Sunday, February 5, 2017

Step Back

If you think the world has gone mad, and all the anti Trump rallies and outrage is loud now, I'm afraid we have only seen the beginning.  My heart tells me it does not end well at all.  We need to step back and tone down the rhetoric, and the Trump hate.  All the fear and hate regarding Trump and the current administration can lead to level of violence and anarchy that several generations in America have not experienced in their life time.

The anger in the bellies of Americans is fermenting. Lines are drawn, sides chosen. The kindling wood is stacked in people's attitudes. And the gasoline of emotion is soaking the pile.  The whole country, the whole world is dangerously conditioned to explode.  A spark could do it.  But a detonating cap surely would.

The catalyst for the cataclysm that I speak of won't be a supreme court justice confirmation.  It won't be a wall or fence.  It won't be another regulation discarded, or even the repeal of Obamacare.  It won't be another absurd and embarrassing remark by Trump or pictures of his son with a magnificent African animal slaughtered for his trophy room. No, all those things are the logs on the Left's bonfire pile.

The Right has a point of explosion too.  But you won't see it until it is too late.  The Right, is the "silent" movement that changed the country's course.  They won't rise up in rowdy displays when banks start to lend. They won't march when new factories open and wages rises. They won't ever desecrate a flag, or shutdown free speech, and destroy property because their taxes were lowered, or raised, or for most any reason. The Right will keep the peace until the peace is broken. The Right's response won't be highly visible until there is anarchy.  The Right will apply law to lawless, even if that law is Marshall Law.

Bring it on, did you say?  Please do not wish for this!  This would be the worst way to work out our differences.  Violence nearly always begets violence. No body is spared. And the enemy is not some stranger or foreign aggressor. The "enemy," Left or Right, is our American family. These are your neighbors, your co-workers, your friends, your church or temple members, even your family! Who could be happy to see either side bloodied?!  And, we all love the children.

We need to step back. We need to imagine where THIS leads. Neither the Left or the Right wants to live in the other's America. And we don't!  We live in OUR America. And America is stronger and better because of the other, not in spite of the other. We fought our wars together, with one devastating exception.  We built our highways together and went to the moon together.

Now, not latter, before the detonating cap is detonated, we need to come together. I tell you, I see the cap and have labeled it before.  I believe the timer is set, and it is about to be put in place. Please do not put this decision off. Please do not assume we have many tomorrows left or that it is OK to test the other side a little while longer. Please do not assume that you can put things back together or that the other side will give in, or that you will be victorious.

Make the decision to be courageous.  Go high, go first. Hold out your hand. Say, lets talk. See the good in the other!  Be open to the possibilty of their validity!  It doesn't make you weak.  It takes courage to hold out an olive branch. It is hard to step forward and away from your center, your base, where you have drawn your strength from.  But there is another place to draw all the strength and courage you need.





Saturday, February 4, 2017

NO WONDER THERE IS CONFUSION


There are many reasons folks travel to and from America!  A) tourism, b) business, c) temporary work, d) visiting family, e) for a medical procedure, f) to immigrate, g) asylum , h) military, i) diplomatic, j) criminal, and k) other basic purposes.

It is our government's obligation to maintain control of the entire realm of issues associated with ensuring America's safety with regard to everyone crossing our borders and entering our country.  The government carries the awesome burden of addressing a myriad of factors. 1) accounting for who, how many, where.  2) legalities - following proper procedure and permission. 3) illegalities - foods or items that are banned such as drugs, weapons, plants or species. 4) societal risks - communicable diseases, terrorist intentions, smuggling, sex trafficking, etc.

Then there are the different logistics and challenges associated with each means of entry:
- air (private, commercial)
- highway
- boat (cruise ship, freight ship, private vessel, etc.)
- by foot

It is daunting to imagine the complexities of managing all this when you consider the possible combinations of the lettered scenarios in the top list with the numbered obligations in my middle list, and the bullet list of entries.

In addition, the risk factors differ, change, and fluctuate depending on: Country, geopolitical events such as wars and uprisings, and economic conditions.   Even weather, natural disasters, and time of year can effect the flow of travel, reasons for travel, and the makeup of travelers.

Last but not least is the matter of the government's capacity to manage all of this.  They have got workforce factors such as staffing levels, documentation and tracking requirements, training, quality and productivity, background checks, use of technology, etc.

What's more you have got questions such as our political and domestic agenda. For example the desires of our politicians an what's best from a social, demographic, or economic perspective for our nation. The answers differ between our Nation as a whole and between particular regions. They even differ in terms of the impact to certain business sectors and specific types of companies.

