Crazy Ain't So Bad

There are times I feel crazy. Gerald Goodman, PhD, an emeritus professor of psychology at UCLA says. “Believing that you are going crazy is a good clue that you are sane." But I am referring to "crazy" in a somewhat different sense.

Crazy is naturally construed in terms of illness - actual psychosis and a medical condition such as bi-polar disorder or schizophrenia.  That is not the crazy I feel. Although, I have experienced a couple panic attacks in my life which gave me pause to wonder and seek advice.  What I mean by crazy in the context of this blog post does, nonetheless, have to do with the perception of reality. 

People, I find, tend to have a preference for self-supporting or reinforcing their bias. They tend to hang out with people who share a similar world view and follow media and news sources which support their own narrative.  Doing so reassures us that our perception of reality is accurate and reassures us that we are right - that we are not crazy.  

It stands to reason that we like people who are like us. It is comforting to believe we see clearly and that we are right,  So we tend to stay in circles of thought which fit for us and where we fit in. That way we avoid the emotional tension and stressful disonnance that comes from disagreements.

By the same token, there is a difference with being open and willing to engage with people who have very different views than we do, and looking for a fight. Some folks enjoy confrontation.  They enjoy the challenge and want to take up the fight.  This can be a good thing, especially when it comes to worthwhile cause and related social activism, such as the fight against hunger or hate crimes. But even in situations such as these there can be useful observations to be found and solutions to be gained from the willingness to see other views on the causes.  

An example may be helpful for what I am trying to explain.  So here is a brief try.  Suppose two people agree that poverty which leads to hunger is a bad thing. Those same two people can disagree on a particular solution, such as whether the answer is for the Federal Government to raise the national minimum wage. In such a situation, the person for the increase may perceive the person against the increase to be an evil person who is unwilling to address the problem of hunger. When in reality the person opposed to the national increase simply has different views on the solution. 

Back to where I am going with this blog entry ...

When we see things differently, it is enough to make one feel crazy.  In other words to feel like our sense of reality is "out of touch."  But there are different realities.

Depending on perspective - how two people can view the same paradigm can differ 180 degrees. And a paradigm can be extremely nuanced, so there are multiple levels and possible interpretations.  Unfortunately, it seems that today, especially with recent politics, that the divide is greater than I can personally recall.  (My general awareness of the greater world I was living in began after the Vietnam War was coming to a close.  I suspect the divisions were even greater during that period.) 

There is something positive about feeling crazy.  And there is something constructive to challenging ourselves to acknowledge and consider views very different from our own.  

When we don't leave ourselves open to other possibilities our ability to find common ground between one another is impeded.  And we may miss opportunities for solutions.  Almost surely we forgo the potential for teamwork and the likelihood is that people work at cross purposes with frustratingly few benefits.

Therein lies an essential and deep problem with society today.  The issues today with debt, governments role, foreign relations, racism, healthcare, environment, etc. are extremely troubling. I perceive everyone of these problems to be man made and thus solvable.  But they are so large that they will ONLY be overcome if we work together. 

The difference between Liberal and Conservative views are stagering.  People's minds are made up.  We assure ourselves that we are not crazy by convincing ourselves that our perception is correct and the others are wrong, and that there is no other possible way to justify the situation, and that only either a Democratic or Republican approach to problems is right.

Prejudices are made of this.  Anger and fear come from this. Hate grows out of this. Obstructionism is the result of this.  But finding common ground and mutually workable solutions and teamwork is NOT what comes from it! And that is why our congress and our country and even friends and family members find themselves at odds.

There are times I feel crazy.  But I view that as a positive sign that I need to dig deeper to find a better understanding and means to communicate with the other side.  And when I have the opportunity, with someone who is open to me, to try to offer another perspective, in the spirit of mutual respect and with a loving spirit.

The very sad and distressing side to this is that there is often a very unfriendly and even hostile reaction to anyone whose views are different. This is not to say that we should tolerate acts of hate!!!  But what I do find personally difficult is how harsh people can judge others who see circumstances in the world and have a different interpretation.  In an ironic twist, maybe the world would not be as crazy and scary as it is if we each felt a bit crazy and tried to seek a better understanding with greater openess. 

