TRUMP BEING TRUMP. CHINA BEING CHINA.

Brinkmanship is a classic negotiating tactic, one that Trump is famous for. 

In order for Trump's threat of tariffs to be effective, with the Chinese or others, he must be credible for following through. Otherwise it is perceived as a bluff and he loses in the negotiations and his reputation suffers.

A prime example of a brinkmanship failure is Obama and his infamous failure to enforce the "Red Line" in Syria. Contrast that to Trump who reversed that failure at the very start of his Presidency.  By launching Tomahawk Missiles against Syria without hesitation after another poisonous gas attack, Trump immediately earned "street cred." 

Trump leveraged his negotiating credibility and the tactic of brinkmanship in negotiating the USMCA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. He did the same with NATO and N. Korea. Those were all important in their own right. But they were also a setup for his next and tougher target, CHINA.  And ultimately, for what's to come with the Israel and the so called "deal of the century."

The Chinese are tremendous negotiators.  They turn brinkmanship into a game of chicken. By raising the stakes, as they typically do, they scare their opponents into backing down. It has worked for them time and again.  But Trump is a different negotiator and leader than the Chinese have had to deal with before. He is predictably unpredictable - which drives them crazy.  By they same token, I suspect they respect Trump the way they respect Sun Tzu (Art of War.)

The China trade negotiations are extremely significant and important. The USA has to protect it's intellectual property and cyber security.  The outcome of these negotiations will have profound impacts on both of our economies and the world. The USA can not afford to fail. Trump knows that. He has spoken passionately about this for decades, long before he ran for President.  He is not going to let America lose.

I don't know if my thoughts fall into the category of sanguine.  I think of my view as pragmatic. Both the USA and China need one another - we both need a deal.  Which one needs the other more is debatable - and it is akin to chasing one's tail. Or arguing who would win a nuclear war based, based on the number of missiles.  

Some say time is on China's side.  And, the fact that Xi doesn't need to win an election let's them wait us out.  There's so many arguments, pro & con, on behalf of who wins a tariff war.  But I don't believe China flew over this time to save face.  They flew over because they want to save the deal.  They are testing the boundaries of the deal.  Trump said we're in "no rush to make a deal."  That was the smartest thing he could have said.  The tariffs hurt everyone .... but once a USA a manufacturer moves sourcing out of China, Xi knows it is hard to get it to go back.  

HAMAS ACTS OUT OF DYING DESPERATION

AT A TIME WHEN MANY ARE POISED FOR A BOLD NEW APPROACH TO PEACE IN ISRAEL, HAMAS IS ACTING OUT OF DYING DESPERATION.

Hamas wanted to get in some last licks on the cusp of Ramadan.  They also tried to steel the focus away from a huge Israeli public relations success -- Euro Vision coming up in Israel in just days.

Hamas's missile attacks this weekend against Israeli's are like distress flares.  They are a painful sign that Hamas senses their time is running out - their days are numbered.

The President's Senior Advisor Jared Kushner is expected to announce a new peace plan very soon.  Kushner has been working behind the scenes for over a year.

Hamas has read the writing on the Western Wall, pardon the pun, and they know that the imminent new peace plan spells their demise. 

Tangentially, Jews around the world are counting the Omer, the days until Revelation. Shavuot, the Jewish holiday which celebrates receiving the Torah at Mount Sinai, is in our sights since Passover.  And so is a hopeful new day for the Palestinians and Israelis.

It is no coincidence that Kushner has been privately going around to Arab countries, laying the ground work.  In my opinion, Kushner is collecting "gold & silver" to build a better future in Israel for both the Palestinians and the Israelis. There are practical physical things going on to prepare for a miracle - Peace.

I HAVE HIGH HOPES . . .

I look forward to the announcement of a bold new plan with a very different and exciting approach.  I expect Kushner's plan to have significant practical elements which create great opportunities for prosperity, a better quality of life and a fresh start.

