Russia Reset

IF VIOLENCE BEGETS VIOLENCE, THEN MAYBE IT IS TIME FOR DETENTE ...

Watching the diametrically opposed way that Obama and Trump are handling Putin and Russia it reminds me of the old interrogation tactic referred to as "good cop, bad cop."  In such a tri-fold relationship the one thing all three parties know is that the two cops are working with a "bad guy." Even the bad guy knows he is a bad guy.

Let's assume Russia hacked the DNC.  Let's also assume Putin and also Trump know it, even though neither are admitting it.  In the scheme of "good cop, bad cop," the only one talking tough on the "bad guy" is the "bad cop."

The only difference in this case the "Bad Cop," Obama, is either unaware of what the "Good Cop," Trump, is up to, OR, Obama should get the Oscar for how he is playing his bad cop role.

Obama and Kerry, as well as virtually everyone in congress regardless of party recognize that Putin is a KGB "bad guy" who operates in ways that make American leaders and National security professionals, let alone most Americans and Westerners around the world, very uncomfortable.  So to think that Trump can not figure this out, even with the national security briefings that only the President receives is just absurd!  If you can not understand and accept that Trump knows darn well, and better than you or me, what Putin is about says more about your bias hatred for Trump than it does about Trump's intellectual capacity.

So do not be fooled by Trump's "sweet talk" -- He is not oblivious to Putin's darker side. Trump is doing something that I believe not enough people are giving him credit for.  He is very cleverly going about a complete reset of American and Russian relations. Something Bush II tried to do but failed at. 

Is Trump stupid. NO!  He is handling the situation brilliantly.  It is just that most of Washington and most of America don't yet understand Trump, let alone what he doing.  But rather that writing a much longer blog post trying to explain what I think Trump is up to, I'm going to simply tell you whose views about Russia I share and provide links to some articles in order to back up my view.

The individual to help make my case is one of the greatest foreign affairs geniuses in the past century, Henry Kissenger. Trump is doing something Henry Kissenger projected decades ago that we would need to do: Pivot sway from China and over to Russia.

Here are just three recent articles, but there are many more and Dr. Kissenger has been making his case for Russian relations for decades, we just have not listened.

Article Links:

• Kissinger, a longtime Putin confidant, sidles up to Trump
• Henry Kissinger has 'advised Donald Trump to accept' Crimea as part 
• Moscow would welcome Henry Kissinger’s expertise in Russia-US relations

What I find as fascinating as the case for why we should rebuild relations with Russia, is how Trump is going about developing rapport with Putin in order to do so.  I can not call what they have "trust," because guys like Putin and Trump are not going to truly trust one another for a long time or maybe ever.  They only need to both understand what the other is up to and be able to see it in their personal/National interests to play along with one another.

Putin and Trump both started with a mutual contempt for Obama and Hillary, and the desire to make their country great again. So it was pretty easy for Trump and Putin to get off to a great start with each man flattering the enormous ego of the other. But there are much deeper and significant forces and motives at play.

Trump is using the forces mounted against Putin, which in turn draw a counter force reaction by Putin, like a Jujitsu martial artist who manipulates his opponent's force against his him rather than confronting him with his own force.  Trump is leading Putin to where Trump wants Putin to go, which is also to place where Putin wants to be.  Let me try to explain as briefly as I can starting with listing each man's national objectives.

Putin wants three main motives/objectives:

1. Putin wants Russia to be respected on the world stage.
2. Putin wants to rebuild the Russian economy.
3. Putin wants to crush radical Islam and keep a tight lid on fundamentalist Muslim activity in his territory.

All three above are in America's interests too. Trump has three additional motives/objectives:

1. Trump wants Russia to play a supporting role in guarding against Iranian domination mitigating threats to Israel. (See * at the end.)
2. Trump wants Russia oil & gas interests to compete against OPEC in order to hold down prices and diminish Arab domination in both world politics.
3. Trump wants Russia to act as a counter force with China and help to bring pressure on North Korea.

