Step Back From Politics of Violence for a Deeper Understanding

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36822618

The unthinkable is now a pattern. Killing cops has become the thing to do -- the way one who feels suppressed and victimized by the system expresses their rage at the system.

How did we get here? It is NOT new for cops to shoot black guys in the course of police work, whether rightly or wrongly so. And they are NOT doing it more than the past. And there certainly is NOT more police brutality than there has been historically. Access to rifles is NOT new! So why the rise is people shooting cops?

We've seen what is already happening with radical Islamist terror attacks. What is happening with the police shootings is born of the same phenomenon. I think the more recent rise is linked to the increased prevalence of smart-phones with the ability to watch and capture video images. Video is a far more compelling form of media that print. And it is streaming to one's phone from an endless barrage of sources. Watching a video is also easier to do than reading a long article.

Shooters are being radicalized to hate cops and the system and act in vigilant ways by a combination of self-reinforcing beliefs made possible by cell phone videos posted to the internet in conjunction with hate speech, that is also available online. This is forming a narrative in the minds of the shooters which becomes the imbalanced focus of their attention and scapegoat for the cause of the misery and perceived injustice in their own life. Individuals who go down this path tend to compound their bias by choosing sources that support their views. Once this cycle of brainwashing begins it builds on itself and spirals to the point where the person is consumed by hate and resentment. Needing an outlet for their aggression, without a constructive one, such as sports or psychotherapy or art, they take their inspiration from seeing others like commit acts of terror. Eventually, they may release their pent up hostility on the society and individuals who are the subject and cause in their warped mental narrative.

As authorities have been finding in each case of violence, there is very often a trail of social media on the assailants computer or phone. Case in point is the Baton Rouge copy shootings the weekend of 7/17.

Adding fuel to the fires, is the media coverage of such events which illustrate to any would be shooters hot the world will come to know them. Since the outcome is often that the shooter is killed too, rapidly in a hail of bullets, the shooter has the sense that they will be relieved of their emotion pain. Believing that they may be a martyr only contributes to their motivation, which is why the radical Islamist is a much more dangerous trend. These people are incentivised with promises for a fabulous afterlife experience.

Contributing to the radicalization process are charismatic leaders and spokespeople who reinforce beliefs of injustice and a system designed against the population that they empathize or sympathize with - the tribe they belong to. Watching and or participating in protests, the energy of the crowd of like minds validates their belief and may fuel their desire to demonstrate their support. This has long been the case with some Muslim Imams who preach hate. But much more recently we have BLM and other groups, and opportunistic spokespeople like Reverend Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.

Access to weapons is the convenient scapegoat for liberal politicians. Rather than offending their political base with notions of taking responsibility within their own communities, it is far more acceptable to point the blame at guns. But as Nice and the Oklahoma City Bombing in 1995 should have proved to all of us is that the options for destruction exist regardless of whether the assailant has access to assault weapons or not. Recent police shooters have used ordinary rifles.

Lessons From The Last State

As more and more states, and the Federal government as well, take steps like Rhode Island, our economy is going to shift into a higher gear!  Government listening to business and cooperating with a focus on infrastructure, regulatory reform, tax relief, and a business friendly attitude is the formula for robust growth.  Not the practices of the last 8 years which represented the exact opposite!  Is Hillary about the last 8 years?  Or does she represent more of the same?

And if businesses see things turning around and the attitude of uncertainty shifts to one of optimism, they will rush to put their cash to work through acquisition, capital investment, and market expansion.  Then we are really off to the races as wages, labor force participation, and consumer spending kick in!

Keep in mind another huge positive dynamic. We are supplying more and more of our own energy, rather than importing from the middle east and elsewhere.  So growth in the economy and demand for energy will be an enormous stimulus to our energy sector!  That will equal nearly a trillion dollars that was leaving our economy and going overseas and is now being spent here.  Huuggggee!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/americas-worst-state-for-business-in-2016-takes-aim-at-talent-drain.html

Post Brexit Perspective

It happened.  After over four decades, which have had plenty of rough moments and more than enough contentious feelings, the UK has voted to split from the European Union.  Everyone is freaking out.  Some people are crying real tears of sadness and others are rejoicing.  Uncertainty is the net emotion.  So after the shock, what's next.  I've been trying to form a narrative in my mind.  To do that, I have turned to my trusty typewriter.  Writing brings clarity, creativity, and confidence.  So here it goes.

There are many aspects to the shift that just began. Here is my list of observations and assumptions in no particular order.  Hopefully by the end a theme emerges.

