Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Prosperity Is a Hate Spoiler

First we saw a reconciliation with Romney and Cruz, two fierce opponents.  Then Trump held a "Tech Meeting" which included Bezos from Amazon and Cook from Apple, two of the most powerful business leaders in the world who were vocally at odds with candidate Trump. That meeting could have gone much worse, and instead signaled positive intention by all parties to work together to promote innovation and improve cyber-security.  Now we learn of a meeting with another major business leader, who is sure to influence Mexico's president in order to bridge differences and mend fences (pun intended) with Mexico.  Text from an article about that meeting is pasted below.

Trump takes his oath of office in about 30 days, and I have never know a President to be so actively and openly setting the stage to hit the ground running  upon taking office.  All while also traveling the country to thank voters in battleground states that gave him the election. All while facing efforts by those who insisted that Trump concede the election, but now openly try to discredit Trump's win and maintain a divided nation.

Animal spirits and a new pro-business/pro-America age of private and public investment could be unleashed to usher in the greatest coordinated business and economic development period our country has seen since the end of WWII.

Trump is creating positive inertia.  He is building momentum which hopefully will carry into capital investment, entrepreneurial risk tacking, business expansion, and and renewed consumer activity.  Government stands ready do its part through terribly past due tax reform, infrastructure investment, simpler and less onerous regulation, and a leadership's expression of an enthusiastic vision for the future.  Trump already has the slogan that says it all - Make America Great Again!

The legacy of the great recession is hate, jealousy, fear, and bitterness.  We have  millions of scared and disappointed people looking for someone to blame.
Unlike the last eight years which only made the rich more wealthy and the income inequality gap larger, this expansion promises opportunities for lots of angry people. Angry white men who have lost their factory jobs, angry black men and angry Hispanics who yearn for a piece of the pie, angry students struggling to pay their student debt, angry middle class folks seeing their financial status eroded, angry seniors on fixed income whose interest income has faded to practically nothing, angry tax payers who keep having their hard earnings sucked away from them by governments that are starved for a revenue base that has had too little benefit from economic expansion. Just watch how much less anger there is in America when America is growing more prosperous.

Trump has many faults.  And I don't ask you to like him. He says things he shouldn't say. And he walks a line he should not walk with impressions that his words and actions give about how to treat women, and people in general. He is a bully. He is a bastard for certain business practices. And he has tremendous constitutional conflicts of interest. So there are more than ample reasons to not want to support Trump personally.  So here is how I reconcile that in mind.  I am supporting American prosperity and I believe that what can happen under President Trump will ultimately lead to that and less hate!

Text below is from an article about meeting Trump had with Carlos Slim last night:

"Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim got a "very positive" impression from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump about ties with Mexico after the two met for dinner on Saturday in Florida, a spokesman for the Mexican telecoms billionaire said on Monday.

Trump angered Mexicans during the election campaign by pledging to build a wall on the U.S. southern border and make Mexico pay for it, as well as threatening to ditch a joint trade deal and impose punitive tariffs on Mexican-made goods.

Those pledges sparked criticism from business leaders including Slim, who said Trump's plans could destroy the U.S. economy. But following the Nov. 8 election, Slim offered a more upbeat take, saying that if Trump succeeded, it would be good news for Mexico."

Footnote: Listen to how understand how poverity breads contempt, jealously, hate, and lead to socialism and beauracracy, and government control . . . Of the WORST ORDER.

Monday, December 19, 2016

Latkas and Pork Chops

Latkas and Pork Chops
An Interfaith Chilren's Story 
Dedicated to Sarah & Michael's Pregnancy 
by Saba Bob


Two of the favorite foods in my home are latkas and pork chops.  

Mommy makes the best latkas on Hanukkah.  It's so much fun when she does!  We all help.

Daddy grates the potatoes.  One potato, two potatoes, three potatoes, and more!   His hands get tired from all the grating. 

Then I mix the grated potatoes in with the eggs. They are so cold, and my hands get tired from all the mixing.  Phew, my job is done.

Now it's Mommy's turn.  She puts them in the frying pan and our whole house smells like latkas.  

We all watch them turn golden brown. Mommy knows just when to take them out of the pan and put them on paper towels so they can dry.   

Mommy makes the best latkas, but Mommy never had them until she met Daddy.  Nanny  didn't make latkas in the home Mommy grew up in.  I'm glad Mommy and Daddy met.

Another one of the favorite foods we eat in our family is pork chops. My Daddy always said that my Nanny made the best pork chops. 