What Hineni Means To Me

“Surely the Lord is in this place, and I did not know it." 
Jacob's Dream, Genesis 28:10−32:3

What does Hineni mean to me? 

According to Cantor Linda Hirschhorn, Hineni is about the attitude of the entire person - their emotional and spiritual presence. 

In the Bible, each time God calls out to the prophets Abraham and Moses, they answer, Hineni (Hear I am), to signify their fully present readiness to respond. 

Throughtout life, I believe their are opportunities to hear - opportunities to be present and open to the possibilty that we have the potential to have a life-changing experience for ourselves or someone else. And that by hearing the call, we might offer some solace and inspiration.  But only if we say Hineni הִנֵנִי.

Hineni represents the potential we have to change the world - or our world and people around us - through a decision, resolutuion, and actions.

Hineni represents an readiness and attentiveness.  It is rooted in the belief the God is in every moment and every place, in the smallest and biggest things.  And that it is up to us to notice, to listen, to see the potential that life offers to serve and to be grateful.  

Hineni also represents faith and confidence.  When we say Hineni, we proclaim our willingness to overcome fear.  To act on faith no matter what the odds and despite our limits. 

One Love, One State! Israel.

One Love, One State!  Israel.

The "two state solution" solves nothing.  It is time to declare one state of Israel with one Capital.  One State, from Gaza to the Golan Heights, east to west, where all peace loving people, of all faiths can live together, pray separately, and prosper in a country that guarantees their safety.

Those who want peace, and a better life for the children, it is time to recognize that dividing one of the tiniest countries on the planet, and the only Jewish State in a massive region with dozens of Muslim countries, is not a path toward peace.  The "two state solution" is a step toward destruction.

After nearly 40 years since the Camp David Peace Accords, all attempts to make a two state solution work have failed. The people of Israel - Jews, Christians, Muslims, and others - deserve a better life.  Children deserve to be raised to love the Land of Israel, to respect one another, and to build a better future together!

Contrast a diverse Israel with the precondition for peace that Abbas and Muslim neighbors have.  Watch this short 2-minute Netanyahu video to see what I mean

So on this Thanksgiving I am stepping out and declaring that I have changed my views.  For many years I believed in a fantasy.  I no longer accept myth that Arabs in the region will ever be satisfied with dividing Israel.  I am done dreaming that creating two states will ever be enough for Arab countries to acknowledge Israel's sovereign right to a peace.  Today, I believe in "One love, One State. Israel."

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Since I made this blog post, I came across this article.

The following article from World Israel News illustrates the hopelessness of a two state solution.  All of Iran's agents consire with to destroy Israel.  One can not negotiate a true or lasting peace with leaders who have no peaceful intentions.

"The commander of Iran’s Basij force, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, predicted Israel will not exist in a decade.

An Iranian general has estimated that State of Israel will not exist in 10 years and will be wiped out by the Palestinians.

Addressing students on Monday, the commander of Iran’s Basij force, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, expressed his hope that the “notions, thoughts and ideology that led to Iran’s Islamic Revolution would help Palestinians get rid of Israel in the next 10 years,” Iran’s Fars news reported.

He explained his prediction and said the Palestinians would annihilate Israel by 2025 as an extension of Iran’s belligerent policies in the region. He said that the Islamic Revolution helped Iran get rid of the US over 35 years ago, rescued the country from Saddam Hussein and Iraq and helped the Lebanese to get rid of the Americans.

“Considering these developments, liberation of Palestine by the Islamic Revolution is not unlikely at all,” Naqdi said.

On several occasions, Tehran has stated its “principled policy” of supporting anti-Israel terror groups, including Hamas. Iran supports the Hamas terror organization and prefers it over the Palestinian Authority (PA), and has armed it and supplied it with funds to fight Israel. Similarly, Iran support the Lebanese Hezbollah terror organization, which threatens Israel north"

Predictions - Part II

This post is a continuation of Predictions Part I.  Here are more big changes that I see coming.