To begin with it must be said that nothing has changed, yet.  The vote is an expression of the will of the people. BUT the actual process and terms of exiting the EU still need to be negotiated and will take years.  Everyone needs to relax.

A major defining feature of the EU is the common currency of the Euro. However, the UK never gave up their currency - the pound.  So they don't go back to the pound, since they never left it.  What's more, they have a central bank with the independence to support their economy's need for liquidity and stimulus.  An advantage several other UK countries wish they had.  (Bet Germany is enjoying the competitive boost they just got from the decline in the Euro!)

The UK may have left the European Union, but they didn't leave Europe.  A flight from London to Frankfurt is still approximately 1 hour and 25 minutes.

The UK declared independence not war.  Just because the UK voted to withdraw from its treaty with 27 other European nations, doesnt mean the UK is not still an ally with every single one them.  The USA was the first to stand up and reinforce that in or out, our relationship is solid.

The UK is still a member of the Permanent 5, G20, the G7, and NATO.  So it still has a seat a some very important tables.

The people of the UK are still citizens of the same counties they were before the vote.  Someone who was British, Irish, or Scottish, still is.  Furthermore, the governments in the's countries which make up the UK still exist intact.  The UK didn't vote to give up their national identity and sovereignty, they voted to increase it.

No business was dissolved or economic need eliminated.  Life goes on with all the same essentials.  Soldiers report to the same commanders at the same posts. People will get up and go to the same place of work, buy their eggs at the same market and their children will have the same school teachers, even though a new chapter will have to be added to the history books.

There are the same media, actors, tourist attractions, churches, and all the things which add color to life.  More has stayed the same than has changed. That said, this was a referendum for change. So what about that?

Starting sometime in the next two years, and probably sooner than later, the UK will have to reach new agreements on trade.  I wonder if the UK will just have to negotiate one agreement with the EU commission, or whether it is in a position to reach separate agreements with each of the European nations individually.  I believe it is the former, but surely this will be a pain in the ass either way. Heaven knows this is a windfall for some of those in professions like law and accounting.  But the question is not whether to trade!  Surely, Germany still wants to sell Mercedes in England.  The question is how freely the EU and the UK will trade.  It is on this issue more than any other that uncertainty remains. One of the greatest privileges of being in the EU was the freedom to trade freely. Weakening the UK's economy in order to grow the EU economy ought to be viewed as a zero sum game.  But politics and people have a way of complicating otherwise simpler decisions.  Still, Ocams Razor suggests that the last thing any of the parties want is to spoil the party by bringing on a recession!  So it is in the mutual interests of most everyone to move negotiations along and promote growth.

Going forward, a UK domicile won't count for an EU domicile.  This has major ramifications for international organizations.  But here is the thing.  It doesn't mean those same firms do not want a presence in the UK.  It does however mean that they may want to open another office in the UK.  Some may move from the UK to the EU.  By the same token, some UK organizations may see the need to establish a presence in the UK.  The "Remain" camp created a lot of fear that the sky was falling.  Now that sky has fallen the economists will push the numbers again and no doubt they will be different.  Because now real business planning will require that the political agenda be put aside. It remains to be seen what the real net effect will be.

Borders don't change but crossing them will.  If anyone thinks that an Italian won't be able travel to England or an Irishman to Paris, they are irrational. They may have to add a few minutes to clear customs. The ones who we will have a harder time for sure are the migrants and refugees.  That's at the crux of one of the biggest changes.

In declaring a sovereignty they never lost, the UK took back from the EU the right to determine immigration policies.  Now, instead of group of unelected EU beauocrats creating a quota for how many refugees the UK must accept and deciding who can live in England, the English people can control their population. Gone is the right for anyone in Europe to choose to live in London. Or anyone from Dublin to live in Brussels.  Is that such bad thing?  After all, isn't this the ultimate concept of national sovereignty?  How would Americans like it if the EU mandated we take 500,000 refugees who have no means of support? The biggest threat to the EU is that a majority of people in France or Italy will get the same idea as the UK.  Many already have!

By giving up EU membership they also will not be subject to all the other various rules and regulations handed down in Brussels.  This is at the heart of the sentiment marketed simply by the Brexit supporters as "taking their country back."

Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, which is hardly ever good for business and markets.  BUT there are some things that are highly logical.  One of them is that a deep European recession would be bad for the status quo.  Nobody wants that, least of all the EU beauocrats!  If anything threatens to spoil their meal ticket it is a failing economy which would only elevate the burdens of the refugee crisis and fuel more the demand from citizens from other member nations for the same path the UK took.  It is in the interests of the EU, the UK, and for that matter the USA, and all central banks, to come up with a strong positive growth policy response fast!   And, to send comforting signals to business and markets about a smooth and workable transition for the UK out of the EU.