Putin is seeing that Trump will help Putin to achieve his three objectives, and in the process, through the dance of foreign affairs, which appears on the surface like an iceberg, Trump is dancing his way to his American objectives.  So what appears like a Putin & Trump Bromance, is really much more sophisticated, artful and forceful than it appears!

This is what a "Russian Reset" looks like and most folks are failing to give either Trump or Putin credit for it.  But they will once both economies are booming again.  Because, as I explained in a previous blog post, "Prosperity is a Hate Spoiler."  All of this is why I went on the record before with Prediction #7 about improved Russian and American relations.

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is ending his Presidency having revived the Cold War and culminating with the largest expulsion of diplomats even during the cold war.  To which Putin responded brilliantly with a checkmate move inviting US Diplomats to a party.  The contrasts between the "Good Cop" and "Bad Cop" could not be any greater, and so will be the contrasts between their Presidencies!!

* During Hanukkah I have been focusing on Israel and what I envision to be the beginning of a new Era in the peace process. It may seem with a quick read of this article that I have gotten off that theme.  NOT SO! In fact, I could say this is the most important post of all related to that theme because it is my opinion that Trump's actions with regard to Russia will play a crucial part in this.  Russia, as well as the Ukraine, are going to be key to bringing about pressure on certain Middle Eastern factions in order for Israel to achieve its peace objectives in a new way with newly defined borders.  While it is less evident in main stream media, I am noticing very constructive actions between Israel and Russia which have the potential for tremendous economic, technological, cultural, and political working relations!  

Previous Posts
- Change Can Make Your Head Spin

- Bibi Grabs Victory From Defeat

Change Can Make Your Head Spin

Change can happen so fast that it will make your head spin.  And that is precisely what may happen after the Middle East Peace conference in France AND Trump's inauguration, both of which are taking place in the last half of January. 

In the twelfth month, which is the month of Adar, on its thirteenth day ... on the day that the enemies of the Jews were expected to prevail over them, it was turned about: the Jews prevailed over their adversaries. - Esther 9:1

If as I expect the 70-Nation Conference issues an unbalanced negative proclamation, like the United Nation's resolution days before Hanukkah, the stage will be set for an action by Israel to defeat its adversaries.

It is easy to draw analogies between today's unfolding events and the biblical stories of both Hanukkah and Purim. In Hanukkah Jews rose up to take back their biblical property.  In Purim, which is just around the calendar corner, Jews rose up to defeat our enemies who were plotting against us, and win back favor with the King.  Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu says already has the evidence to show President Trump who was plotting against Israel.

In my last paragraph there were two big clues for anyone else who loves the Story of Purim, from the Book of Ester.  Have a bit of fun speculating who best fits the roles of Mordecai, Hamman, Vashti, the good Queen Ester, and King Ahasuerus in the story unfolding in the Land of Israel today.  And why not have some fun with this idea .... Purim is a story of victory and celebration! So as the Story of Purim instructs, pour yourself a glass of wine!

On a more serious and ominous note, it needs to be pointed out that in the Story of Purim, while King Ahasuerus of Persia recognized that Haman was an evil doer, and gave his moral support to Mordecai, but he could not fight the battle for the Jews. The Jews still had to lift up their own swords. And the next adminstration will have to root out Haman. There was a price to pay for the victory we celebrate on Purim.

Events turned very fast in the Story of Purim.  And they can today as well.  As the artist Picabia said, "Our heads are round so our thoughts can change direction.

Photo of Picabia on display at MOMA in NYC.

Previous post - Bibi Grabs Victory From Defeat

Bibi Grabs Victory From the Jaws of Defeat

IMAGINATION AT WORK!  During this Hanukkah rememberance and celebration, in the spirit of of FREEDOM, I am inspired to imagine alternative ideas for a peaceful future. Below is pure speculation on that.

Before the UN Resolution condemning Israel passed, I wrote my post "One Love. One State. ISRAEL."  Post UN Resolution, thousands more have come forward and expressed similar views.  So now what happens?