The time is right and the stage is set for a brilliant new paradigm that finally alters the way we perceive the future for the two sides and how the Palestinians and Israelis can coexist and thrive together. 

If the plan is as promising as I hope it will be for the Palestinians especially, it will cut the legs right out from underneath Hamas, and force Fatah's hand.

I believe in the court of world public opinion, and more importantly with the Palestinians, Hamas is about to lose any remaining leadership credibility and expose itself by how it responds to the new peace plan.  Once and FOR ALL Hamas's words and actions will lay bare how corrupt, destructive, hateful and lying their organization is.

The choice that the Palestinian people will have to make, between new leadership with a fresh new vision, verses the failed Hamas and Fatah leadership, will be the ultimate test of the Palestinians. 

What could be truly amazing is the reaction to the new plan by Israel's Middle Eastern neighbors, particularly Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.  I would not be surprised for them to privately, if not publicly, support Kushner's bold plan in words and deeds.

I stand with Israel, but we all would be glad to see the Palestinian people living happy, peaceful and productive lives in harmony with the Israeli people. That is the future they must choose!

TIME WILL TELL AND ITS TIME! NISSAN HAS ARRIVED -- LET'S ALL HOPE/PRAY FOR A MIRACLE.

MY PREDICTION OF POSSIBLE PLAN:
First a preface - With the Israeli election decided and Netanyahu serving another, and historic term, Bibi can take decisive actions to deal with the Palestinians that were not likely prior to the election.

In addition, with the Mueller investigation closed and no collusion found, let alone with the tables turning on the accuser's after Barr's accusations of spying, Trump is in the strongest position he has been in politically since being elected, even after losing the House.

The stage is set for Netanyahu and Trump to announce the long promised and highly anticipated Trump/Kushner Peace plan.

The big question is what will they be offering the Palestinians in exchange for peace.  Most of the attention has been on whether the offer of a two-state solution is still on the table.  I predict the centerpeace of the plan that Kushner has devised is a NEW ELECTION.  I'll explain.

SEVEN STEPS TO A BRIGHTER FUTURE FOR PALESTINIANS AND ISRAELIS:

I believe the deal will contain the following elements:

1. Israeli's IDF will re-enter Gaza in order to ensure a process whereby a fair election can be conducted by the Palestinians.

2. Very shortly a Palestinian opposition party and candidates will emerge to compete against Hamas and Fatah.  Israeli IDF forces will provide them protection against Hamas leaders who otherwise would "eliminate" them.

3. Such opposition candidates will have the backing of several Arab countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and possibly Jordan.  I believe Kushner has been working on such arrangements over the last two years and the very recent visit of Egypt's President to meet privately with Trump was to finalize details for the Plan.

4. The USA and other Western allies, as well as perhaps even Russia, will support the new Palestinian party candidates.

5. Thanks to prior commitments of support from Arab countries and the USA*, the new leader will be able to make an incredibly rich and wonderful offer to the Palestinians. (E.g. new schools, new hospitals, jobs, greater freedom to move about, and peacefully coexistence within Israel.)

* The USA halted hundreds of millions in support for the U.N. and Abbas.  That money can be redirected to the new party and projects to help Palestinians if they win the election.

6. I do not have a strong sense of whether they will be offering actual Statehood, but I do believe the Palestinians will have greater freedom of governance.

7. In the spirit of the Jubilee year, which Jews have not celebrated since the destruction of the Temple and the diaspora which scattered the 12 Tribes of Israel, I have one more possible element.  An element of Biblical dimensions.  What about a provision in the plan that allows any Palestinian who can trace their family ancestry back to ownership of a specific plot of land in Israel, being given the right to apply to purchase back their ancestral land.  Perhaps a fund could be set up with millions donated by Arab countries, that would support such a plan.

Again, the point in all this is that the CENTERPIECE of the peace plan is an ELECTION.  The Palestinians will be given the opportunity to chose their fate.

In order for there to be a fair election process in Gaza, in which true opposition of Hamas can rise up, the Israeli IDF must move into Gaza and seize control.