What's more, is the likelihood that the EU will be pressured to implement reforms to its policies which drove the UK out.  The beauocrats can be absolutely counted on to act in the interest of their own self preservation.  Now that they see that their EU jobs are in jeopardy watch how fast they are less generous with taxpayers money to support refugees!  It's easy to be alturist with somebody else's money.

So as bad as the Brexit is, there may be some good that can come from it.  It is interesting to test the counter factual.  And possibly the world will find better solutions to the refugee crisis.  For example, dealing with the causes.  After all, what good comes to nations like Syria if all their peaceful citizens and the families and people who are the future of their society leave?  How do they regrow a country which has lost its population and all that's left are jihadist and religious radicals?  Has the question ever occurred to you whether Germany is really trying to do Syria a favor by taking those people, or are they motivated by the need for labor to deal with demographic problems in their own economy? Like the Broadway show "Wicked," the back story often reveals a different perspective.

Long live the Queen!

What Does the World Do - When Monetary Policy Does NOT Work?

Central banks around the world have driven interest rates to historical lows, and even negative in some cases.

"Imagine a bank that pays negative interest. Depositors are actually charged to keep their money in an account. Crazy as it sounds, several of Europe’s central banks have cut key interest rates below zero."

The problem is that low interest rates are NOT having the stimulative impact we need.  Demand for capital is not triggering lending and consumers seem are uncharacteristically withdrawn.  Corporations are holding their cash, acquiring their competitors, buying back their stock, and only becoming more efficient with technology and improved business processes.  None of this behavior is promoting the spending and demand that the world's economy needs to counter deflation. 

More money has been printed over the last 5 years than all of history.  All in a futile attempt to increase inflation and stimulate demand.  But it's not good enough.  Fears of a rise in anti-competitive behaviors (tariffs, currency manipulation, governments using laws to hurt multinationals, etc.), political upheaval over reforms, and nationalism/imperialism are present, all because monetary policy is not having the desired effects.  What's the answer?

Some believe it's time for the USA to raise rates.  That's makes no sense with our dollar already rising more rapidly than ever and tons of corporations warning about exchange rate headwinds damaging earnings.  Besides, since when do you fight Deflation by raising rates?!  

By the same token, super low and negative interest rates are distorting investor and saver behaviors who are forced to chase yields from more risky investments.   The potential for very negative consequences can not be underestimated.  We need a better way.  And we have it.  

A better way was presented by British economist John Maynard Keynes wrote about in his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money published in 1936 during the Great Depression, in contrast to his a previous works on aggregate supply-focused 'classical' economics.  Unfortunately, back then, Keynesian stimulus came in the form of WWII.  

A massive military expansion has its appeal for some.  And given the threats around the world, we are already seeing it in countries like China, Russia, India, Saudia Arabia, and other areas.  Fortunately, thanks to the "Sequester" that went into place here in the USA as a result of unresolved national debt ceiling negotiations, the USA is not going down the same military build up path.  Surely the hungry arms industry, congressional hawks, and warmongers would if they could. 

What we need is some Keynesian stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending.  Heaven knows we have enough need for it!  Time has come for a new approach to monetary stimulus.  Let's stop paying banks interest on reserves and start investing in the USA!

"All In" - What do you have?

The monetary standoff between Greece and Germany, being played out by the ECB, took a turn for the worse yesterday (2/4/15). Battle lines have been drawn. Greece has moved all their chips in with a creative debt restructuring plan, under which for all practical purposes they will never pay most of it back. Give them two points for not using the words - write down.

Who is going to be the winner? It won't be Germany. For some reason, their hardliners have no memory ... because if any country should understand the need to write down debt it is Germany! They received a huge write down after WW2. But all they can think about is the austerity rules they expect Greece to live up to.

Well Germany, you can forget about it. Greece elected a President, Party, and new finance minister because they said they will break the rules. At least the Greek leaders are being polite as they essentially tell the Germans to fuck off. The Greeks may have under estimated the price for that. Or the Germans may be under estimating the price for holding Greece to wall. Or BOTH! The big winner will be France, Italy, and Spain! Here is why I believe so.