Much depends on how things play out on January 15th at France's hosted 70-Nation "peace conference on the Middle East." There is at oxymoron.

Without knowing the outcome I'm going to speculate the road ahead for Israel.  Because that is what I do on my blog.  This is more my statement of my views than outright predictions. What will actually happen is any body's guess.   So here I go ...

1. Israel's Prime Minister, with the support of other key Israeli politicians, formerly announces its departure from the "Two State Solution" for the Palestinians.  Benjamin Netanyahu will make the case that ALL OF ISRAEL'S REASONABLE EFFORTS TO MAKE PEACE HAVE FAILED BECAUSE PEACE WAS NEVER THE GOAL OF HAMAS, FATAH, AND THE IRANIANS WHO ARE PULLING THE STRINGS. AND NOW, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS RECENT UN RESOLUTION HOPES FOR PEACE THROUGH A TWO STATE SOLUTION HAVE BEEN CRUSHED.

2. Bibi Netanyahu reaffirms ISRAEL'S desire for peace and declares that the BEST WAY FOR PEACE AND A BETTER LIFE FOR PALESTINIAN CHILDREN IS ONE STATE OF ISRAEL THAT INCLUDES LANDS OF WEST BANK AND GAZA. 

3. Israel's Prime Minister pledges to rebuild Gaza and create magnificent schools and hospitals in these areas and to make a better life for the Palestinians, with Israeli Jews, Arabs, and Christians living side-by-side. Bibi urges the world to support that vision and effort.

4. Israel's Prime Minister puts it all on the line and takes an even bolder stand and presents a choice to leaders and Nations around the world. Bibi says there is a choice to be made, by even Muslims too.  Either you stand with Israel, OR, you stand with Iran. In a speech to the world, Benjamin Netanyahu makes it obvious that both HISTORY AND THE FUTURE ARE ON THE SIDE OF ISRAEL, AND THAT JUSTICE AND MODERNITY ARE ON THE SIDE OF ISRAEL. AND NOW, BIBI SAYS IS THE TIME FOR LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD TO CHOOSE THERE SIDE!!  THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR PEACE OR CONFRONTATION!  BIBI PROCLAIMS THAT THROUGH DEEDS, NOT JUST WORDS, PEOPLE AND NATIONS WILL BE CALLED UPON TO GIVE THEIR SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL'S NEW VISION FOR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Bibi's speech on this that will be remembered in history as one of the greatest political speeches of all time and will seal Bibi's place in history.

5. Trump will be the first world leader to get on board, especially by moving the USA Embassy to Jerusalem.  Others will follow eventually with support for Israel, including Britain, and even Russia potentially, although I do not expect them to move their embassies.. 

6. The United Nations organization will be thrown into a state of chaos. Faced with a financial crisis after major de-funding, and seen as the body that laid the ground for destroying the hopes for a Two State Solution, the UNITED NATIONS WILL APPEAR IMPOTENT AND IRRELEVANT AT BEST.  This may change, and the body may have a role to play, but not as we have known these last 8 years while Obama was President and his failed foreign policies were in operation for the United States. 

7. IN OPEN DEFIANCE, IRAN CLAWS BACK ON ITS NUCLEAR AGREEMENT AND STARTS TO CHEAT.  Israel and Bibi will begin a new unstated public relations campaign which will see Bibi openly mocking Iran's leaders and clerics. Trump Tweets will fly! (Buy Twitter stock. Disclosure: I own Twitter shares. Lol.)  Israel's Bibi and the USA'S Trump will more actively than ever go about isolating Iran as they mock its leaders and clerics.  They will make trouble for Iran even internally, as moderate Iranians yearning for modernity will be emboldened to speak out against Iranian leadership and their country's role in terrorism.  Nonetheless, radical Islamic fundamentalist will be inspired to martyrdom.

8. Again, inspired by ISIS and Iranian clerics pronounced calls for Jihad, a string of lone-wolf terrorist attacks in Europe and elsewhere will do irreparable damage to Iran's reputation and the plight of most tragically unfortunate refugees. It is a terribly sad time for those among them who truly are desperate victims in search of a better and peaceful life in coexistence with other cultures!