I should point out that based my past experience, my crytal ball tends to be premature. Therefore, 2017 may be to aggressive of a timeframe.  This is not a hedge against being wrong about my prediction, but rather a warning to investors and a reminder to myself that timing of investments is important, and often requires patience, not to mention the need to wait for signs to support taking a position.

While Trump has been battling it out with Obama, House Speaker Paul Ryan has been very aggressively preparing action plans, called "A Better Way" and building support among his Republican and Conservative constituents.  The ground work laid by Ryan will prove invaluable in aiding the new President's administration to hit the ground running.

As far as timing goes, markets respond to signals extremely fast. Even more so today, as a result of the speed at which news and other information travels.  For gains to be gotten one has to have the courage of their convictions.  It is extremely difficult to beat the news, and once it is in the news it is more often than not, already in the market.  That is what makes good foresight, vision, and frankly good predictions valuable.  So with that said, lets get to my next set of predictions.

Prediction #6:
Derugulation will unleash new competition, which in turn will encourage greater innovation, new choices, and lower costs. One area we will see the benefits is in health care.  Among them, changes at the FDA translate in to new drugs and cures.  Look for benefits in other industries including education, affordable housing, energy, etc.

Prediction #7:
Welcome to improved relations with Russia.  Much has been made of Trumps cozy additute towards Putin, and Putin's alledged prefence for Trump.  Almost all the opinions on this subject have been negatitive.  I have long seem positive benefits from what I foresee to be a restart of American-Russian relations.  I expect Trump's meetings with Putin to happen very early in his Presidency and for it to produce very positive results. I anticipate rapid and tangible actions on both parties parts. Fears will ease. Sanctions will ease. Cooperation will rise. Economies will rise. Living standards in Russia will rise, along with the Russian people's affection for Trump. Trump will be cheered in the streets of Moscow.  And Putin will be happy to endorse it. A new era of trade and better relations with Moscow will dawn. All of which will highlight the failures of the Obama administration's and Hillary's foreign-affairs policies. Benefits will spill over and give us greater leverage in negotiations with other nations as well present oppotunities for shifts in our defense strategies, which in turn will reduce threats and allow us to reallocate some defense assets.

Couple this with Trump pressuring many NATO countries to pay a fairer share of their own national defense. Some will chose to contribute to USA defense support, and others will invest more directly in their own military.  Either way, this trend will contribute to the financial resource that the USA has to increase the quality of our own defense forces, as well as sales to USA defense contractors.

Prediction #8:
Some manufacturing comes home.  Just as much NEW manufacturing starts here. Between the political pressure, reduced regulations, advances in AI and automation, and the growth of the USA economy will all play a part in influencing business leaders decisions to either bring some manufacturing back to the USA and/or not to leave in the first place.  Lower Corporate taxes and taxes on repatriating cash will result in USA companies with overseas cash to bring some of those dollars home in order to invest them in the USA.  Not all dollars will come back - as American entities use some of that cash to invest overseas.

Prediction #9:
Energy independence is a game changer.  By taping all energy options from nuclear, to coal, to natural gas, oil, wind, solar, geo-thermal ... you name it, the potential for USA to become energy independent is in sight.  The implications are broad and far reaching.  From defense, to stimulus, to jobs, holding down the cost of living, and other benefits, energy independence will reap profound benefits.  The losers will be OPEC. All of this is good for Israel!  Isn't that nice!

Prediction #10:
Philanthropy is the new favorite place for wealth to go.  Political action has had the most attention for quite a while.  With the baby boomers retiring and passing away, the desire to influence politics will be less attractive than the desire to heal the world and leave future generations with a better world.  Plus, older people are more apt to think about their legacy.  Some will desire to find cures for illnesses that they worry may be in the genetic future of their children and grandchildren.  As the economy strengthens and even greater wealth accumulates, people will also have a greater means to be generous.