Hamas just gave the Israeli Army the reason it needed with this weekend's massive rocket attacks.  By virtue of Hamas's dying act of desperation they have set in motion the next steps that will be their demise.

Hamas will run on it's record, which as we all know promises only greater pain and misery.  Or the Palestinians can make the only sensible choice - The NEW Plan.  And when the Palestinians choose the new party they are not only choosing a bright future, they will also be rejecting IRAN!!

In the process, the world will have no choice but to accept the United States and Israel's newest ally - the new Palestinian government!

Such a peace plan could be even greater than the "deal of the century" Trump would love to land. It would be worthy of higher praise than the cheapened Nobel Peace Prize.  This could be what Jews and Christians have waited thousands of years for.  With the annexation of the Golan and the West Bank, ALL of the Kingdom of Israel is restored. Is it time to take a roll call for the Ten Lost Tribes?

A TAKE AWAY FROM POWAY.

WHAT IS IT WITH THE JEWS? A TAKE AWAY FROM POWAY.

People will strike out to protect what they think is their's - be it property, their culture or their Nation.

Jews are the perpetual wanders in history. As such, we have always been perceived by many to be the stranger - the outsider. 

As Jews succeeded in anyplace they've gone, Nationalists in those places sometimes perceived that the Jews were robbing them --  the radical Nationalist, such as the White Supremacist believe that the wealth the Jews achieved was stolen from them.  And if times get bad in that place, or even for just one radical Nationalist, they get jealous and angry. 

The dynamic I am trying to describe is a formula for violent reprisals. Sometimes those take the shape of pograms. Sometimes they are solo violent outbursts. In the extreme case of the Nazi's, it was much worse. And in the case of the Nazi's, it started with taking the homes, businesses and property of the Jews. What ended with the "final solution," known as the Holocaust, started as the repossession of wealth.

Jews are often seen as strangers - a people whose roots don't belong wherever they are.  Throughout history, the Stranger has often been seen as a risk or threat.  We instinctively think and teach "stranger danger." 

Jews are taught to accept the stranger, because "we were once strangers." It is a concept that is taught to us, embedded in us. It is one of the primary themes of Passover.  So it is truly ironic that the last shooting took place on Passover.

Jews have also learned as a culture to assimilate. Jews throughout history have learned to accept the laws of the land wherever they may be and to be good neighbors. Jews instinctively contribute to society. This is a pattern Jews have learned to follow throughout history, in part as a survival strategy.

But despite our best efforts, the instincts of radical Nationalism in the form of anti-Semitism keeps rearing it's ugly head. Which is why Jews are not unfamiliar with having to move on.  As we did when we were expelled from England and again from Spain. A famous play was made about this theme - Fiddler On The Roof. When I grew up, every Jewish parent took their child to see Fiddler.  Not just as entertainment!  It was an important education because you never could be certain it wouldn't happen again, AND because we NEVER wanted it to happen again.

No matter how hard we try or well we do, for some, like the White Supremacists or the neo-Nazi, we will always be the stranger who is robbing them of their property, their culture and their Nation.  And when they become too desperate and deranged, egged on by others in their own dark world, they sometimes play the part, in their sick mind, of the hero warrior. And they attack US.

And by "us," I mean all of us.  Because it doesn't stop with the Jews. It just starts with the Jews. To the radical Nationalist, none of us belong - not the Hispanic, or African American, or the Asian, or the Arab, or anyone but them - their fellow White Supremacists.  But the irony is that that sick thinking is also the obvious reason the White Supremacists can never win. 

White Supremacist can't take back their Nation because there would be no nation if they did!  The irony is that the Nation which White Supremacists think is theirs, NEVER existed. America is a Nation of immigrants. We are a Land of strangers.  (With one obvious exception.) It is partly because America is a Nation of Immigrants, that is why the Jews felt so at home in America. 