9. Attacks by terrorist, combined with violent demonstrations by Sharia Law fundamentalist Muslims in France and Germany will also inspire an even larger and more rapid shift in European public opinion against Muslim residents and the refugees . Countries such as Italy and France will break away from the current concept and construct of the European Union.  COMING ELECTIONS AND REFERENDUMS IN EUROPE SPELL THE END FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE EURO. A NEW ORDER WILL EMERGE WHICH WILL BE DESIGNED MORE BY GREAT BRITAIN, AND SUPPORTED DIPLOMATICALLY BY THE USA. What role Germany plays is less clear in my imagination.

10. As perhaps the greatest example of "grabbing victory out of defeat," reminiscent of the "Six Day War," what began as a huge defeat for Israel in the United Nations and a giant win for Palestinian leader Abbas, Hamas, Iran, and even Obama, turns into the complete opposite. Winners are Israel and Trump, and ultimately the Palestinian people who have never truly had a life they deserve under the the Palestinian authorities.

In the final analysis, letting my imagination run by blogging is an excersise. Writing shapes thinking.  I have been accurate and wrong in the past, and more often premature.  Like an open diary with views and ideas, less so than personal experiences, my blog is a place which chronicles the process of intellectual maturity.  I may look back one day at this article and see how far I have come.  

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Previous Post - A New Era May Have Begun

WORLD WARNING

Think it can't get worse ... think again.  On January 15th, five days before Obama leaves office, there is a 70-nation French-hosted conference on Middle East peace.  If the world gangs up on Israel, involving a US-French conspired anti-Israel Declarative motion, events may be set in motion which would unleash epic violence and the use of catastrophic weapons.

It would be beyond tragic if all the Nations, including the USA faced off against Israel!  Then a spring will erupt in Jerusalam and flow to the seas.

"And Lot lifted up his eyes, and beheld all the plain of the Jordan, that it was well watered every where, before the LORD destroyed Sodom and Gomorrah, like the garden of the LORD, like the land of Egypt, as thou goest unto Zoar." Genesis 13:10

Previous post - It Begins

It Begins

It begins ... a series a tectonic shifts in Israel and USA foreign policies, and dealings with the United Nations and the Palestinians.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal praised a UN Security Council resolution critical of Israeli settlements on Sunday night, but clarified “that [it] is not enough . . . We want Jerusalem,” And Hamas and Iran expects the world to stand with  them.

I stand with Israel!  You??  As Trump Tweeted, "after January 20th, things will be different."

Today, Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman warned Monday that France's upcoming peace conference scheduled for January 15 would be "a modern day Dreyfus trial."  In response to Paris's behavior toward Israel, Defense Minister Liberman told Jews to leave France and immigrate to Israel. "This is the time to tell French Jews: France is not your country or your land and it's time to leave," he said. He added,  "If you want to remain Jewish and want your kids and grandchildren to remain Jewish, leave France and come to Israel ..."

Speaking back in January 2016, to memorialize 17 Jewish victims after a terrible shooting in Paris, and a wave of Islamist violence during which gunmen and suicide bombers unleashed mayhem in Paris, killing 130, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, said the thought of Jews leaving France because they no longer feel it is their home was “an unbearable idea.” France without its Jewish community was “not France,” Valls famously stated.

The Obama Administration's history of pathetically bad results in the Middle East has repeatidly been marked by unintended consequence.  His legacy culminates with an unprecedented historic betrayal of Israel that will very possibly mark the historic turning point in Israel's position on the "Two State solution."

If Liberman's call for French Jews is answered, Prime Minister Valls "unbearable" vision may have foreshadowed changes in Europe that have actually accelerated due to Obama's failed policies, climaxing with passage of the UN Security Council Resolution on the lead into Hanukkah and Christmas.

And so it begins ... A New Era.