NOW CONSIDER THIS!!!

Our President has made it abundantly obvious that he going to make major changes in how he is going to deal with treats from Iran and radical Islam. He has made it abundantly obvious that he is going change our diplomatic approach with Israel, China, Russia, Syria, Mexico, the European Union, and others on matters of trade, security, and with regard to various tensions, problems, and crisis that we have in the world.

CHANGES I JUST REFERRED TO CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON THE RISK FACTORS!

Plus the President needs time to meet and/or speak to dozens of leaders from these countries one-on-one to develop rapport, let alone to show respect.

What's more, the President and our government need to transition from Obama's team to Trump's team, for lack of a better expression.  From the cabinet, to heads of departments, to literally thousands of appointed positions, there are offices getting cleared out and new people that have to deal with moving into a new job, with much to learn and new relations to form. Each one is an individual dealing with both the professional and personal details associated with big life changes!!

And all the while government has to continue to function!!

IT IS NO WONDER THAT THERE IS CONFUSION!  Even the meanings of the words immigrant, refugee, visa holder, and green card get conflated. And circumstances associated with one class get mixed up with another class.

SO, if the President says we need a few months to deal with all this with regard to the risks associated with seven countries classified previously as having a higher risk to our national security, I AM WILLING TO GIVE HIM THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT.

I recognize that ANY DELAY, EVEN POTENTIALLY JUST ONE DAY can place a terrible hardship on a refugee, let alone an ordinary traveler.  I recognize that the pain, suffering, and struggle borne by the vast vast vast majority of the refugees who are innocent victims is unimaginable. My heart is not hardened and my political views do not define my sense of compassion or dictate my ethics.

Trusting that the President and many dozens of our congress men & women have our American best interest in heart does not make one a racist or an Islamophobe!

Sharing videos and articles which depict legitimate insights into the cultures we are dealing with, and other people's valid points of view does not make one a racist or an Islamophobe

Expressing opinions about the hypocrisy that exists with regard to how Jews and Israel have been mistreated in order to present some relative perspective is fair and understandable, and does not make one a racist or an Islamophobe!

What makes one a racists is what is in their heart!!  What promotes Islamophobia more than anything in my opinion, is three things: 1. the actions of Muslims, 2. Not allowing for and curtailing an open and respectful discussion, 3. Calling others Islamophobes over legitimate concerns and ethical desires which happen to disagree with your own!



Tuesday, January 31, 2017

The Travel Ban Fits Into A Good Spy Movie

Do you like a good spy movie?  Any good spy movie has to be built on a conspiracy theory!  So follow along with what I say.

First I need to develop the idea for the conspiracy theory and the basic premise for a good spy movie. So here it is ... in the following set of bullet points:
  • Given the President's access to Intelligence, can we all agree that the President has knowledge of terror risks that we do not? That should be an easy 'YES" answer.  
  • Trump campaigned all along that he will move the US Embassy back to Jerusalem if he became President. As we have seen in just the first two weeks of his Presidency, Trump is wasting no time on keeping his campaign promises!
  • In recent interviews since his swearing in, President Trump has not wanted to talk about his plan for our Embassy.  In my previous posts, I wrote that I believe an announcement on moving our Embassy is coming soon and that the President has gone "radio silent" on the topic because he does not want to tip off enemies of Israel and the USA.  Just yesterday the president made the remark that he had a big announcement about our Embassy to make soon. This comment came after he signed his Executive Order for the so called highly controversial Travel Ban.
  • Iran and Iraq clerical leaders, and terror agents of Iran such as Hezbollah and Hamas have all gone on record as saying that if the US Embassy in Israel is moved to Jerusalem that will be considered an act of a declaration of war. Abbas said such an announcement would "open the gates of hell." I have blogged quite a bit about this since last last fall.
  • It is fair to expect that if we do make an announcement to move our Embassy, that the risks of terror against the USA and Israel will immediately escalate exponentially. I think it is also fair to assume that our enemies will want to attack us on our home front.
  • Given the fact that both sides, the U.SA. and Iran, have broadcast there remarks about the intentions and consequences of moving the Embassy, one can make some assumptions about preparation and planning.  In other words, the President, being the only one who actually knows when he is going to make an announcement about the Embassy moving, has an obligation to make preparations for our national security, especially give the stated intentions of Iran.  On the flip side, Iran and other countries which harbor and support terrorism and often act as as agents of Iran, would also want to make preparations for acting out their threats of War should the US formally announce plans to, or actually move our Embassy.
  • Preparation for a terror attack in the USA would require Iran and its allies to move militant radical Islamic terrorists to the USA to carry out attacks.  Those operatives would need to travel to the USA, assuming all of them are not here already.  What countries would they be coming from?  Can we agree that they could come from the same countries that President Obama, and our Nation Security Agencies during his Administration, declared as harboring terrorist and sponsoring terrorism?  
  • Israel has to be involved.  The President would not want to spring the actual announcement for our US Embassy move on the Israeli Prime Minister at the same time he announces it to the public! Trump would tell Netanyahu in advance so Israeli intelligence/military planners can deal with the security threats related to the move of the USA Embassy.  
  • In a good spy movie wrapped around a conspiracy theory, the public is usually clueless.  Or better yet, they are actually played for fools by the antagonist, making challenges for the protaganist in the movie all the harder.  The public is rooting for the terror countries. 
OK ... I have set the stage for the back story of my spy movie. Now for the what the public sees.  The President announces an Executive Order banning travel from countries on the terror watch list which are aligned with Iran.  Then shortly thereafter he makes a big announcement about moving the US Embassy.