Prediction #11:
The oceans are the greatest frontier on the planet.  From new species, findings that will lead to medical discoveries, lost civilizations, amazing natural resources, environmental implications, and more, the potential to be found in our oceans is immeasurable.

BONUS Prediction:
Artificial Intelligence (AI), from the likes of IBM Watson and Nvidia, and others, give America an enormous edge in this field.  Impacts to nearly every aspect of life on planet earth are huge and easy to under estimate.

It Is a Scary World, Which Is Why It Is A Scary Time

By all indications, Trump's conservative hard-line cabinet choices have harsh views about Islam, not just "radical Islamic terrorist."  This does not bode well for tolerance.  It looks like the future will test America's standards of equality and to some degree, our very identity.

Here we are again grapeling with the need to reconcile our Judaian-Christian founding with our value of religious freedom. Where do the lines of acceptance get drawn?  What constitutes security and at what point do we cross the line to where a position is an act of intolerance?  This is not a new debate but it is going to be had in the context of a government that will have all three branches postitioned far more to the Conservative Right than they have been in a long time. And that is scarying the blazes out of many, while reassuring just as many.

But why is that a bad debate to have?  Of course this will be painful and scarey for American Muslims!   My heart and concern sincerely go out to the vast majority of Muslims in America who love America!

But one must also be brutely honest and objective when it comes to National security.

Most recognize that there is a vast body of Muslims in the Middle East, and now Europe, who view America and the West with contempt and hatred to some degree.  It could be rightfully argued that is their right.  One could even successfully argue that America was founded on the basis of granting that right, and that "We" have died protecting that right!

By the same token, there are undeniably some with Jihad intentions.  There are those who denounce our culture, cling to their "holy law" over, above, and in place of American law.   And there is a segment within them, who do pose an existential threat to our safety. There is no denying that America has spent trillions in homeland security and defense for dealing with this.

So how can we deny the need to mitigate this threat at the border in order to reduce the threat from "within" our borders? Looked at in this context, is it not logical for the President to appoint individuals who stand clearly for identifying the threat as he and others see it?  Is not America's security and American's safety the first order of responsibilty of the President and the Federal Government?  It truly, and Constitutionly is!

It is a scary world, which is why it is a scary time for both Americans who value our saftey and security, and Muslims who question how our defense against threats posed by some interpratations of Islam will effect them.  But in an effort to protect us, we must also protect our values.

Peace loving American Muslims have every right to frightened. They also have every right to expect America to protect them and guard the rights which they are entitled to as much as anyone else.

One could say that the situation with Islam is a test of the soul of America.  There is good reason to believe America will past this test because for over two centuries the Constitution, and America's foundation has been tested.  As Johnny H Killian from the Office of the Secretary of State and the Library of Congess put it, the brilliance of our Founding Fathers, the framers of the Constitution, is how they "successfully seperated and balanced governmental powers to safeguard the interests of majority rule and minority rights of liberty and equality, and of the central and state governments."

I imagine the authors of our American Constitution refered often to scripture. The following verse from Matthew 16:26 comes to my mind in the context of the questions I posed in my post. "What good will it be for someone to gain the whole world, yet forfeit their soul? Or what can anyone give in exchange for their soul?"

America Is Alive and Well

Democrats are in mourning.  Really?!!  COME ON - WAKE UP AND SMELL THE FREEDOM! One of your first degree* relatives didn't die. And America certainly didn't die!! To the contrary ...

America should rejoice in the fact that it just did something that we fought a bloody revolution for and two world wars to protect. We just did what billions of people around the world ENVY and dream for!

Our citizens got to judge an extremely hard, long, peaceful democratic contest. Then we got to go to the polls and make our selection, knowing that each and every vote would be counted.  Knowing that no one would discard or falsify the results. And our Electoral College process worked exactly like our brilliant and visionary Founding Fathers designed it to in our Constitution. Then we got to hear and see conciliatory speeches from the losers, and a gracious and respectful acceptance speech from the winner. Both sides' leaders pledged to reach out and work with the other in the spirit of our Nation! And, Americans have been as free to peacefully protest as they are to celebrate.  Ultimately there will be a peaceful transition to power.  WOW!