Next post - World Warning

A New Era May Have Begun

This Christmas and Hanukkah may mark a giant moment in world history.  It may both test and prove the profound importance of the relationship of Christians and Jews, and America's Judea Christian foundation!

From the Jerusalem Post, "Obama’s obsession with the settlements, seen in bookend actions at the beginning and end of his term, made negotiating a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue more difficult, not easier."  To be clear, Obama, Biden, and Kerry have stabbed America's number one ally and the only democracy in the Middle East in the back.

Israel is an amazing Nation, and a light unto the world, and it WILL RISE ABOVE the USA's historic departure from long standing support for Israel by allowing the horrendous UN body to pass the recent anti-Israel Resolution. And as Israel rises, Obama's legacy will sink and be marked with everlasting shame.  The Obama Administration's despicable actions, and the obscene resolution by the UN will have the OPPOSITE effect, as Israel withdraws support for both the corrupt United Nations and efforts to achieve peace through bi-lateral negotiations. The UN is not fooling anyone who loves Israel, nor the vast majority of Americans who KNOW IT IS THE DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL, NOT PEACE WITH IT, that so many sadly many seek.

Public opinion may greatly shift and Israeli leaders may reasonably conclude that a TWO-STATE SOLUTION IS UNACHIEVABLE. This would mark the beginning of a new Era, as Israel alters its entire strategy and objective concerning the West Bank and Gaza. I don't like to use this analogy, but for overly convenient purposes, I will.  Like Russia, which annexed Crimea, I believe there is a possibility that Israel will decide to annex the West Bank and Gaza. And when they do they will clamp down on Hammas and declare any organizations which operate for the purpose of establishing a Palestinian State on Israeli lands, as newly defined, to be illegal.

The streets will be bloody. Christians will read this as the "End of Days." Orthodox Jews and even Liberal Jews may foretell the "coming of the Messiah."  I won't go so far as to call Obama Satin, but I am sure some will, and many more will be looking around to identify him. Will some point to Trump?  No doubt there will be some who see it that way. G-D ONLY KNOWS!  (How's that for a pun, huh?)  I can say with confidence that there will be many applauding Trump, and just as many daming Obama in Israel.

But this does NOT HAVE TO BE APOCALYPTIC. About 21% of Israel's population is Arab, and about 2% is Christian. And one could make the case that they lead as good or better lives in Israel than they could elsewhere in most Middle East countries. Life is miserable for Palestinians in areas run by Fatah, formerly the Palestinian Liberation Movement, and by the US declared terrorist organization Hamas which is directly supported by Iran. There is virtually no hope for peace with children in the West Bank and Gaza being taught from birth to hate Jews and pray for the destruction of Israel. This would not stop with a Two-State solution. The best hope for peace may be the opposite.  ONE LOVE. ONE STATE. ISRAEL.

Maybe Trump's Nuclear Tweet Is A Warning We Needed

Trump's nuke tweet is alarming and frightening.  He needs to clarify and possibly roll back impressions. Besides, it seems stupid to telegraph any intention in this regard since it encourages our enemies to act as well.  I don't get what he was thinking.

Maybe he was stupid like a fox. I have to wonder if his tweet was more strategic than it seems on the surface. There will be ENORMOUS SCRUTINY of this Tweet. I suspect Trump's tweet was partly or even largely the results of a test a a day ago of satellite weapons by the Russians.

By the same token, our nuclear readiness and systems are extremely antiquated. They've been neglected for over a decade. We are less safe because we have let our nuclear deterent degrade. That being the case and I believe it is, Trump's tweet will trigger study, debate and discussion about extremely important actions that need to happen.

I still question weather broadcasting our intentions serves the world, let alone the USA well because of how it charges other nuclear powers to step up their systems. One good thing that could come from that, however, is a discussion about a new treaty with the Russians and hopefully the Chinese about ways we can work together to make our mutual systems safer for all parties so that an apocalyptic or horiiffic  accident can be avoided.

Either way, Trump's tweet may be the single most important tweet in history!!