Greece holds out. Time is ticking on a big debt payment and they will all go to the bell. Each with the position that they get it their way. Which amounts to either a creative way of getting a giant debt haircut, or Greece defaults. If this were poker, Greece has just gone all in on a losing hand. Germany calls the bluff. Game over. Say goodnight Greece. Have a nice new day, and good luck starting over. So what are they to do?

They can say, "Welcome back" to the drachma. And after some new currency laws, all the Greek citizens who ran the banks, only to find that only the firsts in line got any Euros, will now be proud to accept drachma instead. And for the rest of us, get ready for the best tourism packages we've seen in a long time, after the riots are over in about a year.

Meanwhile, what did Germany win in this poker game. A big fat bad debt write off. Along with France, Italy, Spain, and everyone else with any skin in the Euro. It is starting to look real bad for everyone at Euro party, I mean pact. Coming apart at the seems? Maybe, but I think not. Too much to lose. Funny how it is when you are standing at the edge of a cliff you get a fresh perspective. And what do they see? They realize that Greece was on to something! Default is such a messy thing. There has to be a better way.  Enter ECB, wait, let's just call the debt problem we have, Hmmm, what did Greece call it, we can't use that name, but .... what ever name they can come up with that will make a whole bunch of trillions in debt go away for so long that two generations from now nobody will remember where it came from.

The newly elected Claude Junker of the Economic Union will show up in the picture too, with fresh ideas for brand new debt.  After all, now that they've just freed up so much borrowing power, thanks to the power of the printing press and the fact that they just shoved so much of the old debt out of the way, they can practically start borrowing money all over again.  But this time is different!!  Yeah, right.  Well, at least for a while.  Long enough to stimulate the economy a "new way" with serious infrastructure spending.  (At least that's what I'm hoping for.)

And as the Europeans and the ECB applaud their own brilliance for saving the Euro, will they thank the Greeks for their great idea on how to handle debt that can't possibly be repaid? Of course not!  But the least they can all do in Europe is vacation on the Greek Islands! (But, people from Germany, suggest you find a way to lose the accent. Otherwise don't be surprised if you get very sick from from every Greek meal you eat.)

OR, Plan B, for the 12th time.  GREECE CAVES and swaps a "kick the can offer" for a "stay in the Euro" deal.


UPDATE: 4/27/15:
Since I published my blog post in February, the notion of bankruptcy and an exit have been trending.  It appears to me that the leaders in Europe are foreshadowing the future in an effort to give banks and the markets and finance ministers time to get ready.  At some point the expectation may be so much in the market that the actual announcement can come as welcome news and even has the potential of bringing a relief rally.  Here's an article which posits the position I have had for quite some time.  "We should let Greece to bankrupt." 

New Image Emerging

The sands are shifting.  The status-quot is giving way to market forces.   

Greece is going socialist or Marxist - and the economy is destroyed.  Germany and the ECB will use them to set an example. Venezuela - has imploded, but just needs a bit more time to collapse.  Russia is sinking - while it hopelessly uses its massive reserves to breath.  They're losing their world power status and rebuilding can't begin until Putin takes a long holiday - for good.  Oligarchs will buy his ticket and help him on the plane. 

The debts of both Greece and Venezuela have to be written down, by way of a default or some back door deal.  Either way, capital (money and talent) leaves, their markets are crushed.  Banks are run.  Game over.  But the phoenix will rise.  As it is finally going to do in Cuba.  

Spain, France and Italy look at the carnage and are determined to take a different path.  ECB draws the line and "does whatever it takes" to restructure their debts.  Seeing how turning back from reforms has hurt Greece, the ECB uses this as leverage to force faster progress on reforms but makes the pill more easy to swallow by using the printing press.  Together with Junker and the Economic Union, a new growth strategy is introduced.  It  involves reforms coupled with development funding.  In combination with low interest rates and E-QE, Europe takes a turn and their currency strengthens - at least it stops weakening.  This puts a floor under USA equities whose earnings are to hard to hedge otherwise with such a weak Euro. 

USA firms see the potential in Europe and put their reserve capital to work overseas. Plus, this works as another form of hedge to exchanges. Look at the difference this made for Ford who manufacturers in the region.  Rather than bringing reserves home, USA firms decide it is time to invest in Europe.  The Federal Reserve and Congress encourage USA investment in Europe. 