Your candidate won or lost, but America did not die. America came to life. Just as she does with each election.  America got to throw off and throw out. America also got to affirm and declare.  America got to be heard.  And America got to listen.

Senator Schumer, the proud Jewish Senator from my district in NY, became the most powerful Democrat in Washington as his colleagues unanimously backed this consummate dealmaker as their new leader. Schumer said “We are ready to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Republicans – working with soon-to-be President Trump on issues where we agree. But we will go toe-to-toe against the president-elect whenever our values or the progress we’ve made is under assault."

Dead?  Mourning?  Snap out of it!  Could there be a greater affirmation that our Democracy is ALIVE AND WELL?!

America's ideals did not die. To the contrary, we just just shouted for the whole world to hear that our dead soldiers did NOT DIE IN VAIN, and in Abraham Lincoln's immortal words from Gettysburg November 1863,  "This nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."

* Note: Judaism has a tradition of "sitting Shiva" when one of our 7 seven first degree relatives dies. Shiva (Hebrew: שבעה‎‎, literally "seven") is the week-long mourning period in Judaism for first-degree relatives: father, mother, son, daughter, brother, sister, and spouse.

P.S. As far as the future of America, and more specifically the economy, I have laid out some predictions.  If you care to see them just click on "PREDICTIONS." 

Post Election Predictions - Going into 2017

Each year I like to look ahead and make some predictions about our economy.  As someone who actively invests, it is important for me to form a macro-view in order to make investment decisions from the "top down" as they say.  Of course, one must also pair one's macro views with bottom up analysis of individual companies.  And, as I've learned in my more recent years, to also be guided by the "technicals."  

From my macro-view predictions I form my investment thesis, which in turn I apply to the selection of industry sectors and then individual stocks or ETFs. Before I list my predictions, let me preface my overall thesis about the change going on in our Country.  

With the Presidential election over, America is at an in-flexion point - a point of change.  Some people can not see it. Some people saw it coming.  For the last few years we have been stuck between two very different visions for the future. This created uncertainty.  Because of the lack of clarity, with two very different possible political outcomes, businesses and investors have delayed decisions and actions. Capital was not put to work. Banks didn't lend. Opportunities were put on hold.  Consumers delayed large purchases.

With the outcome of the election, and the fact that leadership now controls the executive and legislative branches of government, not to mention key appointments in the judiciary branches, a more distinct vision for the future is taking shape.  I know that many do not like what they see and are scared.  But there is a positive narrative too.  As an investor or business owner, it behooves you to anticipate and position for the future.  

It is obvious that the pendulum is swinging to the right for sure! Lots of smart cookies who definitely have anti-establishment views are taking over Washington. Big changes are ahead in the Land! You can't tell me it wasn't time. The streets are gonna be running pink. As in pink for all the pink slips that are going out. Exciting stuff! Change is always a bit un-nerving, more for some than others. And truthfully, it is too early to say how effectively it all works out. But for all of us who wanted to "drain the swamp," there is a distinct gurgling sound being heard!

But enough ... here's my first five predictions, with others to follow in the future:

Prediction #1:

We will have a massive wave of immigration! What Trump wants to do for infrastructure is going to require an enormous volume of labor that America does not have. In order to rebuild our infrastructure we will see a surge in LEGAL immigration from Latin America including Mexico. Hispanic population in the U.S. is going to grow and prosper. How ironic!

And much of the greatest rebuilding needs are in CITIES, where blacks andHispanics will benefit. Trump said during the campaign that he'd be better for those communities and this is one reason why.

Expansion of infrastructure is going to require Imports of raw materials in a big way! This is going to lift mining and depressed countries like Brazil and Venezuela. It is also going to give a big lift to both U.S. and foreign steel industry. Which in turn it's going to be a big help to South America and our trading partners whose economies are in desperate need! It will also help U.S. rail and shippers that transport these materials.