The truth of the matter is that it is the White Supremacists that don't belong.  They are actually the ones with the least right to call America their Nation.  George Washington and the Founders vision was the antithesis of the beliefs that White Supremacists hold. In effect, White Supremacists are the least American of any of us, even the illegal alien who is desperate to make America their new home. And certainly the Jews who were worshipping at Poway Chabad on that fateful Passover day.

ANYONE CAN READ PROPHECY.

ANYONE CAN DO IT.

Anyone can read the Bible or the Prophets. Anyone can see analogies between scripture and modern times.  I am just anyone.

Nahum was one of the 12 Prophets. He lived and prophesied after Jonah, another of the 12. Nahum foresaw the tremendous fall of Nineveh and the torturous Assyrians.

In The Story of Jonah, which proceeds the prophecy of Nahum, Jonah was loath to rescue the Assyrian people of Nineveh by warning them of G-d's proclaimed judgment and their impending doom for their evil ways. Jonah feared that G-d would forgive the Assyrians; and later they would return to their true evil ways, and ravage Israel. They ultimately did.

I propose an analogy to their prophecies and modern Washington DC.  First, here are the connections to the verses below from the Book of Nahum.

Nineveh is what Trump calls the Washington DC swamp.  Trump is the "horseman" and Hillary Clinton is the "harlot." The "families" are the powerful Clinton political dynasty and the Obama and Deep State conspirators. They will all be "slain" and "stumbling over their bodies" as Nahum prophesied.

Here are the versus from Chapter III of the Prophecy of Nahum to which I am referring: 

"1 Woe to the city of blood; it is all lies, full of robbery; the prey departs not.

2 The sound of the scourge..and the sound of the noise of the wheels and the galloping horses and the bounding chariots.

3 The horseman raises himself and the blade of the sword and the burnished spear and the many slain-yea, the heaps of corpses. There is no end to the bodies, and they shall stumble over their bodies.

4 Because of the many harlotries of the harlot, charming and enchanting, who delivers nations with her harlotries, and families with her enchantments.

5 Behold! I am against you, says the Lord of Hosts, and I will uncover your skirts upon your face-and I will show the nations your nakedness, and the kingdoms your shame.

6 And I will cast detestable things upon you and make you vile, and I will make you like dung.

7 And it shall come to pass that whoever sees you shall wander away from you, and he shall say, "Nineveh has been plundered." Who will console her? Whence shall I seek comforters for you?"

The question is why? Even if one thought my analogy was plausible, let alone sane, it raises critical questions; Why would G-d raze the Clinton's and the Deep State? Is G-d trying to teach the Left a lesson?  Is G-d a deplorable? LOL, that's absurd.  Is G-d doing it for America's sake?

Perhaps G-d is doing it for America's sake because America is for Israel's sake.

Book of Nahum, Chapter II, V3.
"For the Lord has restored the pride of Jacob as the pride of Israel, for the emptiers have emptied them out and destroyed their branches."

There is a larger context to this.  That context is both scriptural and historical.  Here is that as succinctly as I can make it.

The conquerors of ancient Israel, including the Assyrians, drove the Twelve Tribes of the out of Israel. A long tempest scattered the Jews around the word.  Many found harbor in Europe, but the storm came ashore and reached deep inland: Sending Jews to new and old homes. Half of them went to their eternal home.

A good sum found safe harbor and made a home in America. For those Jews, it may have seemed as though our Exodus was over; we had finally found Liberty; and the land flowed with the milk & honey which prosperity brings.

Before the Messiah comes, the 12 Tribes will return and The Temple will re-appear.  Israel will be united.  Israel's and the Jewish people's greatest strength is found in Unity with one another and G-d's Torah.

The Land (Eretz) Israel, Northern and Southern Israel, Samaria, Judea, Jerusalem and all of Israel may be about to be unified for the first time since the Kingdom of David.  Even the Golan, which was once home to the biblical city of “Golan in Bashan,” (Deuteronomy 4:43, Joshua 21:27), an area that was assigned to the tribe of Manasseh (Joshua 13:29-31), has been united with the Land, returned after a dispute with Syria that is as old as the days of the Maccabees.

