Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trump Has Gone Radio Silent

In telecommunications, radio silence or Emissions Control (EMCON) is a status in which all fixed or mobile radio stations in an area are asked to stop transmitting for safety or security reasons.

For as long as he campaigned, Trump was outspoken about the intention to move our Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. In interviews this past week, Trump has gone "radio silent" on questions about the moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem - Saying "I don't want to talk about it," Some read that as "backing off."  I say it is "radio silence."

Trump has long been a critic of telling the enemy our plans including timing in advance, because he said we were losing key military advantages.

Iran has stated that moving our Embassy would be a "declaration of war."  Words taken very seriously by Bibi and Trump.  Israel, as well as Trump and Mattis must prepare for that very reaction. When the USA and Israel announce the Embassy move in coming months, and the "gates of hell open," Iran will find itself in those fires.

It will happen very fast. Israel's intentions will be very targeted and limited, only for purposes of destroying or irreparably damage Iran's nuclear and ballistic capability.  Other than some special forces to set detonations, Israel will have very few ground troops in Iran. After taking out Iran's power grid with magnetic pulses, the attacks will come from the air.

In the process Israel will take out substantial air defense, radar and other military resources of Iran. Once they have done so, Israel will fall back and wait for and defend against any Iranian assault.

Israel may use this same timing to do serious damage to Hamas leaderhip in Gaza, snd Hezbollsh in Lebanon. This will likely require Israel to troops in harms way.  Something Israel is very reluctant to do.

In the meantime, Israel de-clawed Syria with a pre-emptive strike on the military assets that posed it any real threat. I'm convinced that Saudi Arabia stays out of the conflict and even takes satisfaction in what it is about to happen to Iran, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Same with Egypt.

I expect Russia is going to stand down, as Trump and Putin will have worked out an arrangement by the time action happens. What happens to Assad in the longer run remains to be seen, but Syria will not be targeted in upcoming Israeli offensive actions. But Russia will continue to hammer away ISIS, and the USA will be much more engaged with Russia in doing so.

I expect to see the USA declare heavily guarded safe zones for civilians in Iraq and Syria. Those will be eventually turned over to UN peacekeeping forces after things settle back down and after the UN is shaken up by defunding.  That transition is a ways down the road, but it won't hold up any of the actions I'm speaking of.

Once Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile threat has been blown up, ISIS is crushed, and safe zones have been established, Trump will lift some of the immigration bans Trump recently established.

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Radical Departure from Radical Islam