The rest of the spy movie story practically writes itself.  Matt Damon would have to be cast as a spy for the USA. Character actors would have to be cast for Putin, Bibi, and of course Trump.  Hmmm, I wonder if Alec Baldwin would turn down a fat payday to play Trump. LOL.

Reality or fiction?  Time will tell.  President Trump likes to keep us in suspense!  As for the time frame.  Well, the Travel Ban was for 90 days, so that ought to tell us a lot!

ADDED THOUGHT ON A SEPERATE BUT RELATED TOPIC:

Possible DT is delaying announcement of Safe Zones in Syria until announcement of moving of US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.  May also explain why Trump put a NO time limit on the non-acceptance of Syrian refugees in his recent Executive Order.

I've made the argument before that Syria is being deeply damaged by the loss of so many of its good citizens who are fleeing for safety. Eventually the battles in Syria need to come to an end. And when they do Syria will need to rebuild!  If millions of its citizens have left, the future challenges to Syria are are nearly insurmountable.

Syria needs those refugees!  They are the hope and future for Syria and if they've left, they take with them the hopes and future of Syria. That is one of the reasons I'm a big supporter of Safe Zones in Syria and Iraq.

Plus, such Safety Zones will be most effective if they are executed jointly with Russia, with the full supoort of Assad!!  That will require some political manueuvering by our new Secretary of State Tillerson.  This is why Trump needs to finish his Cabinet and why Congress holding up his appointments is harmful.

It is my opinion that Trump will announce major plans for safe zones in the very near future.
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Previous Posts:
Trump Has Gone Radio Silent

Radical Departure From Radical Islam


Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trump Has Gone Radio Silent

In telecommunications, radio silence or Emissions Control (EMCON) is a status in which all fixed or mobile radio stations in an area are asked to stop transmitting for safety or security reasons.

For as long as he campaigned, Trump was outspoken about the intention to move our Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. In interviews this past week, Trump has gone "radio silent" on questions about the moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem - Saying "I don't want to talk about it," Some read that as "backing off."  I say it is "radio silence."

Trump has long been a critic of telling the enemy our plans including timing in advance, because he said we were losing key military advantages.

Iran has stated that moving our Embassy would be a "declaration of war."  Words taken very seriously by Bibi and Trump.  Israel, as well as Trump and Mattis must prepare for that very reaction. When the USA and Israel announce the Embassy move in coming months, and the "gates of hell open," Iran will find itself in those fires.

It will happen very fast. Israel's intentions will be very targeted and limited, only for purposes of destroying or irreparably damage Iran's nuclear and ballistic capability.  Other than some special forces to set detonations, Israel will have very few ground troops in Iran. After taking out Iran's power grid with magnetic pulses, the attacks will come from the air.

In the process Israel will take out substantial air defense, radar and other military resources of Iran. Once they have done so, Israel will fall back and wait for and defend against any Iranian assault.

Israel may use this same timing to do serious damage to Hamas leaderhip in Gaza, snd Hezbollsh in Lebanon. This will likely require Israel to troops in harms way.  Something Israel is very reluctant to do.