America's picture is changing.  Exchange rates are hurting earnings.  And, the oil industry is costing jobs faster than they're being created by the stimulus of low energy costs.  In an effort to curb costs, there is further downward pressure on expenses, which doesn't help USA growth. Raising rates is a non-starter until late 2015 at the earliest. More patience becomes the new operative way of thinking.  But we still need a new catalyst for growth in the USA!  Something has to come out of congress that is positive for growth.  Low rates, low energy help, but there needs to be a new picture that emerges for prosperity. I'm convinced it needs to be infrastructure - of all kinds - transportation, energy distribution (electric, natural gas and hydrogen), and a more secure Internet.

Along comes India.  Cuba might have been enough of a boost to our economy, had it not been for all the other negative shots. But new hope for the world economy, including China, is going to have the taste of curry.  I love curry!  Bring it on!!  They can take up some of the slack in materials - just in time to save miners from supply destruction.  Same to be said of shipping!  

I have to say, my compass has been spinning around trying to find North since 3Q 2014.  And, I'm still working this out in my head.  My investing starts with a macro-picture, so I've been having a very hard time lately with my compass spinning around looking for north.   Frankly, if I had just followed the plan that I blogged about months ago and gone to mostly cash, I'd be a lot happier at this moment. Costly lessons, hopefully learned!  At least it might be said that equities are looking more reasonably priced at this point.  That is unless you think we're entering a bear market.  

Do we need more capitulation before there is a massive turn?  Or is there a lot more pain to come first?  Couldn't tell you.  Only the market can answer that for sure.  Gotta love the intelligence of markets and chaos!  That's one of the things I love most about capitalism.

It appears tensions are building in the bond market for some sort of big turn.  It seems to me that another long super cycle of debt is coming to a head.  The sub-prime and US mortgage debt bust triggered the last financial crisis, and the solutions for that bought some time, while simultaneously contributing to the much greater super cycle of sovereign debt - national debt.  While the last crisis started in the USA, where we had the ability to move quickly and formulate a response, the next and larger crisis begins offshore.  And by the time it arrives here the worldwide damage will already be so enormous that a USA response will be like one plane attacking King Kong or Godzilla.

Of course there must be a response.  Mankind made this problem, so mankind can fix it.  It is in our DNA to try!  Maybe QE becomes QF.  E does follow F.  So maybe easing is followed by forgiveness.   After all, what's the real difference between debt which Greece can't possibly pay back and debt it doesn't have to?  In a word - inflation.  Hmmm, now isn't that the solution everyone is looking for anyway?!!

Now OR Never for Mario Draghi

With European inflation at .3% versus the 2% target, the ECB head Mario Draghi had better start using actions versus words to stimulate growth in Europe.  My belief is that he knows his rhetoric and promises have lost their effect.

But I also believe Drahgi's been looking a better means of delivering financial stimulus than the traditional sovereign debt purchases the the ECB has used thus far.  To this point, QE has just been an enabler for the governments to continue with their old ways.

Draghi has pushed politicians to make the kinds of systemic changes to the conditions that have bogged down Europe - heavy regulation, businesses burdened with workplace rules and limited by Unions to restructure in order to be more competitive.

The strong dollar against the weaker Euro is giving European businesses a strong pricing tailwind, which should help them.  And a dramatic drop in oil is leaving more money for consumers.  But ultimately, more aggressive monitory policy is needed to really get the engine revving.  Especially, now with the drag that a slowing China and Russia's collapsing economy will have on Europe.

The solution Draghi has been waiting for has come in the form of the newly elected European Union President, Juan Claude Junker.  He's got the right ideas if you ask me.  Firstly, Junker's stated number one priority is

"... getting Europe growing again and getting people back to work. "

Those words could have been delivered by any politician, but Junker thinks more like a capitalist than the socialists who have kept Europe in the grips of terrible economy for decades!  Since taking office Dec. 10, 2014, Junker has listed clear objectives including "freeing small and medium-sized businesses from red tape, to promote entrepreneurship and job creation."  He wants the commission to "focus on cutting regulation, making smarter use of existing financial resources, and making flexible use of public funds - to provide up to 300 billion Euro in additional public investment over the next three years."

Here is list of ways Junker wants this investment to be targeted:

• Infrastructure – broadband, energy networks and transport infrastructure
• Education, research and innovation
• Renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Projects to help young people find work (building on the Youth Guarantee scheme).

At a recent December press conference, Mario Drahgi announced that the ECB has just agreed to prepare "for further measures."  The pundits, and even those who initially believed in Draghi seem to have written off Draghi's comments has more of the same "talk."  I'm not so sure.  Draghi, who earned his Doctorate in Economics at MIT, is smart enough to know when time as run out on rhetoric.  Drahgi's been waiting for a man like Junker - and now he has him!