Every time it was Daddy's birthday my Nanny would make him pork chops.  Nanny's whole home would smell like pork chops.  

Nanny would spread her special breadcrumbs and seasoning all over the pork chops. Then she would put them in a frying pan with her special oil.  Only she didn't call it oil.  

Then Nanny would stand over them while they cooked.  She waited for them to turn golden brown.  Nanny knew just when to take them out of the pan and put them on paper towels so they can dry.

My Daddy loves pork chops but Daddy didn't have pork chops when he grew up. His Mommy didn't make them in his home.   I'm glad my Daddy met Mommy and Nanny.   
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I am lucky because in my home I get to grow up with both latkas and pork chops.  I think Mommy and Daddy were always made for each other because Mommy and Daddy both love applesauce!

The Genius of Our Founding Fathers

Does it bother you the HRC won the popular vote, but not the election? Does that seem unfair? Consider the following justification for our Electoral proces written by Robert Gehl for the Federalist Papers Project.
True, HRC received 2.8 million more votes than Donald Trump on Election Day.And if the election was decided by the popular vote, than we would be swearing in a President Hillary Clinton.
But that’s not how it works. And – as he has said many time – if Donald Trump was campaigning for the popular vote, rather than the electoral vote, he would have campaigned much differently. Perhaps he would have spent more time in California – a state that voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton.
But he didn’t and Hillary’s margin of victory in that state was 4.3 million votes – or 61.5 percent. And therein lies the rub.
The purpose of the Electoral College is to prevent regional candidates from dominating national elections.
California is now a one-party state. There were zero Republicans running for statewide office and no GOP candidates in nine of California’s congressional districts. At the state level, Investor’s Business Daily reports, six districts had no Republicans for the state senate and 16 districts had no Republicans for the state assembly.
HRC was going to win California’s 55 electoral votes, so Trump didn’t campaign there.
If you take California out of the total, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.4 million. Also, if California voted like every other Democratic state – where Clinton’s margin of victory was 53.5 percent, the two candidates end up in a virtual
Alexander Hamilton got it right when he concieved the Electoral College. And now, sore losers, who insisted Trump should accept the election results, are not willing to do so themselves. There is a word for that. But I will leave the name calling to others who so easily call people deplorable, stupid, racist, etc. and group all Republicans and Convervatives together with the small Alt Right fraction.
Democrats need to stop looking for excuses outside their party's failures and mistakes. The Russians did not decide the election. Nor did Comey. Americans knew what they were doing. They know how corrupt Washington is, and how "pay for play" is ruining our Nation. They see how divided and discouraged our Nation became under present leadership. They can tell how failed our foreign policies, immigration policies, and over regulations are. And very soon, our Electoral College will prove, for the infinite time, how brilliant our Founding Fathers were.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

What Will You Do, When Your Are Two?

A Story for Baby Charlotte
by Saba Bob

What will you do, when you are two?
Will you put on a shoe, or hear a cow moo? 
Will you go to a zoo, to laugh at a kangaroo? 
There is much to do, when you are two.

What will you see, when you are three?
Will you look up a tree, or down at a honey bee?
Will you get to the sea, or learn your letters with me?
How much fun will it be, to be as big as three.

What will you have in store, when you are four?
Will your friends come to the door, so you can play on the floor.
Will you ride waves at the shore, and begin to soar. 
Will you know so much more, when you are four?

What will arrive, when you are five?
Will you ride a bike, and learn to dive?
Will you make believe you can drive,
And feel happy to be alive, when you are five?

What will you do for kicks, when you are six?
Will pick up sticks, and have lolly pop licks?
Will you stir the cake mix, and blow out the candlesticks?
Will you play fun tricks, when you are six?

There is a great big world waiting for you. 
So much for you to see, its true. 
I wonder what you will do, when you are two.

Friday, December 16, 2016

Trump Wants the Biggest Trophy Ever

Trump's wants to go down in history as the one who sealed the biggest deal there is .... the Israeli peace deal.  He also wants to please his daughter Ivanka, who he trusts more than anyone in his life.

Trump is going to be directly involved with his new Ambassador in negotiations. Ivanka will be "in the room when it happens." She and her husband Jared are going to very engaged in this process! Ivanka will be right by his side, while Jared operates largely behind the scenes with Israel.

Who knows exactly what Trump has up his sleeve, but my sense is he is going to go after a deal that will settle things for Israel in ways no other US President has.