Israel's unification is coming just as anti-Semitism, as recently the Last Day of Passover this year, is driving the diaspora of Jews home - to Israel.

I know it seems preposterous that a man with such character flaws as Trump could be playing a role, however, even the Great King David sinned and possessed major flaws.  But G-d worked through David despite his imperfections.  Is America not a great Nation too?

America made a modern Israel possible. And America protected the Jews for nearly 300 years and Israel for 70 years.  But G-d isn't done. Israel is not unified. The Tribes are still coming home.

Evil forces conspired to strengthen Israel's enemy Iran. And when Trump stepped forward to challenge Israel's giant enemy, evil forces conspired to defeat Trump.

Like David, Trump stood up to fight the great and powerful Goliath, against seemingly insurmountable odds.

I believe G-d is blessing and protecting  Trump because Trump is blessing Israel. And G-d is cursing those who cursed Israel.

Iran, Obama and many in the United Nations cursed Israel. But those evil forces failed to calculate the Covenant G-d made with Israel. Those evil forces are no match for the strength of G-d's shield.  The Swamp is recieving judgment.

Nineveh was a great City; 3 days walk across. Such is the swamp of Washington D.C.  The Assyrians were powerful, ruthless and lustful. Such are the Clinton's.

Nineveh did fall.  And if my analogy holds, so will those evil forces who sought to overthrow the man who blessed Israel.

TRUMP IS FIXING OBAMA.

P.S. There is a connection between this post and the message in my post about an experience this Passover.

IDENTITY IS ONE THING. UNITY IS ANOTHER

IDENTITY IS ONE THING. UNITY IS ANOTHER.

There is a lot of talk about how people identify themselves. People identify in the context of gender, on the political spectrum, racially, by nationality, culturally, and religiously,

An interesting thing about Jews is that when we speak of our Jewish identity, we can be speaking of identity in religious terms, cultural terms, and even in terms of our nationality. In terms of nationality, while we may be referring to whether we are of Ashkenazi or Sephardic decent we recognize that Jews also have an historical connection to Eretz (the Land of) Israel before the Diaspora. Even the question of where we fall on the political spectrum has some correlation to whether we identify with Orthodox or more Liberal Reform Judaism.

The complex interpretation of what being Jewish means is perhaps why some say "if you ask 5 Jews you'll get 17 opinions."

But there is one major thing all Jews can and should agree on. It is that our strength comes from UNITY, and our "revolutionary" message of ONE G-d. One timeless, spaceless and supremely empathetic G-d.

At this time of year when we retell the Story of the Exodus as we count the Omer, the number of days from the Passover until we received the Ten Commandments, marked by the holiday of Shavuot, it was ENOUGH to be UNITED at the base of Mount Sinai. DAYENU.

Non-religious secular Jews and religious Jews alike, identify as Jews. And often times, those who identify as Jews find that "many of their best friends are Jews." But with this observation comes two important questions.

Is it enough to identify as Jewish and to have Jewish friends, to maintain the Jewish people? And if we fail to maintain the Jewish people what is there to identify with? Look, I like a good bagel smear as much as anyone . . . but can we survive on bagels alone?

In my opinion, to maintain the Jewish people we must also maintain the UNITY of the greater Jewish community - in our county, in our country, and around the world, in connection with Eretz Israel!

Identity is one thing. Unity is another. Unity sustains the Jewish people.

That is why I am active in and support the Jewish Federation of Dutchess County.

A PRIVATE PASSOVER CONFESSION

A PRIVATE CONFESSION

Somebody came up to me privately at a Seder this Passover and confessed to me she was genuinely scared about the way our country was treating President Trump and all the lies in the media.

This person who called me to the side at the Seder had been forwarded something I wrote by a mutual friend who they didn't reveal.  So they likely knew I would empathize with and validate their concerns.  But they seemed to be looking for more - and I thought they were looking for me to offer something to relieve their concerns.

