-Term, 2040+):
Debt doesn't directly limit physical resources, but fiscal austerity could underfund mitigation (e.g., FEMA's $1B/year for resilience vs. $100B+ in annual damages). Climate models project 2–3x more billion-dollar disasters by 2050; combined with debt-to-GDP hitting 180–200%, we might see rationed aid—e.g., only "national priority" events get full federal support, leaving states/localities to shoulder 50–70% more (as in underfunded 2021 Texas winter storm recovery).
Political and Global Triggers:
Gridlock over entitlements (Social Security/Medicare, 50% of budget) could force cuts to "non-essential" disaster funds. Globally, if foreign holders (China/Japan, ~$7T) dump Treasuries amid U.S. dysfunction, borrowing costs spike 1–2%, adding $400–800B/year to interest—potentially forcing a "disaster debt cliff" where recovery competes with basics like food stamps.
IF WE PASS THE TIPPING POINT ALL BETS ARE OFF!
Signs of the End of the Age
3 As he sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately, saying, “Tell us, when will these things be, and what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?” 4 And Jesus answered them, “See that no one leads you astray. 5 For many will come in my name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and they will lead many astray. 6 And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet. 7 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are but the beginning of the birth pains.
9 “Then they will deliver you up to tribulation and put you to death, and you will be hated by all nations for my name's sake. 10 And then many will fall away[a] and betray one another and hate one another. 11 And many false prophets will arise and lead many astray. 12 And because lawlessness will be increased, the love of many will grow cold. 13 But the one who endures to the end will be saved.