Our expansion of energy in the U.S. in a big move towards energy Independence is going to play into this as well. Each dollar of foreign oil that becomes a dollar of U.S. oil equals stimulus in the U.S. The expansion of our energy infrastructure means demands for raw materials and labor too. And, energy independence is in our National Security interests!!!

Like Obama wanted to leave a legacy of transforming healthcare, Trump wants his the legacy to be the builder who rebuilt America. Let's hope Trump is more successful than Obama - who's system is a imploding.

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NOTE: When people think of immigration they tend to recall Lady Liberty and Ellis Island. Remember, that was the "big door" for LEGAL immigration in the day! Trump favors a BIG DOOR and legal immigration. He also wants to deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. Which we should do! Once the others, who do not have a criminal history, see that they can immigrate legally, they may leave and apply to come back through a legal process. I think the definition of the "wall" will be revisited, in the context of looking for better strategies and tactics for border control.

Prediction #2:

My first prediction was a contrarian one. I said that we would see a giant increase in LEGAL Immigration in America in order to support the $1 trilliion infrastructure projects that the Trump Administration will seek to put through.

My second prediction ties directly into infrastructure again, and more specifically to transportation. Expect new announcements to push forward High-Speed Rail connections between Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington DC. This had been talked about for a long time and Amtrak would be the big winner, along with related Industries and of course, Americans.

Outlying cities with Amtrak connections to those major cities, such as Albany and Poughkeepsie NY also stand to benefit.

Since railroads, as well as the steel industry, are Unionized for the most part, they're likely to get behind Trump's initiative in a big way. We're already hearing them support re-renegotiating of U.S. Trade agreements. Getting the Unions to come on board and support a Republican Administration is a major blow to the Democrats.

Prediction #3:

This was an easy one, until Sessions became the A.G.  As a staunch legalization opponent it is hard to say what direction the Federal Government will go.  Recreational marijuana needs to be legalized by the Federal Government in order to clear the way for the existing and growing number of States which have already done so to come into compliance.  With the passage by CA, MA, NV, and ME, joining OR, WA, and others in legalizing recreational pot, the Federal Government can no longer simply look the other way.  Regardless of whether the Federal Government wants to, it will eventually  have to bow to pressure from the rolling trend of legalization by more and more states. 

What's key here is not just the fact that there is a new recreational drug!  There are all sorts of possible implications that result from this fact.  Here are some of the consequential results I predict:

• A drag on beer and liquor industry sales.  In turn, this will present some challenges for the restaurant and entertainment industry which depend on alcohol sales for a large percentage of their profits. 
• Fewer deaths from alcohol and related accidents and acts of violence, domestically, and otherwise. 
• Greater profits for insurance companies that have paid out large sums in relation to all the negative impacts of alcohol on society.
• Fewer crimes that involve both alcohol and marijuana, resulting in Reductions in the prison population and efforts by Governments to reduce the cost of prisons.  Police will reallocate resources to better uses, which will have beneficial results.  Corrections industry Unions and workers will have some struggles. 

Prediction #4:
The biggest loser from the election is Democratic Socialism, as Bernie called it.  Capitalism is going to make a comeback.  And, with it, the spirit of Entrenepeurship and self sufficiency.   The best way to explain why I am all for a major set-back for Democratic Socialism is to watch this video. 

Prediction #5:

Italy breaks from Euro and goes back on the LIRA.  Like the U.K., citizens will vote down the reforms that are required to stay in the European Union.  Germany and France will try to find a compromise, leading to a complete restructuring of the E.U.  While France will publically stand behind Germany, their leaders will be under tremendous pressure to address border/immigation issues, forcing Germany to accept concessions which Greece and the U.K. could not extract in their negotiations.  Italy's departure marks the unraveling of the E.U. framework as we know it.  What comes next is still impossible to tell.  But one thing is for sure, Trump isn't the only one who's going to manage to bring down the "establishment!"

CLICK HERE FOR MY SECOND SET OF PREDICTIONS.