In the meantime, Israel de-clawed Syria with a pre-emptive strike on the military assets that posed it any real threat. I'm convinced that Saudi Arabia stays out of the conflict and even takes satisfaction in what it is about to happen to Iran, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Same with Egypt.

I expect Russia is going to stand down, as Trump and Putin will have worked out an arrangement by the time action happens. What happens to Assad in the longer run remains to be seen, but Syria will not be targeted in upcoming Israeli offensive actions. But Russia will continue to hammer away ISIS, and the USA will be much more engaged with Russia in doing so.

I expect to see the USA declare heavily guarded safe zones for civilians in Iraq and Syria. Those will be eventually turned over to UN peacekeeping forces after things settle back down and after the UN is shaken up by defunding.  That transition is a ways down the road, but it won't hold up any of the actions I'm speaking of.

Once Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile threat has been blown up, ISIS is crushed, and safe zones have been established, Trump will lift some of the immigration bans Trump recently established.

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See Previous Post:
Radical Departure from Radical Islam

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Radical Departure From Radical Islam

What do ISIS/ISIL, Al-Qaeda, and Boko Haram all have in common?  The specific extreme Islamic belief system of Wahhabism which is centered in Saudi Arabia.  Follow Saudi money and you find one of the main sources of terror on this planet.  On the flip side is Iran with its support of terror groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Kata'ib Hizballah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Tangent: They each have their own flavor of Sharia Law, both of which oppress women! (But the founders of the Women's March don't like to talk about that!  I digress...)

Most of the terror and violence in the world is ultimately a proxy war between Saudi and Iranian clerics and oil interests. Embedded with anti-Semitic and anti-Israel hatred. The USA allied with the Saudi oil interests and Russia sided with Russian oil interests.  Billionaires like Soros, arms dealers, and others also seek influence and use their money to buy it. They perpetuate the conflict mostly financial reasons, but sometimes ideological ones as well.

The battlefield of this war has been Iraq/Iran and as of late, most conspicuously Syria. American tax payers have coughed up trillions of dollars funding this ceaseless futile conflict. Unlike Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel is neither a theocracy or a monarchy, but rather the only Democracy in the middle east with no oil interests. Israel's interest is survival from the endless efforts of both these terror sides to destroy it.

Incoming Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Trump get it. Tillerson's oil industry experience took him to the top powers in with both sides!  He has done business in both inner circles!  Trump and Tillerson will put America, and our only true ally, Israel first. Trump and Tillerson both know what we are dealing with, AND they have the one bad ass fear no one General "Mad Dog" Mattis to back them up!

In moving our Embassy to Israel, the USA is saying "fuck all you" to the oil and extreme Islamic Clerics' interests.  We are declaring to world three things:
1. No longer dependent on Middle East for energy - eat shit OPEC
2. We stand with the only Nation in the Middle East where Christians, Jews, and any other religion can be practiced freely
3. We will no longer waste our money fighting the Saudi and Iran proxy war.

Trump  and Tillerson represent a radical departure from radical Islam. And that is why Trump said in his inaugural speech he would wipe out ISIS.  Iran already got the message with respect to the Iranian nuclear deal. And, watch how quickly they threaten to develop nuclear weapons! Gee, did you really think they meant it when they said their nuclear program was only for peaceful purposes?!!  Really ...

"Acceptance requires courage, but courage does not require acceptance."

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Previous posts:

Bibi Grabs Victory from Defeat

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Now What? I'd Call It A Compromise

The Women's March was an exceptional protest and a huge catharsis for America! Now what?

The world sent Trump a powerful message through an amazing and well organized Women's March.  Not just in the Capital, but in many cities, big and small across the USA and even in some International locations. How could anyone not be impressed by the show of solidarity for the issues - Right to Choose, Women's Health, and Immigration.

The timing could not have been better for maximum impact! Surely the event drew attention away from Trump's inauguration.  Even large crowds seem to compound, and add further humiliation to the criticism that Trump's inaugural crowd, or hands, are not as big as Obama's.

It had it all - pink pussy hats, tons of great grass root posters, popular speakers.  Wonderful to see families marching together. It was beautiful most of all because it was highly peaceful.

I think some Anonymous protesters ambushed the occasion and showed despicable behavior!  But that should not reflect "on" the Women.  That was the ugly side of hate. And, a strong contrast to peaceful protest that we need to all take note of!

If Trump needed to get a message, a good part of America sent it! Where do you think he goes with it?  Where do you think Congress goes with it?  Where does America go now?

I will take a stab at what I foresee ....