There are a few aspects I expect to stand out early as Trump moves forward. Each of them are a 180° shift from previous policy, which after all, hasn't worked in 40 years.

Out of the gate, Trump will send a strong message to the Palestinian authorities that he has a very different stance than past Presidents.  It will be obvious which Palestinian parties will not have a seat at the table and that the USA is prepared to back Israeli efforts to marginalize them.  (He is basically saying, Go to hell Hamas.)

1. He makes it obvious that he stands with Israel, over the Palestinians.
2. He moves the US Embassy to Jerusalem, making it perfectly clear that it is the eternal capital of the Jewish State
3. He signals to world that the US is prepared to back away from the two state approach.
4. He bring Russia into the process to bring leverage on Iran, Syria and Lebanon.
5. He supports Netanyahu in every effort to clamp down on know terror organizations in the M.E., particularly in Gaza, West Bank, and Lebanon.
6. This point ties in with #5. He takes zero shit from Iran and closes more doors on them developing or obtaining a nuclear weapon.  

Trump is already setting the stage these positions. Notice what just selected US Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman said, "If the Israelis don't want to do it, so he doesn't think they should do it. ... He does not think it is an American imperative for it to be an independent Palestinian state."

Trump's most recent move, his Embassy appointment, is the sure sign that the gloves are coming off, and the sleeves are being rolled up.  We are either in for a fight, or we are going to be getting down to brass tack negotiating.

Trump is going to put his own negotiating skills to the ultimate test, in his quest for his biggest deal ever.  He may land the biggest deal in history. OR, he may be setting the stage for the Messiah to show up!

One Love. One State. ISRAEL.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/16/donald-trumps-pick-for-envoy-to-israel-expects-embassy-in-jerusalem.html


Monday, December 12, 2016

Putin and Trump Bromance

Trump is taking a ton of flack over his recent criticism of the CIA.

It is about time there was high level criticism of the CIA.  After all, they blew it on ISIS, Benghazi and Libya, Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, and 9/11.

As for Trump letting Pence take CIA daily briefings, unless something urgent surfaces, I don't see the problem.  Obama missed 4 our 7 briefings.  Besides, all Presidents have a huge human resource pool, from Secretary of State, to Senate committees to Pentagon to Cabinet professionals, all with far greater knowledge  to handle the daily intelligence chatter.  Instead of cririticism, Trump deserves kudos for smart use of his time. Does anyone seriously doubt that an important, or urgent matter won't be brought to Trump's attention if it needs to?  Absurd to think otherwise!

As for Russia, one of things I've believed for a couple years now, is that we are playing Russia all wrong.  And I think Trump is smart to rebuild Russian and American relations, along with encouraging Russia to rebuild its economy. I listed it as a 2017 Prediction on my blog.

A poor and desperate Russia, caused by USA sanctions is not in America's interests in my opinion.  We have backed Russia into the corner long enough and as far as I am concerned Trump is doing the right thing by seeking to work with Russia.  The Russian people are going to embrace Trump when he holds out his hand in peace.  And when Trump pushes to ease sanctions and develop greater trade with Russia, the people of Russia are going to give him a heros welcome.

The Russian people have suffered economic hardship long enough.  The best thing  for USA security, let alone international security and the war against radical Islam is to foster strong and positive relations with Russia.

No, I did not forget about Crimea.  I say let it go. We need to stay out of their business.  America needs to meddle a lot less in other countries disputes.  What happens in Crimea, let alone the Ukraine is much less in our National interests than we have made it.

Did Putin and Russia want Trump to win?  Hell yes. And so what - they have every right to perceive one candidate as being preferable!  Heck, look at how Israel's Netanyahu lobbied before congress against the Iran deal when he thought Israel's National security was at stake.  I don't see that in and of itself as a bad thing. Plus, there is such hypocracy!  For decades America has been has been actively trying to influence the politics of other nations, to the point of overt efforts at regime change. Putting an end to that practice is one of the reasons I voted for Gary Johnson.

Did Russia hack the DNC?  Perhaps.  But Trump has agreed that needs to be investigated.  And bipartisan members of congress agree it should be too and it will be.  But the problem with exposing emails and any damage it may have caused HRC rests with the fact the her close assistant, and her dick-head husband Weiner had damaging communications on his laptop which surfaced during an FBI investigation.  Hillary and Democrats can blame Comey all they want, but the whole terrible mess is of Hillary's making in the first place.