I can appreciate her point of view. Many folks on the Right have similar concerns.  It is nearly impossible to avoid the Left's relentless harassment of Trump on CNN, MSN, CBS, ABC, NBC. TIME, NY TIMES, HUFFINGTON POST, POLITICO, and by Hollywood. They have spent 3 years convincing the public that Trump colluded with Russia, among other lies.

If you're Conservative you must be concerned with Conservative views being censored on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and on college campuses.

If you are a Republican or a conservative it is hard not to be distressed by the uber Left policy plans put forth by the Left.

Those on the Left don't tend to understand the Right's positions well. It is certainly not explained on mainstream media. And since many folks on the Left automatically dismiss Conservative organizations like the Daily Wire, Judicial Watch and the ACLJ, they mostly know the Right's position from the perspective of the Left's criticisms.

It's an odd thing about the Left.  It's like they feel victimized by Trump. Many seem to still carry the pain of losing the election.  Yet, they have no sense of what it is like to support the President.  There is NO empathy for Trump supporter - only resentment and ridicule.  You can't even where a "MAGA Hat" without legitimate fear of some form of reprisal.

Most Liberal Democrats have no appreciation for the truth bomb that is going to hit them - Which is that the Hillary Email Scandal and the Russian Collusion Hoax are combined to be the biggest crimes of treason against America since the first known conspiracy to overthrow the American cause for nationhood in 1776.

Thankfully that first conspiracy against a future President and the American cause was exposed in June 1776, just before the British troops waiting in the Harbor off Manhattan landed. The first conspiracy was exposed by John Jay, Philip Livingston and the others who conducted the first major counterintelligence effort known as the Culper Spy Ring.  They saved the Revolution and America right BEFORE the Declaration of Independence was signed.

I find fascinating that that original effort to thwart the future of a great President was also led by ranking NYS politicians.

What is also fascinating is George Washington's take on his Continental Army's situation just before the British troops landed in New York.  Washington wrote to his brother and John Adam's just before that fateful moment. He observed the enormous and overwhelmingly odds AGAINST his Continental army.  Washington's army was terribly "outgunned, outmanned and out planned," to quote a line from the play Hamilton.

AS DISCONCERTING AS THE SITUATION IS TODAY I HAVE FAITH IT WILL WORK OUT.

Here is what is most fascinating to me.  Washington said in his letters to his brother and John Adams that he had faith in the Divine and believed that Providence would turn the tables against British. He was right.  And there was Alexander Hamilton of course.

I have a similar view about the outgunned and outmanned Conservative cause today.  I too have faith in the sacred quality of America and I also believe the Divine will see us through this period.  Otherwise, like my friend who approached me at Passover I confess that I would be scared too.

FAST FORWARD 

EPILOGUE TO PRIOR POST

In Victor Hugo's 1830 classic book, a.k.a. The Hunchback of Notre Dame, Hugo regarded its architects as poets who had liberated man's spirit.

Much of that spirit, and those generations of religiosity, have passed.  The flames released into smoke the spirit that the architects and artisans captured in the wooden roof and spires of Notre Dame.

But there is still a frame and the magnificent Rose Window remaining. Just as encouraging is the outpouring of support to rebuild Notre Dame. 

Much will be asked, said and written about the symbolism and meaning of Notre Dame in the context of an essentially Godless France. 

In the age of multiculturalism, the burning collapse of Notre Dame is the catalyst for a great soul searching process in Europe. It seems almost as though G-d is testing Europe.  Fascinating to watch whether and what rises from the ashes of Notre Dame.

A building, even Notre Dame can be restored.  Resorting Christianity is a greater challenge. Can the former be restored without the later? I suppose it can.  France would have back the architectural tourist attraction and symbolism of an age that has passed.  But will it be living Cathedral or a museum?  Or will Christianity be reborn somehow to repair the damaged hearts caused by so much scandal in the Catholic Church? 

Perhaps in some ironic way, the burning of Notre Dame was needed to awaken Europe.  It all remains to be seen. And we may all be long dead before these questions are answered.