1. Will his Supreme Court Justice nominations be less Conservative? Nope. And they will be confirmed.  Nonetheless, I do not believe, for Constitution reasons, that women will lose the right to choose to have an abortion. By the same token, taxpayers may be less involved in funding it or supporting the process in indirect ways.  Is that a win or a lose for the marchers?  I'd call it a compromise.

2. As for "Women's Health," it gets a bit more nuanced.  Firstly, when we are talking about Women's Health, the primarily political target is Planned Parenthood.  That gets more tricky because it takes in the thorny topic of abortion. My answer on that component is in answer #1 above.  As for access to all other reproductive care, I believe is unfathomable that women will lose access to screenings, and essential treatment.  But it is conceivable that the delivery mechanism, Planned Parenthood, could be altered in some way. Nonetheless, care will be accessible. I'd call it a compromise.

3. When it comes to immigration, there are two primary aspects.

A) To begin with, what happens to illegal immigrants that are here in America already?  My answer has a few parts.
i.  Those with illegal aliens with a violent/criminal record will get deported.  This includes any with suspected terror ties. And when Homeland Security, the FBI, CIA, and even State Police find suspicious behavior, America will have a more expedient means of deporting non-citizens, whether or not they are documented.
ii.  Children already born in America stay, but the laws will get changed on that going forward so that childbirth can not be exploited as an immigration strategy.
iii. The vast remaining portion of illegal immigrants will be offered a legitimate and reasonable process for becoming "documented" and legal tax paying residents with a legitimate path toward citizenship.

B) We will tighten up our borders to reduce illegal entry into America.  And, making it here illegally will not be a pathway to legal residency or citizenship in the future.  This will translate into a "wall," but NOT the one conjured up by Trump's ridiculous rhetoric!  By the same token, at certain sections of our borders with both Mexico and even Canada, where illegal migration patterns are prevalent, more secure barriers will be erected and new technologies and security methods will be deployed. Plus, travel visas, customs inspections, and screenings will be "hardened" to make it more difficult for a gang like the ones who perpetrated 9.11 to get away with it again.  Answer A.i. above factors into this as well.

All and all, when it comes to the the three primary objectives, Right to Choose, Women's Health, and Immigration, I'd call it a compromise. And when all is said done, that is what America needs to be better at. Listening and compromising!

Now America, please STOP IT.  Everyone who is mocking and trying to humiliate and bully anyone, please STOP!   Please show respect and even greater empathy and kindness for others, including our President, who must do the same!

P.S. I really appreciated seeing Libertarian points of views represented!  Video interviews on Reason site.

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Previous posts:

Speechless

Inauguration Day - Yin-Yang Day


The Sacred Oath


Saturday, January 21, 2017

It Is Clear


Academia, the mainstream media, the celebrity presence which dominates American culture, and Liberals apparently believe America is now being led by a fascist who hates minorities, immigrants, gays and everything that Liberals stand for.  To their thinking, President Trump would be fine if Russia reassembled the Soviet Union and NATO collapsed.

Fortunately they all got the Presidential election wrong, Trump wrong, and America wrong too.

Since Obama became President, the Democrats have lost approximately 1000 elected seats, including congress, governorships, etc. Which is to say that what led to Trump's victory is greater than Trump alone.

The Republicans control of all branches of the USA government, including the Supreme Court with the eventual nomination and acceptance of 2-3 conservative Justices means that yesterday, after coming off 8 years of Obama, we have witnessed the most dramatic shift in American politics I think any of us can recall since Reagan.

Obama enjoys great popularity, even though opinions about Washington and congress have been awful. Trump, on the other hand, is terribly disliked by academia, mainstream media, Hollywood, and Liberals.  Which may be a factor in why he starts as President with very low popularity.  And yet recently, consumer and business confidence which has been lacking for the level needed for investment and growth, turned much higher in an apparent reaction to Trump's election.

The work begins! But, like the protesters crashing through streets and destroying property, there will be many who aim to destroy Trump's efforts to make America Greater.  It is sad to see so many Americans praying for the President to fail -- Better that America falter and fall than Trump succeed.  Even in some cases, hoping for his death.  That it not American unity or the kind of American spirit which will ever make America better.  It is just shameful partisanship.

But this election, and the thousands of other races around the country in tens of thousands of counties, have made it clear enough.  Like it or not, the pendulum is going to swing and America is going to change. This country is going to be given back to the people!

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Previous posts:

Speechless

Inauguration Day - Yin-Yang Day


The Sacred Oath