It all boils down to the fact that the Democrats hate Trump have yet to do exactly what they insisted Trump needed to when he lost the election, as they all expected he would - accept the results!

Sunday, December 11, 2016

New Year's Brings Good and Bad Cheer


We are just days away from the New Year and the swearing in of Donald Trump as the 45th President.  For many, this is the scariest of occasions. They are still trying to steady themselves for a bad 4 year New Year's Eve hangover.  For those sad souls, New Year's hopes are pinned on impeachment.  (Haven't we seen that before.)

While some feel like they are watching their worst political nightmare happen before their very eyes, others including me see a brighter potential future.  Must so many Americans be so disssppointed, one way or the other?  Can America have it both ways? 

Evidently we can have our un-merry political disappoints and prosperous New Year too.  Don't take it from me.  I offer the following proof from the recent post election Consumer Sentiment Survey:

Quote from The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for December- 
"Consumer confidence surged in early December to just one-tenth of an Index point below the 2015 peak—which was the highest level since the start of 2004. The surge was largely due to consumers’ initial reactions to Trump’s surprise victory. When asked what news they had heard of recent economic developments, more consumers spontaneously mentioned the expected positive impact of new economic policies than ever before recorded in the long history of the surveys.

[To put these results into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is approx. 15% above its historic mean. ]

How much does consumer sentiment matter?  On the one hand, the common perception is that the “Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy.”  On the other hand, experts point out that consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of a productive healthy economy.  The Hands have it!

It is easy to argue that consumer spending is not the mainstay of the USA economy, and that "investment" is. Business spending on capital goods, new technology, entrepreneurship, and productivity is more significant than consumer spending in sustaining the economy and a higher standard of living.

Enrepreneurial formation and activity drive the economy!  And these rely on the availabilty of capital, productivity, and technological advances.  This principle was discovered and developed by the brilliant French economist Jean-Baptiste Say in the early nineteenth century and is known as Say’s Law. In fact, Jean-Baptiste created the word “entrepreneur” to describe the primary catalyst of economic performance.

Clearly, things are clearer since the election.  For better or worse, at least we all, with the exception of Jill Stein, now know who the next President will be.  That alone is HUGGGEEE!  (Sorry, had to say it.)

But here is something we all should be able to agree on. Trump is a very a "pro-business" and "pro-American jobs" President.  Markets, businesses and investors, expect lower and more simplified taxes, large investments in infrastructure, reduced regulation, and improved (re-negotiated) trade terms. Prospects for new Intitial Public Offerings ( IPO) are looking up, which will raise important capital for business expansion while simultaneously freeing up venture capital for new rounds of investment. Thus compounding growth and innovation.

The economy is also going to get a lot of help from its friends ... queue upbeat music. 

Advances in technology, such as Artificial Inteligence, transportation with self-driving and drones, and new business models such as AirB&B and the "Gig-economy" with the likes of Uber, are all reshaping opportunties for entreprenuers and increasing American productivity and competiveness.

Expansion in USA capital markets will benefit further from the massive impact of the energy revolution taking place in America. Moving from energy dependence to energy independence will have large and profoundly positive effects on the American economy and trade deficit. And, if President Trump reverses the negative trend for American manufacturing to a positive direction, in combination with this energy revolution, we have got quite a one-two set of positive economic forces on our hands.  The Hands have it again!

Frankly, I've only scratched the surface of all the positive potential of forces. No room to expand on the benefits of world synchronized monetary easing, pent up demand and replacement cycles, new household formation, and other major forces at hand. Surfice to say, I believe a giant economic spring has sprung. And, if I'm right, there will be a lot more blooming this spring than flowers!

All this lifts demand for USA goods and services. Which leads to business investment and bank lending.  Which leads to improvement in wages. Which leads to a rise in consumer sentiment.  Which leads to consumer spending. Which takes us back to the begining.  Such is the great spirals that both expansions and recessions are made of.  
Gone are the yesteryears of slow growth. Gone are the yesterdays of election uncertainty.  Things are shaping up to be a very prosperous New Year.  Beyond that, between black swans and chaos, nobody really knows. 

Unfortunately, from a political standpoint, a bit more than half of Americans drank from the HRC & Obama punch bowl, and they look to be waking up with a miserable political hangover when President Trump is sworn. A real bad banger. This too shall pass. Whether it be in 2017, or four more years is what remains to be seen. Fortunately, that is up to you, and whether your New Year's glass is half empty or half full.